Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231148 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 748 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary stalls south of the area today while high pressure builds to the north. By tonight, a wave of low pressure will move along the frontal boundary south of the region. Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday, followed by low pressure Thursday into Friday. High pressure returns for the beginning half of the upcoming holiday weekend, but low pressure may again bring some unsettled weather during the latter half. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The weak frontal boundary and associated rain has moved well east of the area. North flow behind the boundary will advect in drier air allowing any left over morning fog to gradually erode away. Mainly mid and high-level cloud cover is expected for the remainder of the day in broad southwest flow ahead of a larger scale upper low and a series of short waves that will bring episodic rain to the region this week. High temperatures will be closer to climatological normals, generally in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Mid and high-level clouds will continue to increase ahead of a short-wave that will contribute to a deepening area of low pressure of the coast. With the system passing to the south, the best chance of any rainfall will be closer to the coast, particularly across eastern Long Island and Connecticut overnight. Cloud cover and somewhat stronger northeast flow will keep low temperatures close to normal. By afternoon, the low departs giving way to south flow and near normal temperatures that will be slightly cooler near the coast in onshore flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern continues through the long term period. Another round of rainfall arrives late Wednesday night, with rainfall being most likely Thursday into Thursday night. Some elevated instability should be present, so will keep isolated thunder for Thursday and Thursday night. There could also be some fog for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a warm front not too far off to the south. The low exits to the NE on Friday, but the threat of showers will remain in the forecast. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Thursday, then return to more seasonable levels on Friday. Weak high pressure then returns Friday night and Saturday. Will go with a dry forecast and slightly above normal temperatures for now. Another low pressure system is then expected for Sunday and Monday, brining yet another round of unsettled weather to the region. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak high pressure will build across the area this morning and then offshore this afternoon. Low pressure passes to the southeast late tonight. VFR with mid and high level clouds increasing from the SW through the day. There is a low chance of light rain late overnight, mainly at the coastal terminals. N-NE at 5-10KT this morning. An afternoon seabreeze is probable at all but KSWF/KHPN. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of a late afternoon seabreeze. KISP TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Wednesday...MVFR possible at the coastal terminals in the morning. .Wednesday night-Friday night...MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday. E winds G20kt with LLWS possible. .Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels through tonight. Overnight, an initially weak pressure gradient will tighten as an area of low pressure moves up the coast. As such, winds will increase allowing seas to gradually build to SCA levels by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Seas may remain elevated on the ocean through Wednesday night. Low pressure will approach the waters Thursday night through Friday night, bringing the next chance if advisory level conditions. Seas will increase again to 5-6 ft late Thursday night and continue through Friday. Seas finally diminish Friday night to below 5 ft. Wind gust through this time will primarily remain between 20-25 kt. Conditions fall back below SCA levels for the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated tonight through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding thresholds may be reached with Wednesday night`s high tide cycle for southern sections of NY Harbor, the south shore back bays of western LI/Queens/Brooklyn, and western Long Island. A better chance of minor flooding arrives for Thursday night, with northern NY Harbor and parts of central LI sound also included. Chances then lower on Friday night as winds likely shift offshore. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MD NEAR TERM...BC/MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...DW MARINE...BC/MD HYDROLOGY...BC/MD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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