Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 210149 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 949 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALREADY SOME STRATUS FORMING OVER THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE A MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...ADJUSTED UPWARD OUT EAST FOR EXPECTED LATE NIGHT CLOUD COVER...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO AVG...WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART. AN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF NYC. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...10 MPH OR LESS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHOULD SPREAD BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE. POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXISTS ONCE AGAIN FOR ERN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEP UP. LOWS WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEG WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE BOARD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD SET OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TUESDAY AS QPF LOOKS LIGHT AND THE AIR MASS IS CAPPED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS HEIGHTS RISE...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO ENTER THE AREA BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND EASTERN CANADA. A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TUESDAY WILL MEAN NOT ONLY A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...BUT ALSO MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z GFS...AND THE 12Z CMC ARE ALL KEYING IN ON A SLIGHTLY DRIER SOLUTION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. MOSTLY VFR. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COASTAL STRATUS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST WITH LOWERING CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THE EXTENT AND HEIGHT OF THIS DECK. IFR IS POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. WINDS UNDER 10 KT BACKING NE OVERNIGHT. WINDS VEER SE-S LATE MON MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE AM...VFR. COASTAL IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE. .TUE PM-WED. VFR. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY METRO LATE BOTH DAYS. .WED NGT-THU...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS AND A COLD FROPA. .FRI...VFR. && .MARINE...
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SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 25KT AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW 5 FT. SUB- SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JP NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/LN/JP SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...TONGUE MARINE...GOODMAN/JP HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JP

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