Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190816 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 416 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move north today as tropical cyclone Jose moves up the coast. The area will then be impacted by Jose into the day on Wednesday. Weak high pressure builds over the area Thursday through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly tracks to the southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As the pressure gradient increases between Jose and a departing high, winds will increase today, mainly across eastern Long Island and far southeastern Connecticut. With the approach of Jose rain will overspread the area today, with the stronger onshore flow across eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. A slight shift eastward and latest satellite imagery shows a tighter precipitation gradient on the western periphery of Jose. Therefore, have lowered precipitation amounts across the area. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 60s. With long period swells allowing surf to build, dangerous beach conditions will continue this evening. A high risk of rip currents and high surf advisory remain in effect for Atlantic beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Northeasterly winds continue to increase this evening, with the highest winds and strongest gusts expected across eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain will continue through tonight before tapering off Wednesday afternoon with dry conditions thereafter. In addition to the winds and rain, dangerous conditions will persist along the coast, where minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible. High surf and high risk of rip currents will be seen along the Atlantic Ocean beaches. See the hydrology and coastal flooding sections below for more information. Temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s, with highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds across the area on Thursday. Winds will be on a downward trend as the pressure gradient weakens Thursday and then remains nearly the same going through the weekend. A persistent northerly flow is expected. Highs are forecast be mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows low to mid 60s are forecast most nights with lows a little lower Thursday night and Friday night with a range more in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Rough surf with locally higher waves will be likely at the beaches during Wednesday night through Friday evening, when the ocean seas are forecast to range 7-10 ft. This will be mainly east of Fire Island Inlet due to continuous long period swell. There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast of Jose late this week into this weekend. Subsequent forecast could very well have changes. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose from the National Hurricane Center.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure building north of the area will be shunted northward in advance of tropical cyclone Jose. The official track of Jose is farther eastward than previous advisories. As such, ceilings farther west across NYC terminals, KSWF and KHPN may be higher than forecast, with higher wind gusts possible as well. Otherwise, mainly IFR to MVFR with periods of rain beginning early Tuesday morning gradually becoming MVFR to VFR by afternoon with the exception of perhaps KGON and KISP where tropical storm conditions are possible. NE flow generally around 10 kt will steadily increase this morning, with gusts likely by afternoon. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Ceiling and gusts may be higher than forecast. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is RED, which implies slant range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Ceiling and gusts may be higher than forecast. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is RED, which implies slant range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Ceiling and gusts may be higher than forecast. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Ceiling and gusts may be higher than forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Ceiling and gusts may be higher than forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Ceiling and gusts may be higher than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower with periods of rain, mainly east of NYC terminals. NE winds becoming N and remaining strong. .Wednesday...MVFR or lower improves to VFR. Nly winds with speeds depending on the exact track of Jose. .Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city terminals. .Saturday...VFR. NE winds around 10-15 kt.
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&& .MARINE...
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As Jose lifts north through the Western Atlantic today, seas on the ocean waters will continue to increase, building to 10 to 15 ft by this afternoon, and 12 to 18 ft by tonight. Seas near the entrance to the LI Sound from the ocean will also become rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range by tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the New York Harbor and the western Long Island Sound beginning this morning as sustained winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Higher ocean seas at least of 5 ft are forecast Wednesday night through Saturday. Highest waves are forecast Wednesday night through Friday with 7-10 ft on the ocean. Wind gusts exceed SCA criteria with values near 25kt mainly on the ocean waters from Moriches to Montauk out 20nm while late Thursday night into Friday could have 25kt gusts spread farther west into ocean waters south of Fire Island Inlet and Eastern Long Island Sound and Eastern Long Island Bays.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Rainfall amounts from Jose are expected to range from 0.50 to 0.75 inches in and around NYC to 1 to 2 inches across far eastern Long Island. This could result in minor urban and poor drainage flooding, especially in any heavier rain bands. Rainfall amounts will decrease significantly north and west of New York City. Please continue to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts for official information about Jose via: http:/hurricanes.gov and http:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. No hydrologic problems are anticipated through the weekend with the current rainfall forecast.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells from Jose, will bring increasingly dangerous surf of potentially 10-15 ft today and continuing into Wed. This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) into middle of next week. With increasing confidence in track of Jose to the SE of Long Island, have leaned towards a blend of the higher end and mean of Stevens and P-ETSS guidance envelope for surge forecasts. This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 ft of surge during the late Tue into Wed high tides, which would result in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding. These surge values could result in 2 to locally 3 ft inundation in our most vulnerable locations along the southern bays of LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with generally 1 to locally 2 ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave action on top of elevated waters levels will exacerbate impacts along the beachfront. As confidence increases in storm details over the next 24 hours, we will be able to refine these surge value and and potential coastal flood hazards/impacts further.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Tropical Storm Watch for CTZ007-008-010>012. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EDT today for CTZ009. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ009-010. NY...Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ078>081. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Wednesday for NYZ074. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EDT today for NYZ071-177. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ071-177. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Wednesday for NYZ075-178-179. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ075-178-179. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Wednesday for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ330-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338.
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