Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161953 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 353 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A CLEAR SKY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS DETERMINING WHERE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE JUST TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AND PREVENT DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN BE MET. THINKING IS THAT THE CITY...HUDSON AND NASSAU COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED HERE. EASTERN HALVES OF UNION AND ESSEX COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITHOUT A WARNING HERE. THE REST OF THE ZONES IN THEIR GROWING SEASON WILL HAVE A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS. MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925 MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS WILL END AROUND 22Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 5-12 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND GUST AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS. .SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR .MONDAY...VFR
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&& .MARINE...
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A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO AN ONSHORE FLOW. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17: EWR - 30 IN 1980 FORECAST LOW - 34 BDR - 30 IN 1962 FORECAST LOW - 32 NYC - 28 IN 1875 FORECAST LOW - 35 LGA - 32 IN 1980 FORECAST LOW - 37 JFK - 33 IN 1980 FORECAST LOW - 34 ISP - 30 IN 2005 FORECAST LOW - 31
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071- 073-078>081. NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...DS MARINE...JC/FIG HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG CLIMATE...

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