Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161736 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 136 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds to the north this weekend. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Jose will drift northward in the Western Atlantic waters this weekend into the middle of next week, with the potential for it to come close to the East Coast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. By late week, high pressure builds across the area once again. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Updated forecast to include scattered showers along sea breeze boundaries. Isolated to scattered showers for most all other areas with a mix of sun and clouds for this afternoon. Warm and humid conditions continue with temperatures reaching several degrees above normal. An isolated shower is possible as slow moving and weakening upper trough passes. Instability parameters appear weak, so will not mention thunder. There is a moderate risk of rip currents, becoming high this afternoon across Atlantic beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Persistence forecast as humidity levels remain high and winds light through this time frame. Ridge builds, with continued warm and humid weather anticipated. Stratus and fog should redevelop tonight, burn off Sunday, with partly sunny skies expected during the day. Temperatures remain above normal through this time frame. Cannot rule out an isolated shower Sunday afternoon, mainly NW of NYC. More fog is possible Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Please continue to monitor NHC forecasts for official information about tropical cyclone Jose, at WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV Long period swells from tropical cyclone Jose will increase the threat for dangerous rip currents, high surf and dune erosion into the middle of next week. A blocking pattern is expected to develop early next week as a long wave trough intensifies in the west, with the high pressure downstream amplifying across the east. An onshore flow will increase between Jose approaching from the south and high pres over the northeast resulting in near normal temperatures on Monday and Tuesday. Models are starting to come into better agreement with the track of Jose, although it is still too early for specifics. The GFS remains the fastest, but the 00z EC has sped up and is not as slow as its 12z run. UKMET is comparable to the GFS although slightly east and the NAM through 84 hours is slightly slower than the EC. All turn Jose to the right as it approaches 40N but strength of the system and whether it passes inside or outside of the 40N 70W could make considerable difference in the intensity of winds, coastal impacts and rain. The official NHC wind speed probabilities have increased slightly across Suffolk County and most of SE CT with a 20-30 percent chance of tropical storm force winds (39 to 73 mph) developing on Tuesday. The remainder of the area remains in 10 to 20 percent range. It`s important to note that typical forecast track errors 4 to 5 days out generally range from around 175 to 225 miles, respectively. Despite the uncertainty, long period swells ahead of the system will allow surf to build and increase the risk of dangerous rip currents. The NWS will continue to monitor the progression of Jose closely. Please stay tuned for subsequent updates. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MVFR/IFR conditions will improve as stratus/fog lifts. VFR conditions are expected late this afternoon. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon. Coverage remains too low to include in the TAFs. By tonight, stratus and fog return. IFR or lower ceilings and visibilities will be likely. Light winds become SE this afternoon. KLGA may hang onto a light NE/E wind before veering. Winds become light and variable again tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday...MVFR/IFR in morning fog/stratus improving to VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in chance showers at night. .Tuesday...Mainly MVFR in showers. Gusty NE winds possible, watching Tropical cyclone Jose. .Wednesday...Any MVFR conditions improve to VFR. Gusty N winds possible, watching Tropical cyclone Jose. .Thursday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Light winds will prevail across all waters this weekend. Swells will however increase, and ocean waters are expected to observe seas up to 5 or 6 ft by this evening. The SCA for hazardous seas has been extended through Sunday night. As Jose lift north through the Western Atlantic seas on the ocean waters will continue to build into the 10 to 15 ft range and could reach 15 to 20 ft on Tuesday. Seas near the entrance to eastern LI Sound from the ocean will also become rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range. Winds could start reaching SCA levels Mon night, and then gale force by Tue morning as the pressure gradient tightens between Jose and high pressure over the Northeast. The timing and hazards on the coastal waters will all depend on the strength and track of Jose. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend. Any hydrologic impacts from developing tropical cyclone Jose depend largely on forecast track and intensity. Please continue to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts for official information about Jose. www.nhc.noaa.gov www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will rise this weekend into the middle of next week with the approach of a new moon. These rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells building from Jose, will increase the threat for high surf, dune collision, and localized overwashes along the ocean beachfront Sunday through early next week. Coastal flooding may also become an issue early next week. The magnitude of these threats will depend on the future strength and track of Jose. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/PW NEAR TERM...JC/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...BC MARINE...24/PW HYDROLOGY...24/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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