Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020754 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 354 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNTIL AROUND 8 AM OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. AS AN UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER OH MVS SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY 6 PM...SCT CONVECTION IS FCST TO REDEVELOP DOWNSTREAM...STAYING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. THE LATE SUMMER HEAT ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY CONTS WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS ARND 90 AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARND 93 IN THE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS INCLUDING NYC. SEA BREEZES OF 10-15 KT ARE FCST TO DEVELOP BY 18Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FCST FOLLOWING THE LAST 90 DEG DAY FCST IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS TO BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FCST TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGS COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY... FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2- METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN AREAS ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BRIEF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDS IN BR/STRATUS AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR. LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE. .FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...GC SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...MPS MARINE...GC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT

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