Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281744 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 144 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS...AND WILL LEAD TO 1-2 HR PD OF SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. OKX/ALY 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST H8-10 THICKNESSES SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH TEMPS LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZES WILL COME IN MUCH SOONER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY. FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD -SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. LIGHT SEA BREEZES RANGING FROM 160 TO 210 DEGS NEAR 10 KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRI... .MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS VSBY AND RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT. .WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. .FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .CLIMATE... RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH... LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST... NEWARK.............85/1954*.......88.... BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........79.... CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........87.... LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85.... JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........83.... ISLIP..............78/2007*.......82.... * AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...GC MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...MALOIT CLIMATE...

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