Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190235 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 935 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... FCST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN. WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN OVERNIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIND CHILLS DROP TO AROUND 10 FOR THE CITY AND COASTAL SECTIONS...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF THE DAY MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE LIMITS OUR MIXING...AND BASED ON FORECAST TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXED LAYER...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE TIED OR SET FOR ALL 6 AREA CLIMATE SITES...WHICH CURRENTLY STAND IN THE MID 30S. A WARM FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE A LITTLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE SO OVER LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT...WHERE SW WINDS ARRIVE OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THESE EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. LATEST NWP CONTINUES TO KEEP JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SO EXPECTING A DRY PASSAGE. WITH A GOOD WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING...WE WILL END UP WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY IN SPITE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MOSTLY 40-45. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE TEENS INLAND AND MID 20S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...USHERING IN WARMER AIR AND ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDS WITH UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS. WNW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH 07-09Z FOR NYC METRO TERMINALS...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 12-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WED MORNING. WINDS AND GUSTS SUBSIDE QUICKER ACROSS OUTLYING AIRPORTS...WITH A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE WED MORN. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LEFT OF 310 MAG THROUGH WED MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 20KT LIKELY AT KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON AFT 20Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. .THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SW WIND 15-20KT WITH G30KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS G25KT POSSIBLE. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. .SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE LATE IN RAIN. && .MARINE... GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH 12Z WEDS WITH A SCA ON NY HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 15Z WEDS. WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SUB-ADVSY WINDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY LINGER AT UP TO 5 FT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY WED NGT INTO THURSDAY...WITH MINIMAL GALES POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO A PORTION OF FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDING TO BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .CLIMATE... SOME RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR SET WITH THE COLD AIR FORECAST. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY... NYC....18/1936 JFK....27/2008 LGA....28/2008 EWR....19/1936 BDR....24/1986 ISP....23/1997 THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY... NYC....34/1882 JFK....37/2008 LGA....35/1951 EWR....35/1951 BDR....35/2008 ISP....35/2008 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338- 345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...NV MARINE...JC/FIG HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG CLIMATE...

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