Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241624 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1124 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AT 15Z. UPDATED THE POPS AS THE RAINFALL WAS EXITING THE EASTERN ZONES AT 15Z. LOW LEVEL JET WAS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING AND PERSISTENT COLD COVER MIXING WILL BE MORE LIMITED. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT 14Z AND WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TODAY. STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARM FRONT THROUGH AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING. RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS. CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC. LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW. FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR S CT. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED N OF THE AIRSPACE AND WILL CONTINUE HEADING NORTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. SHRA ENDS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY IFR TO START. BETTER CHANCES OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KEWR/KTEB/KSWF LATE MORNING/AFTN. S WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 KT STILL PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH MID-MORNING EAST OF NYC. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN. FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES NOT OCCUR. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN. FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES NOT OCCUR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THRU THIS AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FCST. ACCUMULATING SNOW PROBABLE FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. N WINDS 10-15 KT AM...INCR 15-20 KT EVENING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. .THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY. WNW 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT. .FRIDAY...VFR. NW 10-15 KT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. && .MARINE...
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WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON THE WATERS WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE WIND BEGINS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ISSUED A DENSE FOG THROUGH 00Z ON ALL THE WATERS. STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND LLJ THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN GALES ON ALL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY AFTER 06Z TUE. END END OF REMAINING WATERS REMAINS 23Z TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR MAY FALL BELOW A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE. OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN LI...NYC...AND COASTAL CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING THE THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER... LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH NEWARK..............75/1979..........72 BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........66 CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........70 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........71 JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68 ISLIP...............63/2001..........67 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008. NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BC MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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