Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191144 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 744 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS25 WHICH ARE ABOUT A DEGREE BLW CLIMO. ON THE OCEAN...A 2 FT ESE SWELL GETTING PICKED UP AT BUOY 44017. WITH THE FCST GUIDANCE ON TRACK...WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AFTN. IT IS MARGINAL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 2 FT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH THE BIG THREE MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LO PRES SE OF THE CWA AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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GENERALLY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. A NE-E FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA...THEN SHIFTS BACK TOWARD THE E TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO THE SE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. KHPN AND KSWF MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING VSBY DOWN TO 5 SM. WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER WAVE WATCH III. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JP MARINE...JMC/PW HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW

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