Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 282010 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 410 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED. AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM. THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES. CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO. POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL. UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS OTHERWISE. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT. GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG. OTHERWISE...VFR. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING. WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE. NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...MPS MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...

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