Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 011742 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 142 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HAVE UPGRADED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH BASED ON BEACH REPORTS...AND CONTINUED COMBO OF INCOMING 3-4 FT LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SW WINDS 15 KT INTO EARLY EVENING. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS. HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE TO...BUT ANY AIRPORT COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 21-23Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BEFORE BECOMING LESS FREQUENT BY 21-23Z. WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO THE NW BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU... .SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. SW/S FLOW. .MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS LATE. .MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S WIND...SHIFTING TO W. .WED...VFR. W FLOW. .THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS. && .MARINE... BUOYS WERE NOT MEETING SCA CRITERIA YET...BUT SHOULD DO SO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. SCA START TIME PUSHED FORWARD TO 4 PM...AND END TIME TO 2 AM. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW SHORT TERM...DS/PW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...PW MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS/PW HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.