Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230536 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 136 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS AND NEAR THE CWA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER E CENTRAL PA ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A WEAK H3 JET ARE ALSO WEAKENING WITH TIME AND WILL NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE LOCAL AREA WITH THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE N TOWARDS MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM NORTHERN NY. THERE`S NOTHING ON THE SCOPE ATTM...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. HAVE SCHC POPS COVERING THIS. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD/WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... UPPER LVL TROUGH BEGINS PIVOTING OUT OF THE REGION AS THE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. KEPT THE AREA DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THEN INTRODUCED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTN WITH THE PASSING OF THE FINAL SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE PASSAGE OCCURS...BUT OVERALL THINKING THE BEST CHC...IF ANYTHING DOES FORM...WILL BE WEST OF NYC METRO. BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF OCCURRING AND OF ANY COVERAGE...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE MOST THE AREA REMAINS DRY. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EARLY SAT NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CONTINUAL ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SKIES FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS TO DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FT ALONG THE COAST WHICH MAY BECOME BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SAT NIGHT-WED...VFR. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR...EXCEPT CIGS BELOW 3000FT AT KGON AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. KISP AND KBDR COULD ALSO HAVE SIMILAR CIGS AT TIMES AS WELL EARLY IN THE MORNING. NE FLOW THIS MORNING BCMG E-ESE THIS AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SAT NIGHT-WED...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW MAY BUILD THE OUTER EDGES OF THE OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 3-4 FT FOR THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. GUSTS AT MOST WILL REACH 20 KTS ON THE OCEAN. QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS EXPECTED THEN TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WATERS FROM THE WEST. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/SEARS NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JC MARINE...FIG/SEARS HYDROLOGY...FIG/SEARS

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