Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 242231
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
631 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches on
Monday and moves through the region Monday night. High pressure
builds to the west Tuesday and moves off the southeast coast
Wednesday into Thursday. A series of low pressure waves move
across the region from Thursday afternoon through Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A southerly flow across Long Island has allowed dew points to
increase into the lower and mid 60s, while inland some locations
have seen dew point mix out into the mid and upper 50s. Also,
temperatures along the coast were falling more rapidly in the
southerly flow, while inland temperatures remain in the 90s.
Updated to reflect current conditions and trends. The HRRR
captured hourly temperature rather well.
12Z model suite shows weak shortwave quickly moving east tonight,
with embedded vorticity maxima tracking toward the area by late at
night, toward morning.
Expect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies this evening giving
way to increasing clouds overnight.
Humidity levels begin to increase as a warm front to the west
jumps north. An area of showers and thunderstorms will approach
western sections toward morning ahead of the aforementioned
Very warm temperatures are expected tonight, with lows ranging
from the upper 70s in and around NYC, to the upper 60s across the
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Initial shortwave/vort moves across or just south of the area in
the morning per latest model suite.
It appears that scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this feature, with better chance near the coast and
Then, upstream trough approaches, along with sfc cold front. With
increasing low level moisture, deep mixing and increasing surface
based instability, numerous thunderstorms should approach and
impact a good portion of the area late in the day. Moderate cape,
and increasing shear will result in a few stronger to possibly
severe thunderstorms, with the biggest threat gusty winds.
With the cloud cover expected, it appears that temperatures may be
a degree or lower than previously thought. Much depends on amount
of sunshine that is realized as h8 temps increase to 18-20C. Went
above mos numbers, and with dew points rising into the 70s, expect
heat indices well in the 90s, and exceeding 100 in a few spots.
The excessive heat watch for NYC and NJ metro has been converted
to a heat advisory, and the heat advisory remains in effect for
the remainder of the area. The only exception is eastern Long
Island and SE CT where temperatures remain in the 80s due to
clouds and south winds. As such, heat advisory has been cancelled
for those locations.
Any evening showers and thunderstorms move east and weaken in
Another warm night is in store Monday night as the front slowly
approaches and moves through.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly zonal flow will continue across the northern tier and along
the US/Canadian border as a high pressure ridge remains over the
southern states and low pressure remains over eastern Canada Tuesday
into 12Z Thursday. Heat and humidity will persist through Thursday.
Shortwave energy is forecast to come ashore of the Pacific northwest
late Tuesday and begin to dig an trough into the upper plains
Wednesday. This shortwave is expected to reach the east coast
Thursday afternoon. An eastern trough then remains into next weekend
as an up stream ridge builds over the northern Rockies and into the
southwest. A series of shortwaves rotate through the eastern trough
through from Thursday through next weekend. Timing and placement of
the waves is uncertain at this time. However, unsettled weather is
expected with mainly diurnally driven convection each day. With the
uncertainty will have slight chance and chance pops Thursday
through Sunday, with higher pops inland and during each afternoon
With the longwave trough digging into the eastern states the core of
the hot air will be shifted to the south by Friday, with
temperatures likely returning to more normal levels.
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the region moves offshore tonight.
VFR expected through this evening.
Sea breezes have developed at coastal locations with speeds
generally between 10 and 15 kt. Further from the coast, winds
will generally remain west or southwest. Winds subside and return
to the s/sw this evening.
There is a chance of showers or possibly a thunderstorm
late tonight into Monday morning. Confidence of timing and
placement of any storms are too low to include in the TAFs. There
is a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon.
Will include a prob30 group for the 30 hour TAF sites.
There is chance of haze tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Will
continue to mention 5-6sm br/hz.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday afternoon-Monday Night...5-6sm hz possible during the
day. MVFR or lower possible in any scattered shra/tsra. SW winds
possibly becoming gusty to 15-20 kt for NJ and interior terminals
in the afternoon...meanwhile afternoon southerly sea breeze for
.Thursday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible in
isolate late day/evening thunderstorms for interior terminals.
.Friday...Chance of sub-VFR in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Winds and seas forecast on track, with no changes at this time.
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches the
waters Monday and moves through Monday night.
Sub SCA conditions are anticipated through Monday night.
High pressure builds to the west of the forecast waters Tuesday and
moves off the southeast coast Wednesday and Thursday. A series of
weak low pressure waves will moves across the forecast waters
Thursday afternoon through next weekend with scattered showers and
From Tuesday through Friday winds and seas are expected to remain
below advisory levels across the forecast waters.
There is the potential for 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rainfall, with
locally higher amounts, possibly 1 inch or more, in showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Monday night.
Dry weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. There is the
potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the
interior, during the afternoons and evenings Thursday through next
CT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for CTZ005>010.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ067>075-078-
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for NJZ002-004-006-