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464
FXUS61 KOKX 080244
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes nearby into tonight. A cold front approaches
Tuesday and begins to move through the area Tuesday night. The
front likely stalls nearby the rest of the week leading to
unsettled conditions, potentially into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The center of the remnants of what was TS Chantal are spinning
south of Long Island currently and will pass east tonight.

Activity has diminished this evening and conditions tonight
remain mild and muggy, with the potential for areas of patchy
fog to develop. Temperatures remain in the 70s everywhere
overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of the remnants of Chantal exiting our to sea, a
cold front back to the west begins to approach through the day
on Tuesday.

Deep tropical moisture remains in place ahead of the front, and
showers and thunderstorms look to develop once again into the
afternoon hours as the boundary approaches. The main concern
will once again be torrential downpours and localized flash
flooding. WPC has expanded a slight risk to now include the
entire local area, indicating isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding are possible.

Also can`t rule out a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms,
with damaging wind gusts the main threat. SPC has much of the
area in a marginal risk, with a slight just off to the south and
west over NJ. Given tall CAPE profiles in a weak shear, uncapped
environment, there is potential for an isolated downburst or
two. Latest hires CAMs develop clusters of convection by mid
afternoon across the I95 corridor from the Mid Atlantic and into
the local Tri State, before propagating east into the early
evening.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, temperatures on
Tuesday may be able to achieve lower 90s across the urban
corridor of NE NJ and NYC, especially if enough clearing occurs
early in the day before convection initiates. Given dew pts into
the 70s, peak heat indices are progged around 100F and a heat
advisory was hoisted for NYC, most of NE NJ, southern
Westchester, and Nassau Co. Elsewhere, marginal advisory
criteria is possible, but think values largely remain more in
the mid to upper 90s.

Precipitation diminishes overnight, but the advancing front
slows and potentially stalls over the area Tuesday night, and
conditions remain mild and muggy with temperatures only falling
back into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The NBM was followed with minor local adjustments.

Key Points:

*  A stalled front south of the area will remain in the general
   vicinity through the weekend.

*  Each day will present a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms
   with the overall highest chances from roughly late Wednesday
   night through Thursday night.

*  Temperatures should be right around average for this time of the
   year with highs each day in the lower and middle 80s.
.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure passes to the south tonight. A cold front
approaches late tonight and remains in the vicinity through
the TAF period.

MVFR to IFR conditions tonight, mainly for eastern terminals,
with better conditions as you head west. While KJFK may remain
IFR all night KWER may only briefly see MVFR.

After lingering light showers tonight, heavier howers and
thunderstorms return Tuesday afternoon with some uncertainty in
exact timing and coverage. Kept PROB30 for now.

Winds become light and variable once again tonight. A SW to WSW
wind sets up Tuesday at around 10 kt by mid to late morning.
Given the nearby front there is more uncertainty than usual with
wind direction starting Tuesday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible overnight with changes in flight category in low
stratus/fog.

More uncertainty than usual with wind direction Tuesday
afternoon given nearby front.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: MVFR possible.

Wednesday through Friday: Afternoon and evening showers/tstms
possible each day, with brief MVFR or IFR conditions.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance for showers and an isolated
thunderstorm with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Seas build toward 5 ft tonight with a SE swell on Atlantic
ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, and a Small Craft
Advisory was hoisted here from 6Z Tue thru 6Z Wed.

Elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory
criteria much of the week, and potentially through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Torrential downpours are possible into this evening with
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across NE NJ,
NYC metro, and Lower Hudson Valley. This could lead to areas of
nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding. WPC has NE NJ
in a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with NYC and the Lower
Hudson Valley outlined in a marginal risk.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
could once again produce locally heavy rainfall that leads to
flooding. WPC has expanded a slight risk across the entire local
region. A marginal risk remains in place for much of the area
on Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip risk through this evening on all ocean beaches continues to
be moderate with 2-3 foot surf heights. For Tuesday, the risk
increases to high with surf heights around 5 feet.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ078>081-177-179.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ071>075-
     176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004-006-
     104>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR/JT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DR
HYDROLOGY...DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...