Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 300405 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1105 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... One weather system departs this evening and another moves in right behind it for Wednesday with another round of much needed rain. High pressure returns for late week into the weekend, with only a weak cold frontal passage on Friday. Another low could impact the area Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Just a few showers left across Long Island and SE CT late this evening. Meanwhile skies are clearing as WSW flow aloft picks up in the wake of departing low pressure over New England and scours out most of the moisture above the boundary layer. These winds may prevent widespread fog formation initially, but as they diminish, combo of partial clearing and high BL moisture should promote development of radiation fog overnight. NARRE-TL continues to emphasize coastal areas while GFS LAMP hits most areas with fog. If correct parts of the area may need a dense fog advy late tonight into the early morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Stratiform rain moves in from the west by late morning. A tad more in instability and thus have included TS for the evening when LI`s get down to 0. Another inch or so of QPF. NWP in decent agreement...though may be on the high end of the QPF. Temps about the same as today. Rain exits after midnight.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure and cold front move away from the region with surface high pressure building into the region. Aloft, the upper low will be centered to our north with a somewhat cyclonic flow over our area. Expect a breezy day, but still with temperatures above normal as cold air advection will be weak and gradual on a west flow. Highs will climb into the middle and upper 50s. Friday and Saturday will be cooler as temperatures aloft cool. A weak shortwave moves across the area Friday evening, however it should pass through the region dry. Not much of a change in the pattern for Saturday, just slightly cooler. Temperatures on Friday are expected in the upper 40s and lower 50s. For Saturday, expect highs in the 40s. There are still some differences among the global models regarding the next system to potentially affect the forecast area. Previous models runs showed a dry forecast from the GFS and a wet forecast from the ECMWF. The ECMWF continues to trended toward the drier GFS. In fact, the latest 12z ECMWF keeps conditions dry Sunday night and Monday. Would prefer to keep at least chance pops in the forecast to avoid the flip-flop forecasting. So for now, will keep Sunday dry, but keep the pops in for Sunday night and Monday. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A series of frontal system pass through the region during the TAF period. The first round of rain is coming to an end with some fog expected to develop later on tonight with a second round of rain Wednesday into Wednesday night. Dense fog will be possible overnight into early Wednesday morning. Mainly IFR conditions are anticipated but some periodic variations are possible. This evening, there could be some time where mainly MVFR/VFR conditions prevail with lifting stratus. For Wednesday, the end time of the fog could extend a few hours longer than forecast. Wind speeds are lowering with wind speeds of less than 10 kt through much of the TAF period. Southerly winds will veer to the southwest to west tonight. Winds will back to the southeast to south again on Wednesday and gust to 15-20 kt Wednesday night. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments are likely as there could be fluctuations between flight categories. This evening, MVFR may persist with less IFR. LIFR could extend a few hours longer than forecast for Wednesday. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments are likely as there could be fluctuations between flight categories. This evening, MVFR may persist with less IFR. LIFR could extend a few hours longer than forecast for Wednesday. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments are likely as there could be fluctuations between flight categories. This evening, MVFR may persist with less IFR. LIFR could extend a few hours longer than forecast for Wednesday. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments are likely as there could be fluctuations between flight categories. This evening, MVFR may persist with less IFR. LIFR could extend a few hours longer than forecast for Wednesday. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments are likely as there could be fluctuations between VLIFR and IFR. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments are likely as there could be fluctuations between flight categories. This evening, conditions could end up bring more MVFR. LIFR could extend a few hours longer than forecast for Wednesday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night...IFR with rain showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Southerly wind gusts up to 20 kt for coastal terminals. .Thursday-Friday...VFR with westerly flow. Wind gusts to 20 kt for Thursday. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR with northwesterly flow. && .MARINE...
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SCA replaces gale warning on the ocean and winds have diminished. No flags on the sound/harbor/bays. A marine dense fog advy may be necessary overnight into Wed morning until rain arrives. Light winds Wednesday morning increase through the day into the evening with an SCA likely being posted for all waters. The SCA conditions remain likely on the ocean waters through Saturday as lingering seas and winds gusts continue. On the non-ocean waters, some gusts to 25 kt may continue on the eastern sound and bays into Friday night. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on the area waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Another inch of QPF for Wednesday, generally less than today. More puddle and poor drainage flooding. The most quickly responding streams, such as the Rahway at Springfield and the Hohokus Brook, could approach or just barely exceed bank full. This potential is not widespread enough to warrant a flood watch. No significant PCPN expected from Thursday through at least Sunday. A chance of PCPN returns Sunday night into Monday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Tongue NEAR TERM...Goodman/Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/Goodman/Tongue HYDROLOGY...Tongue

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