Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 150723 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 323 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak warm front passes east of the area today followed by a cold frontal passage tonight. High pressure builds through mid week before a weak cold frontal passage on Thursday. High pressure will then rebuild and prevail through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A dense fog advisory remains in effect for portions of southern CT and Suffolk County in Long Island as weak warm advection ahead of a subtle warm front is allowing moisture to increase beneath a nocturnal inversion. By late morning, flow will turn more southwesterly following the warm frontal passage and as a cold front approaches from the west. The southwesterly flow should allow for increased mixing, gradually eroding any remaining fog and stratus and leading to well above normal high temperatures. Any break in the clouds will be brief as clouds increase by evening ahead of the cold front. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Mild conditions will continue through at least the early portion of the evening in southwest flow. The front is expected to slowly move through overnight with an abrupt drop in temperatures from west to east in strong cold advection. Any precipitation will likely be light and post-frontal, with minimal accumulations. By morning, rain will taper off quickly, with gusty northwest flow and more seasonable temperatures expected for the remainder of the day. By comparison, temperatures Monday night will feel significantly cooler than we have experienced recently, though will be closer to climatological normals for the time of year. Should northwest flow slacken more than forecast, temperatures in more rural areas and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island could approach the freezing mark. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The pressure gradient relaxes into the mid week as high pressure builds across the area. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal on Tuesday before slowly moderating through late week. Little sensible weather is expected, though a short wave and attendant cold front will pass to the north for Thursday. Given antecedent dry conditions and its passage more to the north, no precipitation or large temperature drops are expected with its passage. High pressure will rebuild for the remainder of the week with seasonable conditions continuing. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will approach the region late today, crossing the region tonight. Conditions expected to continue to lower to IFR/LIFR in areas of fog, stratus, and drizzle for morning push. Conditions improve slowly to MVFR in the morning, with VFR likely developing for most terminals in the afternoon. Light S winds for morning push...then S to SW winds increase to 10 to 15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT this afternoon. These winds likely continue for the evening push. Low prob of gusts to 30 kt during this time. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Late Sunday Night...MVFR possible with iso-sct showers. Winds shift to NW after 08Z and gust 20-25KT. .Monday...Chc early AM showers and MVFR/IFR, becoming VFR. NW winds G20-25KT. .Tuesday-Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Areas of dense fog over the eastern forecast waters should improve from w to e through mid morning. Marginal SCA seas will continue on the ocean waters through this morning due to a SE swell. SCA winds and seas expected to build on the ocean in a strengthening SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front this aft/eve, and with the NW flow in its wake late tonight into early Mon morning. Marginal SCA gusts are expected on nearshore waters, pre and post frontal during this time as well. Marginal SCA gusts may continue on the nearshore waters through the day Monday, nonetheless SCA seas are expected to continue on the ocean. Higher confidence in a period of SCA winds re- developing across all waters Mon eve/night in wake of secondary cold front. Thereafter...tranquil conditions are expected from Tuesday into the end of the week as high pressure build in. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ006>008- 010>012. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-340- 345-350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD NEAR TERM...MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...NV MARINE...NV HYDROLOGY...MD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.