Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260611 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 211 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AS SATURATION WILL BE CONFINED BELOW 850 MB AND ONLY WEAK LIFT AVAILABLE. WARM FRONT PROBABLY REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW A MILE. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE. COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT. BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS AND -DZ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDS ACROSS KJFK/KHPN/KBDR/KGON/KISP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPARSE THUNDER OCCURRING OVER TERMINALS THIS AFT/EVE. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SHRA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT E/SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH BY LATE MORNING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-20KT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN AFT/EVE. WINDS SHIFT WSW AND THEN NW FROM W TO E BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT. MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES AT KJFK/KISP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SW WINDS OF 40 KT AT 2KFT. STRONGER LLWS EXPECTED THIS AFT/EVE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT OF 60-70KT AT CT/LI TERMINALS AND TO 50-60KT AT NYC TERMINALS. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN -RA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH TAPERING -RA. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THIS AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE TODAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY. THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ345. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...NV MARINE...MPS/MET HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET

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