Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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089 FXUS61 KOKX 301931 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 331 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front passes tonight. High pressure then builds down from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, then retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold front approaches from the west on Friday, then moves across the region early this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Deep moisture feed occurs along the eastern seaboard ahead of weak upper trough, and surface cold front tonight. With partial sunshine and increased instability nw of NYC, showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front will make their way toward the area this evening. Not sure how well this area holds together due to weak shear, along with waning daytime instability. Will continue with chance pops along the front tonight, and higher coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms remains just offshore of Long Island as well, along the deep moisture axis from the Carolinas. Patchy fog will develop, and is in fact continuing along the southeast coast of Long Island. Mos blend for overnight lows with temps in the 60s. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic facing beaches through this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... It appears that weak surface front stalls and weakens nearby Tuesday. Mid and upper level trough passes to the north across New England during the day. Drier air will filter in from the northwest as high pressure builds from canada. In general, expect dry conditions with sunshine during the day, and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies at night. Daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, per MOS. Lows Tuesday night should range from the 50s across the interior to the mid 60s in and around NYC under better radiational cooling conditions. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure on Wednesday results in a sunny day. With an onshore flow and limited mixing depth, have gone close to superblend for high temps as MET mos looked too warm and MAV mos looked too cool. High pressure shifts farther east on Thursday but should still keep all rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie well to our south. Winds and mixing depth will be similar to Wednesday`s, but maybe a little more in the way of cloud cover. High temp forecast is therefore slightly cooler than Wednesday. A slow-moving cold front then brings low chances of showers to roughly the western half of the cwa. Better overall chances then arrive Friday into Friday night as the front moves through, but pops are capped at chance for now. Timing of the frontal passage is still in question, but kept a slight chance of showers on Saturday. Saturday could however end up being entirely dry across the area. Enough CAPE is progged in the area to mention thunder Friday through Saturday. Friday`s high temps look to be at or a couple degrees below normal, with Saturday being a few degrees higher than normal. Upper troughing over the region begins on Sunday and lasts into Monday. This will help a broad surface low shift into the area during this period. Whether or not a secondary surface low forms and passes nearby is uncertain, but the parent low and associated fronts present chances of rain/showers/thunderstorms during this period. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will approach late tonight moving across early Tuesday. Mainly VFR for city terminals and to the NW with IFR and below to the east. Until cold front moves through early Tuesday Morning, eastern terminals will likely stay MVFR or below. The uncertainty is the duration of IFR and below and whether or not this moves farther westward late tonight bringing a return to IFR for city and nearby terminals. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly northwest of the city terminals through early this evening. Outside of KSWF where VCTS is mentioned early this evening, no other mention of thunder is in TAFs. By late evening and overnight, there will still be chances of showers towards the coast along with patchy fog development. Winds will be S-SW 5-10 kt, locally higher at JFK, LGA, ISP and GON. Winds become NNW 5-10 kt behind cold front early Tuesday before sea breeze begins to form near coastline, returning wind directions to S-SW once again. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: There could be occasional gusts up to 20 kt late this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds could be 3-5 kt higher than forecast late this afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds could be 3-5 kt higher than forecast late this afternoon. KTEB TAF Comments: Winds could be 3-5 kt higher than forecast late this afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR may last 1-2 hours later than indicated in the TAF. KISP TAF Comments: End time of IFR uncertain and could vary 1-3 hours compared to forecast. Winds could be stronger than fcst late this afternoon with ocnl gusts 20-25 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Tuesday through Saturday... .Tuesday Afternoon-Wednesday Night...VFR. .Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt. .Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions. .Friday-Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Fog over the eastern waters will be dense. Extended the dense fog advisory for the eastern waters tonight. As a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters through Tuesday, expect southerly winds to remain fairly light. Winds turn to the north Tuesday night as high pressure builds. For now, it appears that there will not be a significant enough swell to bring seas to SCA levels through Tuesday night. Sub-sca conditions are expected Wednesday with winds less than 20 kt and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft. An easterly wind increases on Thursday, building seas up to 5 ft on the ocean along with some gusts up to 25 kt possible. Winds then become lighter Thursday night and Friday, however remain onshore. A lingering swell could therefore prolong 5 ft seas into this period. Otherwise, sub-sca conds are likely through Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread significant rainfall is not expected through Tuesday night. A few heavier showers and possible thunderstorms could result in local urban and poor drainage flooding this evening. Thereafter, no widespread significant rainfall is expected through the upcoming weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345- 350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JM MARINE...JC/PW HYDROLOGY...JC/PW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.