Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011938 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 238 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes tonight into Friday. A weak trough will move through Saturday. High pressure builds in for Sunday and pushes offshore Sunday night as an upper level trough approaches. High pressure builds in thereafter through Tuesday. A frontal system approaches for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Flow behind a cold front has become westerly as upper low lifts into southern Ontario/Quebec. This is driving much drier air into the area. Cold advection has begun, and it appears temperatures are now holding steady, only to begin falling as the afternoon progresses with low sun angle. Winds will gusts 25 to 30 mph through the afternoon hours. Mostly/partly sunny skies are expected, with an increasing amount of strato-cu clouds across the interior. Lower coverage east. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Closed upper low slowly lifts into southeastern Canada tonight into Friday with weak troughing noted aloft. Several lobes of energy will swing across the region as the upper low slowly drifts to the east. The Tri-State will be located within a fairly tight pressure gradient between low pressure to the north and east and high pressure over the central states. Cold advection will continue tonight with a NW flow in the middle and upper levels. Any stratocumulus from during the day should largely dissipate with only a few lingering clouds across the interior. The boundary layer will be well mixed tonight so do not anticipate radiational cooling and temperatures dropping much below freezing. Readings generally in the middle to upper 30s are forecast with a few locations across the interior possibly falling into the lower 30s. Friday should start mostly clear, but then clouds are likely to increase from NW to SE in the afternoon with the shortwave energy rotating around the larger cutoff low. The most cloud cover should be confined to the interior and this is also where an isolated sprinkle or flurry cannot be ruled out. Have left this out of the grids for now due to model soundings showing a good amount of dry air below 5kft to overcome. Highs will be near normal in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tranquil conditions for the beginning of the long term as surface high pressure builds in Saturday, with zonal flow aloft. It will be on the breezy side as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes strengthens as it pulls away from the area. A weak surface trough will move through Saturday, but only expecting a wind shift from the WNW to the NW and some increase in cloudiness. Lift associated with this trough is weak and moisture is lacking to produce any precipitation. Surface high pressure moves over the region Sunday, pushing offshore Sunday night as a northern stream weak upper level shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes area. This feature seems to weaken as it heads toward the area Sunday night into Monday, so chance POPs late Sunday night transition to slight chance everywhere for Monday. High pressure then moves in for Monday night through the day Tuesday, then retreats to the northeast on Tuesday as a frontal system approaches from the southwest. Cold air damming for Tuesday into Tuesday night, so some light snow is possible inland. This system also seems to weaken as it moves into the drier air of the high pressure system to the northeast. Only slight chance POPs associated with this system. Temperatures in the long term will be at or slightly below normal for this time of year, in the 40s region-wide. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Westerly flow behind a departing area of low pressure will continue into the day on Friday. VFR through the TAF period. Strato-cu resulting in broken ceilings at around 4500 ft this afternoon will dissipate this evening. Main impact through the period will be gusty west winds. While the prevailing wind direction is expected to remain to the left of 310 magnetic, gusts will range from 20-25 kt, with occasional gusts in the 25-30 kt range at the city terminals. Winds and gusts will diminish after 00Z at outlying terminals, but will linger through the evening push at the NYC/NJ metro airports. Gusts then return mid-late morning on Friday at around 20 kt. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: A few gusts to around 30 kt are possible this afternoon in westerly flow. KLGA TAF Comments: A few gusts to around 30 kt are possible this afternoon in westerly flow. KEWR TAF Comments: A few gusts to around 30 kt are possible this afternoon in westerly flow. KTEB TAF Comments: A few gusts to 25-30 kt are possible this afternoon in westerly flow. KHPN TAF Comments: A few gusts to 25-30 kt are possible this afternoon in westerly flow. KISP TAF Comments: A few gusts to 25-30 kt are possible this afternoon in westerly flow. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday...VFR. West gusts 20-25 KT. .Saturday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 KT. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday-Tuesday...VFR...possibly lower at times depending on the track of low pressure to the south.
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&& .MARINE... SCA conditions are expected on all waters this afternoon behind a cold front with an increasing westerly flow. SCA wind gusts will continue tonight on all waters, but begin to fall below criteria on the LI Sound, NY Harbor, and LI Bays early Friday morning. Winds on the ocean may come close to 25 kt on Friday. Ocean seas will begin to subside tonight, but still remain above 5 ft through Friday. For now have held off on extending the SCA past 11z Friday on the ocean. Waves should remain below SCA criteria through the long term. Winds could gust to 25-30 kt on the ocean waters Friday night through the first half of Saturday night as low pressure of the Canadian Maritimes strengthens and pulls away from the waters. Thereafter, winds should remain below 25 kt as high pressure builds in. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant precipitation is forecast through early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/DS NEAR TERM...DS/PW SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...FEB MARINE...JP/DS/PW HYDROLOGY...JP/DS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.