Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 290746 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 346 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE AFTN. THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE. TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET. MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY. AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG ON MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN EITHER DIRECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN EITHER DIRECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS. .SATURDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...LN MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.