Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 312011 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 411 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION...AND PASS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT HAD ENTERED NRN ORANGE COUNTY BY WAY OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY FALLING INTO THE 50S...BUT IS SINKING MORE SLOWLY S THROUGH CT AND HAD NOT MADE IT TO HARTFORD AS OF 3 PM. STRONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WX. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY...NEARBY PARTS OF NE NJ WAS JUST EXPANDED INTO NEW HAVEN COUNTY CT. HEAVIER CELLS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH TOTALS OVER 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN PLACES WHERE TRAINING OF CELLS IS TAKING PLACE. ACTIVITY MOSTLY OVER BERGEN/ROCKLAND/WESTCHESTER ATTM SHOULD EXPAND NE INTO SW CT PER HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK...BUT LIKELY/CAT POP CONTINUES FOR LIGHTER PRECIP. AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL INTO 60S...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND UPPER 50S FOR LONG ISLAND. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN FACING BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE FRONT LOCATED IN THE VICINITY AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE ADDITION OF SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE REGION BECOMING LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-90 KT JET. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SO HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. POP CONTINUES AT CATEGORICAL MON NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN VERY HIGH...RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH CLOUDS...E/NE FLOW...AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS ON MON WILL ONLY BE 55-60 INLAND...AND 60-65 FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE SMALLER THAN USUAL...WITH LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY UPPER 40S AT SOME SPOTS WELL INLAND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THEN THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SO WILL CARRY LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OUT EAST...AND WILL TAPER POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS...DRY WX WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MILD THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM N TO S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED TSRA COVERAGE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. START TIME OF TSRA 1-2 HRS EARLIER FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND LATE TODAY FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RAIN AND BR THIS EVENING A FEW HOURS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN AND FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY...RAIN ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... AS A COLD FRONT SINKS S OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING...COMBO OF E FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT PLUS INCOMING 3-FT SWELL SHOULD BUILD SEAS ON MOST OCEAN WATERS TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON. SCA ISSUED E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. NOT SURE IF THESE CONDS WILL LAST INTO MON NIGHT...WITH CONDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...WITH TRANQUIL CONDS. && .HYDROLOGY... FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEARBY PARTS OF NE NJ...AND ALL OF SW CT. LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED JUST NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND SHOULD MOVEINTO SW CT TOWARD EVENING. LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF UP TO 4 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. EVENT TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 3-4 INCHES EXPECTED INLAND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH 1.5-2 INCHES EXPECTED FOR NYC...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOD-HVY PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE DAY MON INTO MON NIGHT...AND ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR THIS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-006- 009-010. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>071. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004- 103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...NV MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS

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