Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251130 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 730 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT AND BRINGS RAIN ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STAYING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM CENTRAL CANADA LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE MADE FOR THIS MORNING WITH OTHERWISE NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE. THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK. WLY FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRES FIELD OVER THE AREA BRINGS VRB WIND DIRECTION. THE KPOU LOW THE FIRST FEATURE TO DRAW IN WINDS...THEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE WIND FIELD RESPONDS TO LOWERING PRES TO THE W AS A DEVELOPING FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A WARM FRONT AS IT REACHES THE AREA LATE TNGT...BUT WILL THEN STOP IT/S NWD PROGRESS AND RETURN SWD AS A COLD FRONT TUE. AS THETAE INCREASES TNGT...SO WILL THE CHC FOR SHWRS. INCLUDED A SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE PER THE NAM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... AS A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND STRAIGHT FROM HUDSON BAY...THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD AS A COLD FRONT. HAVE RELIED ON THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF MODEL DATA TO PINPOINT THE PROGRESS AND POSITION OF THE FRONT. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT AS OF NOW THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GUIDANCE TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT SHARP TEMP GRADIENTS...SO FCST TEMPS WERE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS 2M DATA. THIS MEANS A 20-30 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA ATTM PROGGED TO BE N OF THE FRONT TUE. IN THESE AREAS...PERIODS OF RAIN THE FCST. THE EXTREME SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA...SUCH AS UNION COUNTY NJ PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO NYC...MAY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. IN AND JUST N OF THESE AREAS...FCST IS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND A CHC FOR TSTMS. ANY TSTMS N OF THE FRONT WILL BE ELEVATED. AREAS ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY WOULD BEAR WATCHING FOR SVR...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR INHIBITING SB INSTABILITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW BASED IN SOUTHEAST CANADA SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SOUTH OF THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BRUSHING THE AREA ON ITS SOUTHWARD EDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFTING NORTH FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THEREAFTER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL FURTHER DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL HAVE ANOTHER ASSOCIATED JET STREAK THAT WILL BE MOVING IN. THERE IS AN EMBEDDED SMALLER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STAYING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BY WHICH TIME THE LOW WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY. THEN UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY THOUGH ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING STRONG IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN CANADA...BRINGING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TODAY THEN DRIFTS EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT...APPROACHING THE TERMINALS TOWARD 12Z. VFR WITH A MID DECK CEILING UNTIL 4Z TO 07Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS AND FOG DEVELOP. TOWARD 12Z CONDITIONS LOWER FURTHER...TO LOW END MVFR AND HIGH IFR IN SHOWERS AND FOG WITH MODERATE SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NYC TERMINALS AND WEST WITH THE SHOWERS. THE CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASE TOWARD 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND INCREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...AND DIMINISH...POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE WIND DIRECTIONS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DIRECTIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SET UP IN THE VICINITY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS. THEE IS A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY NYC TERMINALS AND WEST. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. .FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRES DRIFTS OVER THE ATLC TODAY AND A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYS IMPACTS THE WATERS TNGT AND TUE. WINDS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN TUE. SCA SEAS LINGER ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUB SCA SEAS THEREAFTER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. REGARDING WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO STAY BELOW SCA FOR ALL THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT AND TUE. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM NEAR TERM...JMC/JM SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MET MARINE...JMC/JM HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM

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