Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 170818 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 418 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds to the north through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Jose will lift northward in the Western Atlantic waters through the middle of the week, with the potential for it to come close to the region. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. By late week, high pressure builds across the area once again.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Low clouds and fog this morning should lift/improve, with partial sunshine this afternoon expected. A ridge of high pressure remains in place, with warm/humid weather persisting. Temperatures once again will rise to around 80 degrees, mid 70s near the coast. Cannot rule out a few showers today. A high risk of rip currents continues across Atlantic beaches today. A high surf advisory remains in effect.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Large ridge remains in place tonight and Monday. Expect stratus and fog to redevelop tonight, although light east winds may be just enough to prevent dense fog. Warm and humid conditions will continue, with lows tonight in the 60s, and high temperatures Monday ranging from the mid 70s to around 80. Any low clouds and fog burn off/lift in the morning Monday, with partial sunshine returning by afternoon. An isolated shower is possible.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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All attention is on Jose during this period. Operational and ensemble model guidance remain in general agreement on lifting Jose northward through Tuesday morning, but then some critical differences remain in speed, track, and intensity during the eastward curving process near the region Tuesday Night/Wed period. 00z guidance has once again shifted the track west from the 12z runs and now the 00z ECMWF has become the outlier bringing the center of the storm approximately 75 miles S of Montauk before making a hard right turn. With the exception of the NAM, the remainder of the deterministic guidance and GEFS mean take Jose outside of the 40N 70W benchmark Tue night. This model spread could continue through the next 24-48 hours, so please continue to monitor NHC forecasts for official information about tropical cyclone Jose, at http:/hurricanes.gov. It`s important to note that typical NHC forecast track errors 3 to 4 days out generally range from around 100 to 150 miles, respectively. These differences considerably affect the intensity of winds, rain, and coastal impacts for the region during this time period. The sensitivity for this forecast as depicted by the SBU ensemble sensitivity tool is the strength of Jose itself and its interaction with lingering East coast troughing and more so strength of a PAC shortwave (currently entering the PAC NW) riding towards the east coast around a Canadian upper low by Tuesday. Based on this uncertainty, still too early to lock in on most hazard/impact details. Highest forecast confidence at this point is for building long period swells increasing the threat for high surf, widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes), and dangerous rip currents into the middle of next week. The NWS will continue to monitor the progression of Jose closely. Please stay tuned for subsequent updates.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low stratus progression and fog will need to be monitored this morning. Ceilings will improve to VFR in the late morning or early afternoon, with exact timing a little uncertain and could occur an hour either side of forecast. High confidence in mainly light ENE winds becoming E 5-8 kt as ceilings/vsby improve in the morning and early afternoon. Sea breezes with turn the flow SE mid to late afternoon. Light winds with a return of stratus and fog by evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Late tonight...IFR conds likely at KGON, MVFR possible outside of NYC metro after midnight. .Monday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in chance showers at night. .Tuesday...Mainly MVFR in showers. Gusty NE winds possible, watching Jose. .Wednesday...Any MVFR conditions improve to VFR. Gusty N winds possible, watching Jose. .Thursday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA for hazardous seas remains through Monday due to swells from Jose. Winds will remain on the light side through this period. Dense fog advisory is also in effect into early morning for eastern ocean and nearshore waters for dense fog development with vsby 1 NM or less. As Jose lifts north through the Western Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday...seas on the ocean waters will likely build into the 10 to 15 ft range and could reach 15 to 20 ft by Tuesday. Seas near the entrance to eastern LI Sound from the ocean will also become rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range. Winds could start reaching SCA levels Mon night, and then gale force by Tue morning as the pressure gradient tightens between Jose and high pressure over the Northeast. The conditions could extend well into Wed. The timing and hazards on the coastal waters will all depend on the strength and track of Jose.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through Monday. Any hydrologic impacts from developing tropical cyclone Jose depend largely on forecast track and intensity. Please continue to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts for official information about Jose via: http:/hurricanes.gov and http:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will rise through the middle of next week with the approach of a new moon. These rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells building from Jose, will increase the threat for high surf, dune collision, and localized overwashes along the ocean beachfront Sunday through early next week. Coastal flooding will become an issue for vulnerable locales such as the southern and eastern bays of LI/NY and Western Sound as we head into high tides Monday night and more so Tuesday. A minor to moderate coastal flooding threat exists at this time based on the current NHC forecast and ensemble clustering. Since we are still 3 to 4 days away, with critical uncertainty in track and strength of the Jose, the coastal flood threat could increase or decrease.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ008-011- 012. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ079-081. High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for NYZ080-081. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-340- 345-350-353. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...24/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...PW MARINE...24/PW HYDROLOGY...24/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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