Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161932 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 332 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A gusty northwest flow continues behind a cold front which has moved well offshore. A broad area of high pressure is building in from the west and will remain in control through next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Have made some slight tweaks with regard to temperatures, dew points, and winds. Peak gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue into the early evening. The high deck of clouds is now thinning out and moving east. Clear skies set in tonight region wide as the wind gusts are now expected to hold on for the most part into the overnight. The only exception is for far northwestern and interior zones where winds will diminish slightly. The question is whether winds can diminish enough for patchy frost to form in parts of the interior. Therefore the Frost Advisory will remain in effect for early Tuesday morning, however confidence for frost formation is lower now due to the latest short term model trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The winds will slacken a touch for the morning, before the winds gust for a few hours by the late morning and early afternoon. The winds will then subside quickly for the remainder of Tuesday afternoon as surface ridging builds closer from the south. Another slightly below seasonable day with the cold pool remaining overhead. Temps likely only topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s once again. Dry and seasonably cool for Tuesday night with the chance of some patchy frost across far interior zones once again. Confidence is marginal, so later shifts will have to evaluate whether a Frost Advisory will be needed for late Tuesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of the period. Initially, a short wave trough over central Canada and the northern plains translates east during the mid week period, riding over top a broad, flat ridge over the southern half of the country. This feature sends a dry cold frontal passage through the region Thursday night. Thereafter, the upper air pattern becomes amplified with a trough moving into the western U.S., with heights building across the east. While amplified, the flow is still fairly progressive with the trough approaching the east early next week. The associated cold front approaches Monday into next Tuesday. Throughout the period, expect abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures. Daytime highs will be around 70, with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front continues to move offshore, high pressure builds in from the west. Conditions will remain VFR through the period. Clouds will gradually dissipate from west to east late this afternoon and this evening. Gusty northwest flow will prevail through much of the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than forecast. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than forecast. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts may be stronger than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday-Friday...VFR. && .MARINE...
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The highest confidence in SCA wind gusts are for this evening into the first part of the overnight as a secondary cold front swings through. Therefore Small Craft Advisories continue overnight for the ocean waters, and then fall below SCA levels early Tuesday morning for the near shore waters. Winds and seas are expected to fall below SCA levels Tue morning for the western ocean waters. A SCA will remain in effect due to wind gusts for the eastern ocean waters, but only through the late morning. Otherwise seas will remain below criteria for Tue afternoon through the mid week under the control of high pressure. High pressure prevails through the upcoming weekend with sub SCA conditions. Marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday into Thursday night on the eastern ocean waters ahead of a weak cold front with SW winds gusting up to 20 kt.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through next weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>008. NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>070. NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/DW NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...BC MARINE...JE/DW HYDROLOGY...JE/DW

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