Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010849 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 349 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will move across the area early this morning. Low pressure moves across New England today then into the Canadian Maritimes tonight into Friday. A weak trough will move through Saturday. High pressure builds in for Sunday and pushes offshore Sunday night as an upper level trough approaches. High pressure builds in thereafter through Tuesday. A frontal system approaches for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cold front now entering western Orange county, with the warm front making some progress into far southeast Connecticut. Line of showers in the cool, stable sector has mostly lifted north of the Lower Hudson Valley and will continue lifting north of southern Connecticut. A second line of is streaming towards eastern Long Island in the warm sector, where the warm front has moved north. A wind gust to 35-40 mph cannot be ruled out as this line passes. In either case, the cold front will help to quickly push these showers off to the north and east and by 12z will only carry slight chance pop across far eastern zones. The cold front will be offshore around 12z this morning. Flow behind the front will become westerly as upper low lifts into southern Ontario/Quebec. This will drive much drier into the area through the day. Temperatures may briefly drop back into the lower 50s where the warm front had passed north. Cold advection begins to take shape today behind the front, but a strong westerly downslope flow should negate the effects of the CA through early afternoon. Temperatures are likely to recover back into the middle and upper 50s with coolest highs in the lower 50s in Orange county. Temperatures begin to fall after 19z as stronger cold advection takes place. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Closed upper low slowly lifts into southeastern Canada tonight into Friday with weak troughing noted aloft. Several lobes of energy will swing across the region as the upper low slowly drifts to the east. The Tri-State will be located within a fairly tight pressure gradient between low pressure to the north and east and high pressure over the central states. Cold advection will continue tonight with a NW flow in the middle and upper levels. Any stratocumulus from during the day should largely dissipate with only a few lingering clouds across the interior. The boundary layer will be well mixed tonight so do not anticipate radiational cooling and temperatures dropping much below freezing. Readings generally in the middle to upper 30s are forecast with a few locations across the interior possibly falling into the lower 30s. Friday should start mostly clear, but then clouds are likely to increase from NW to SE in the afternoon with the shortwave energy rotating around the larger cutoff low. The most cloud cover should be confined to the interior and this is also where an isolated sprinkle or flurry cannot be ruled out. Have left this out of the grids for now due to model soundings showing a good amount of dry air below 5kft to overcome. Highs will be near normal in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tranquil conditions for the beginning of the long term as surface high pressure builds in Saturday, with zonal flow aloft. It will be on the breezy side as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes strengthens as it pulls away from the area. A weak surface trough will move through Saturday, but only expecting a wind shift from the WNW to the NW and some increase in cloudiness. Lift associated with this trough is weak and moisture is lacking to produce any precipitation. Surface high pressure moves over the region Sunday, pushing offshore Sunday night as a northern stream weak upper level shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes area. This feature seems to weaken as it heads toward the area Sunday night into Monday, so chance POPs late Sunday night transition to slight chance everywhere for Monday. High pressure then moves in for Monday night through the day Tuesday, then retreats to the northeast on Tuesday as a frontal system approaches from the southwest. Cold air damming for Tuesday into Tuesday night, so some light snow is possible inland. This system also seems to weaken as it moves into the drier air of the high pressure system to the northeast. Only slight chance POPs associated with this system. Temperatures in the long term will be at or slightly below normal for this time of year, in the 40s region-wide. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front will pass through NY/NJ metro terminals by around 09z and eastern terminals through 11z. In its wake...rain threat tapering and westerly wind shift with gusts 25-30 kt, cigs improving to mvfr, and vsby to vfr. Cigs improve to VFR by morning push. Main impact during the day will be westerly winds 15-20kt with gusts 25- 30 kt...prevailing left of 310 magnetic. Gusts likely hold at 25- 30 kt through the evening push. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: KJFK TAF Comments: Westerly winds...prevailing left of 310 Frequent gusts to 25-30 kt with peak gusts to 35 kt today. KLGA TAF Comments: Westerly winds...prevailing left of Frequent gusts to 25-30 kt with peak gusts to 35kt today. KEWR TAF Comments: Westerly winds...prevailing left of Frequent gusts to 25-30 kt with peak gusts to 35kt today. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Westerly winds...prevailing left of Frequent gusts to 25 kt with peak gusts to 30 kt today. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Late tonight...VFR. West winds diminish late. .Friday...VFR. West gusts around 20 KT. .Saturday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 KT. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday...VFR...possibly lower at times depending on the track of low pressure to the south. && .MARINE... Frontal system moves across the waters through daybreak. A few gale gusts are possible on the central and eastern ocean waters as a line of showers and wind shift move through. Otherwise, SCA conditions are expected on all waters today behind the front with an increasing westerly flow. SCA wind gusts will continue tonight on all waters, but begin to fall below criteria on the LI Sound, NY Harbor, and LI Bays early Friday morning. Winds on the ocean may come close to 25 kt on Friday. Ocean seas will begin to subside tonight, but still remain above 5 ft through Friday. For now have held off on extending the SCA past 11z Friday on the ocean. Waves should remain below SCA criteria through the long term. Winds could gust to 25-30 kt on the ocean waters Friday night through the first half of Saturday night as low pressure of the Canadian Maritimes strengthens and pulls away from the waters. Thereafter, winds should remain below 25 kt as high pressure builds in. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant precipitation is forecast today through early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...NV MARINE...JP/DS HYDROLOGY...JP/DS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.