-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
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FXUS61 KOKX 231435
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low of Jose dissipates well to the southeast of the
area over the next couple of days, while high pressure centered
to the northwest will be in control through the first half of
next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is forecast to remain
offshore of the east coast. A cold front passes through the
region Thursday, followed by high pressure building in Friday.
Please refer to the latest advisories from the National
Hurricane Center for the official forecast on Maria.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments made to forecast based on latest observations.

Clouds mainly east of the Hudson River will gradually work east
this morning in tandem with the remnants of Jose. An anomalous
upper air pattern, will feature a high amplitude ridge across
the eastern United States. This will keep the area dry and
unseasonably warm through the course of the weekend. North
winds will continue today, but gusts will be weaker than on
Friday, perhaps up to 20 mph near the coast.

Highs will range from the lower 80s at the coast, to the mid and
upper 80s from NYC and points north and west.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the Atlantic ocean
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Expect a continuation of unseasonably warm and dry conditions
as heights continue to build across the area. 85H temps will
approach 18C with highs 85 to 90 across much of the area on
Sunday, with the exception of the immediate coast where it will
be in the lower 80s. Readings will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal with few if any clouds. See climate section below for
potential records.

Gradually building swells from distant Hurricane Maria will
produce a moderate to high risk of rip currents on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A anomalous upper air pattern will feature a longwave trough over
the western states, and a highly amplified ridge across the east.
Hurricane Maria will track slowly north through the week. The
global models are now all pointing toward a more westward
solution for Maria as the weakness provided by the remnants of
Jose appears to be less of a factor than it was 24 hours ago,
with the upper ridge expanding eastward across the western
Atlantic. This in turn could cause a more westward track for
Maria. Eventually though, a strong upper trough approaches from
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes to deflect the system to the
south and east of the area. There is still some uncertainty and
timing issues at this juncture in the forecast. Please refer to
the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for
the official forecast on Maria.

Warm heights aloft and subsidence will result in an unseasonably
warm week and a dry start. At the moment, there continues to be
a low chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday as moisture
works in ahead of Maria and the upper ridge begins to break down
with the approach of an upper trough. Depending on the future
track of Maria, some of this moisture could interact with a cold
frontal boundary late Wednesday into Thursday. A return to more
seasonable weather is forecast on Friday behind the cold front.

Due to long period swells from Maria, there will be a prolonged
period of rough surf at the ocean beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west into Sunday morning, as
Post Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to slowly weaken as it
drifts southeast well off of Cape Cod.

VFR through the TAF period.

Northerly winds will gust to 15-20 kt across the area late this
morning through this afternoon before diminishing towards
sunset. The exception to this is KGON where gusts will be
slightly higher, in the 20-25 kt range. Winds then become light
and variable tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...VFR.
.Monday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower possible and scattered
showers are possible. E-SE winds G15-20kt possible Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient continues to weaken over the waters around
Long Island as Post Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to weaken as it
tracks farther away from the region and high pressure builds in from
the west. The gradient becomes light throughout by late this
afternoon, enabling winds to decrease to around 10 kt or less on all
waters. Winds should then remain around 10 kt or less over all the
waters around Long Island through at least Wednesday night.

On the coastal ocean waters, swells from a combination of Jose and
Maria will keep seas, over at least the southern portion of each
zone at or above 5 ft through Wednesday night. The seas should
diminish to around 5 ft tonight and Sunday then build back to 6-11 ft
(highest east of Fire Island Inlet) Tuesday night.

As a result, have extended the SCA through Sunday. Once gusts to
around 25 kt abate during the afternoon, it should be converted over
to a SCA for Hazardous Seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next week.
However, the interaction of a cold front late Wednesday into
Thursday with tropical moisture will need to be watched.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The following are record high temperatures for Sunday
September 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature.

Record High Temperature          Forecast High Temperature
-----------------------------    -------------------------
Central Park........89 (1959)    89
LaGuardia...........89 (1959)    88
Kennedy.............88 (1970)    87
Islip...............83 (2009)    86
Newark..............92 (1959)    90
Bridgeport..........87 (1959)    84

The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Sunday
September 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature.

Record Max Minimum Temperature   Forecast Minimum Temperature
------------------------------   ----------------------------
Central Park........74 (1970)    70
LaGuardia...........73 (1970)    71
Kennedy.............71 (1970)    69
Islip...............69 (1970)    65
Newark..............74 (1970)    68
Bridgeport..........71 (2011)    66

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...FEB/Maloit
MARINE...Maloit
HYDROLOGY...DW
CLIMATE...