Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220839 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 439 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SWING TO THE S OF LI TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHC ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING...PIVOTING SWD AND THEN WRAPPING BACK AROUND FROM THE SE LATE THIS AFTN. THE POP FORECAST WAS COMPRISED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM...SREF AND SPC WRF DUE TO THE BETTER RESOLUTION. THE WIND FORECAST HOWEVER...EXCLUDED THE NAM AS IT IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TOO WEAK. GFS/CMC/EC/SREF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY BACK WITH THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECT 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH NEAR IN THE METRO AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART ON THU. TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INLAND. STORM JUST S OF NASSAU/QUEENS HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOVEMENT. DUAL POL ESTIMATES STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 AND 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES. THANK GOODNESS THIS IS OVER THE WATER!! HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE VICINITY OF LONG BEACH HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS/NASSAU. HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE. TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. OVERALL TODAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. DO NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 4 MILES...UNLESS ANY AIRPORT EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME. ON AND OFF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NYC METRO THIS MORNING. AFTER 12Z THOUGH...TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. NEXT BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME FREQUENT AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. ALSO...IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY THU. GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU EVE. MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT 1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$

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