Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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523 FXUS61 KOKX 200529 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1229 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure passes to the south through Saturday, while deepening low pressure tracks across Eastern Canada. A weak cold front will pass through the area Saturday night. High pressure will build to the south Sunday. A back door cold front will pass through Sunday night, then return north as a warm front on Monday ahead of a strong frontal system for Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will return for mid week and remain through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Temperatures and dew points remain tough to forecast hour to hour as winds have remained light with a meso high across the areas and only a few high clouds allowing for radiational cooling to off set warm air advection. Expect the meso high to gradually weaken and southwesterly winds to increase, along with warm advection. Both temperatures and dew points are forecast to remain nearly steady or slowly rise. Slowly deepening low pressure tracks across eastern Canada and high pressure passes off the Southeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Southwest winds ramp up quickly on Saturday with gusts 20 to 30 mph, highest near the coast. A downslope W-SW flow combined with strong warm advection will allow highs to get into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Preferred to stay a few degrees above guidance. Trailing cold front works across the area Saturday with diminishing winds as high pressure builds in from the west. Lows will still be above normal by about 7 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry and unseasonably mild conditions expected on Sunday with temperatures in the mid 40s. A cold front approaches from the west Monday before tracking across the area Monday night into Tuesday. Showers are expected Monday morning ahead of the boundary with the potential of some wintry mix mainly across interior locations. Moderate to heavy rain will then overspread across the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds in behind the frontal system on Tuesday. Dry and more seasonable temperatures expected for the middle of the week through Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure remains centered to the southwest of the region today. A weak frontal passage occurs tngt. VFR through the TAF period. SW winds today veer to the wnw tngt behind the fropa. Gusts to around 25 kt at times aft 14Z til around 22Z or later. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Late tngt...VFR. WNW flow. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday...Chance of MVFR or lower in -SHRA. S winds G20KT late day. .Tuesday...IFR in rain. LLWS. S winds G25KT morning, W winds G30- 35KT aftn. .Wednesday...VFR. Gusty west winds. && .MARINE... A weak pressure gradient force remains over the forecast waters and will be increasing late overnight and into Saturday morning as slowly deepening low pressure passes across eastern Canada and high pressure increases across the southeast. Lowered both wind speeds and gusts, along with seas until late overnight as buoys indicating the lighter winds and lower seas. Will continue with the SCA, even though conditions currently under advisory levels, with conditions increasing to SCA levels late. With deepening low pressure passing to the north through Saturday and high pressure tracking off to the south, WSW winds will gradually ramp up through Saturday morning with SCA conditions developing on the ocean waters tonight and the remaining waters on Saturday. Occasional gale force gusts will be possible on the ocean waters through early afternoon. SCA conditions will likely subside quickly by saturday evening as high pressure builds in from the west and low pressure passes east of the Canadian Maritimes. Seas above 5 ft are likely to linger into the first half of the night. Below small craft advisory conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Winds and ocean seas expected to increase to small craft advisory levels Monday Night into Tuesday ahead of approaching cold front. Small craft advisory conditions likely continue Tuesday Night through Wednesday, with potential for a period of Gale conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... A frontal system passing through late Monday night into Tuesday has the potential to bring around inch of rain. No significant hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW NEAR TERM...19/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...12 MARINE...Fig/19/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.