Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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029 FXUS61 KOKX 191133 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 733 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND MOISTURE IS INCREASING WITH DECAYING SHOWERS THAT ARE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...HI RES MODELS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. WITH LITTLE SFC INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL ONLY MENTION SCT THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEPARTS. COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS THROUGH TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRY CONDS ON TAP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS COOL OFF ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARM UP ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRY. SOME GUIDANCE BRUSHES THE COASTAL ZONES WITH RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTING A DRY PASSAGE AND INCREASING WIND GUSTS WITH IT. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND A LITTLE WARMER ON FRIDAY. THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT LEADS TO COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS AT MOST. A RETURN SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE THEN PUSHES HIGH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMALS ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH IT. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE TWO FRONTS...HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT FOR A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND EASTERN PA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. LIFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SCT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE AND END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT BY 15Z-17Z FROM W TO E. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT 19Z- WEST TO 02Z EAST THIS EVENING. SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECOME SW AROUND 10 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT BY NOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE UNTIL 15Z AND 20Z-02Z. LIFR CIGS MAY IMPROVE MORE SLOWLY THAN FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE UNTIL 15Z AND 20Z-02Z. IFR CIGS MAY IMPROVE MORE SLOWLY THAN FCST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z AND 19Z- 01Z. LIFR CIGS MAY IMPROVE MORE SLOWLY THAN FCST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z AND 19Z-01Z. IFR CIGS MAY IMPROVE MORE SLOWLY THAN FCST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE UNTIL 15Z AND 20Z-02Z. LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY IMPROVE MORE SLOWLY THAN FCST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CIGS MAY IMPROVE MORE SLOWLY THAN FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW G20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. .SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON THE WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH 10 AM FOR VSBYS 1 NM OR LESS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. S WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATER TODAY...AND THEN TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 25 KT ON THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...AND 1-2 FT ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. && .HYDROLOGY... AROUND 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...GC MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...MPS

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