Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220530 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1230 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE. A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN VA AND NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT ALL BUT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT EXPECT TO DECOUPLE EVEN THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THESE LOWS OVERALL ARE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...P-TYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE. BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 5 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z. GUSTS LOST BY 00Z SUN. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SUN...VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS POSSIBLE. .MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR. .WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO. && .MARINE... HIGH PRES PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW. THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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