Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020604 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 204 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RADAR COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECREASING AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS. DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT LOWER...A TESTAMENT TO THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...TOOK OUT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS MEANS A LESS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...DESPITE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PREVIOUSLY NOTED. DESPITE THE LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.73 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ACCOMPANYING URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SOME SMALLER STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN NJ...COULD ALSO EXCEED BANKFULL. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR THIS THREAT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MAINE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT...GRADUALLY GETS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N/NW. A TRANSITION TO MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN AND DECREASING PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY AXIS GETS PUSHED FARTHER SE. FRONTOGENETIC/DEFORMATION BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED WITH DEEP LIFT OF THE MOIST AIRMASS. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR THIS THREAT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND PCPN...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES. GRADUALLY DRYING FROM NW TO SE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR JUNE...WITH LOWS WILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE NIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK COUNTY AND A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES FROM NEW YORK CITY TO SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK COUNTY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND TEMPS WILL FALL JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES OFFSHORE AS WELL. TEMPS WILL WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LIKEWISE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THAT BOUNDARY AND IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...VARYING FROM IFR CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS...WITH VISIBILITIES VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL...CONTINUES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST...030 TO 060 TRUE...10 TO 15 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF CHANGING CONDITIONS. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS. .SATURDAY...SHOWERS ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. && .MARINE... A STEADY MARGINAL SCA E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND WEAKEN TUESDAY...WITH SEAS THEN GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. ONCE SEAS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE NIGHT INTO WED....HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 00Z WED FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT FROM ANY TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW FLASHY STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN NE NJ...COULD EXCEED BANKFULL DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 36 HRS. ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED INTO TUE EVE BEFORE COMING TO AND END. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078-080- 176>179. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV NEAR TERM...JP/NV/DW SHORT TERM...JP/NV/DW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JMC MARINE...MPS/NV HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV

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