Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201739 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 139 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER CAPE COD. THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL USHER A COOLER AIRMASS INTO MOST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRES KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AWAY FROM NYC WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT LIKELY...AND WILL FOCUS ON WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FULL LATITUDE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AS IT NEGATIVELY TILTS ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL BUILDING IN ALOFT...DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA WEDNESDAY... MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE W/SLIGHT CHANCE E OF LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO SE QUEBEC/SW ONTARIO BY LATE SATURDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WARRANTING CHANCE POPS THIS TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY STAY TO THE S FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT TO THE N SATURDAY MORNING...SO WENT WITH RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS...WITH EXCEPTION OF KLGA WHICH HAS NE FLOW...ARE A GENERAL SE FLOW 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. THE WIND LOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHILE BECOMING ALL SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZE WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY...STARTING OFF LATE MORNING ON CT COASTAL TERMINALS AND STARTING AT OTHER COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. SEA BREEZE INTO MONDAY EVENING. .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE...
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AN EASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS AND OCEAN SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY IN GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH AND NOT POSE FLOODING ISSUES. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/MALOIT/MPS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS

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