Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 152241 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 541 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE MID TO LATE PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CURRENTLY SKC EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS POSSIBLY INDUCED BY CONTRAILS WITH THE TEMP NEAR -34F WHERE CLOUDS ARE REPORTED AT 26000 FT. UPDATED THE FCST TO INDICATE MAINLY CLR FOR THIS EVE. HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NARRE INDICATES PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. IN ADDITION...AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME CALM...BUT MAY HAVE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THEM AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL CARRY INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THEN TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN NYC...AND IN THE LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS NEAR THE COAST. INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WHILE FAR OUTLYING AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW 20S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS LOW PRES OVER MICHIGAN PASSES WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM OVER NYC/WESTERN LONG ISLAND TUESDAY EVENING...AND THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. AFTER 06Z...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER EASTERN ZONES...AND WITH RAIN MOSTLY ENDING BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...EXCEPT COASTAL AREAS THAT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE US/CANADA FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK...AS AN ELONGATED CLOSED UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING...WITH PRECIP SHIELD MOVING OFFSHORE. A MILD START TO THE DAY AND GRADUAL CAA ON WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE ON WED. WITH UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG UPPER JET TO THE SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN WED AFTERNOON. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ON THE BACK END OF THE UPPER LOW WED NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PRESENT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR POSSIBLY A SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING... PARTICULARLY NW ZONES. THE STACKED LOW DRIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD PRESENT MAINLY DRY...BREEZY...AND COOLING CONDS THU INTO FRI IN THE WAKE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON THU AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ON FRI UNDER CAA PATTERN. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES ARISE LATE IN THE WEEK/WEEKEND IN THE INTERACTION OF A SPLIT PAC FLOW AND EVENTUAL STRENGTH/DEPTH OF PHASED SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EVOLUTION OF WHICH WILL DETERMINE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A SOUTHERN LOW FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MOST PHASED WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW TRACKING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WIND/IMPACT. INTERESTINGLY 12Z ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE...SIMILAR TO 12Z GEM...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW FROM A STRENGTHENING LOW. CMCE/GEFS AND 12Z GFS ARE LESS PHASED...WITH REGION IMPACTED BY MAINLY SOME LIGHT PRECIP FROM UPPER ENERGY AND BROAD LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SOME OF THE MODEL SPREAD CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER LOW...BUT STILL NOT AS DEEP AS ECMWF MEMBERS. BASED ON ABOVE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY...LOW PREDICTABILITY ON DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP IN MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT FOR DIRECT WIND/HEAVY PRECIP IMPACTS FROM A STRONG COASTAL LOW. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR. ANY CHANCE OF MVFR LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT... .TUE AFTN...BCMG MVFR LATE WITH -DZ. E 5-10KT. .TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. RAIN. SE 10KT. .WED...VFR. W 10-15KT. GUSTS 20-25KT. .THU...VFR. NW 10-15KT. GUSTS 20-25KT. .FRI...VFR. NW 10KT. .SAT...VFR. VAR-E 5-10KT. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS DEPARTS. LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT AND CONDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SCA CONDS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS WED THROUGH THU IN PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SUB SCA CONDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RETURN FRI AND CONTINUE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... 1/4 TO AS MUCH AS 1/2 INCH QPF EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM A COASTAL LOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV NEAR TERM...JMC/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JC MARINE...MPS/NV HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.