Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201940 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS HAVE JUST CLEARED MONTAUK...SO EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AS OVC CLEARS OUT EAST...A BRIEF PD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CU DEVELOPMENT AND PTCLDY SKIES ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CU FIELD FARTHER WEST IS SPARSE DOWNWIND OF EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND BKN NEAR OCEAN SEA BREEZE ACROSS WRN LONG ISLAND...AND SHOULD START TO THIN OUT TOWARD EVENING...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MARITIME FLOW CONTINUING... ERN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT... OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...ADJUSTED UPWARD OUT EAST FOR EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVG...WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART. AN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF NYC. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...10 MPH OR LESS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHOULD SPREAD BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE. POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXISTS ONCE AGAIN FOR ERN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEP UP. LOWS WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEG WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE BOARD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD SET OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT AND THE AIR MASS IS CAPPED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS HEIGHTS RISE...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO ENTER THE AREA BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TUESDAY WILL MEAN NOT ONLY A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...BUT ALSO MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS...AND THE 12Z CMC ARE ALL KEYING IN ON A SLIGHTLY DRIER SOLUTION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. DAYTIME CUMULUS OVER AREAS (WEST OF KISP-KBDR) WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT EARLIER THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THE EXTENT AND HEIGHT OF THIS DECK. IFR IS POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING. KLGA WILL HOLD ON TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FLOW OFF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND THROUGH SUNSET. NOT SURE WHY KEWR WENT SO SOUTHERLY...THEY SHOULD BACK TO MORE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MON AFTN-TUE MORNING...VFR. COASTAL IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LT SFC WND WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZES. .TUE-WED. VFR. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY METRO LATE EACH DAY. .WED NGT-THU...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS AND A COLD FROPA. .FRI...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA CONTINUES FOR THE ERN OCEAN WATERS WHERE PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW 15-20 KT GUSTING CLOSE TO 25 KT IS KEEPING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT SOME TIME THIS EVENING AS WINDS SLACKEN. THEN SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...TONGUE MARINE...GOODMAN/JP HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP

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