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000
FXUS61 KOKX 060028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES THE
STALLED FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD
GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA...WITH MOIST
AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
DENSE...LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TIME LAGGED RAPID REFRESH GUIDANCE AND NAM GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT DENSE ADVECTION FOG MOVES BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING FROM
COAST INLAND.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...INCREASING LATE TONIGHT FROM NW
TO SE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES AND COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.

IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH POST-FRONTAL RAIN WILL
CONTINUE...IMPROVING VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING FROM NW TO SE AS NW WINDS BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MANY CONCERNS WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. OVERALL GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS OF THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEMS...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH WILL PLAY INTO THE TYPE
OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION.

FIRST THING OF CONCERN. THE COLD FRONT FROM DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW
FORMING AND TRACKING ALONG IT...WITH THE CENTER PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR THE NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PCPN HAVING
EXITED MOST OF THE REGION BY 12Z SAT...AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY 15Z.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE TYPE OF PCPN. 12Z GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR...THOUGH THE NAM
AND ECMWF...ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN...DROPS THE TEMPS AT A
QUICKER RATE. FOR NOW...USED THE TIMING OF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION...KEEPING EVERYTHING LIGHT TO MOD RAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX
OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND INTERIOR CT. SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS
WARM ENOUGH ALONG THE COAST FOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE PCPN EXITS...COULD SEE SLEET MIXING IN AS FAR SOUTH
AS SOUTHERN CT AND THE NYC METRO AREA EARLY SAT MORNING WITH
LINGERING PCPN. AT THIS TIME...KEEPING ANY FZRA THOUGH TO THE NORTH.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN SAT...AND THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
AFTN. AS WINDS SHIFT TO A WNW-NW FLOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH
IN COOLER TEMPS...WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WHICH
EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO PHASE WITH A PASSING SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY LATE MONDAY. 12Z MODELS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN BRINGING
IN THE PCPN...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK TO ONLY SLIGHT CHC UP TO
NYC/LI FOR LATE SUN AFTN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PCPN LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MON...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY
CORRESPONDS TO THE COLDEST TEMPS...AND THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED
WINTRY PCPN. WITH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE TO START SUN...HAVE A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW...WITH PSBL SLEET EVEN OVER INTERIOR REGIONS SUN
EVENING. AS THE HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BRING AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH PSBL SLEET WHILE
KEEPING MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THE COAST. RIGHT NOW...THE
GUIDANCE HOVER OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IN TYPE OF PCPN RIGHT NOW IS FAIRLY LOW....WITH
REFINING MOST LIKELY NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE OF THE HOURLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD PUSH MOST...IF NOT
ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z MON...AND THUS SWITCHING ALL PCPN
OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY PUSHES
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE LINGERING PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUES.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW RETURNS MID WEEK...USHERING IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10 DEGREES BY
WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THEN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP PROMOTE IFR TO DROP TO LIFR WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
THICKER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING IN MAINLY
LIFR TO ISOLATED VLIFR CONDITIONS.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MOSTLY OVER KSWF...SPREADS INTO THE REST
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THEREAFTER TO MVFR/VFR AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO
MVFR...ISOLATED IFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR CIGS IFR OR BELOW TONIGHT BUT LOWER
FOR VSBYS WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR
WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST WINDS SWITCH DIRECTION WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM FORECAST.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 1/4-1/2SM VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...IFR OR BELOW COULD LAST
A FEW HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: 1/4SM VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BETWEEN
03Z AND 10Z. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...IFR OR BELOW COULD LAST A FEW
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: 1/4SM VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BETWEEN
03Z AND 09Z. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...IFR OR BELOW COULD LAST A FEW
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: 1/4SM VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BETWEEN
02Z AND 09Z. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...IFR OR BELOW COULD LAST A FEW
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: 1/4SM VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BETWEEN
02Z AND 08Z. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...IFR OR BELOW COULD LAST A FEW
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: 1/4SM VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BETWEEN
03Z AND 10Z. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...IFR OR BELOW COULD LAST A FEW
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCNL -RA MOST TERMINALS...ENDING AS A
WINTRY MIX FOR KSWF. N WIND.
.SAT...BECOMING VFR EARLY. NW WIND 10-20KT.
.SUN...VFR. LGT WIND.
.SUN NGT...MVFR. WINTRY MIX > RA COAST AND CT. SN > MIXED PCPN
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
.MON...IFR. RA. SE WND 15-25KT BECOMING SW IN AFTN.
.TUE...VFR. W WIND 15-25KT.
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&&

.MARINE...
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DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1 NM OR LESS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN RESPONSE AND BE
ABOVE 5 FEET TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...10-15KT GUSTS AND 1-3FT SEAS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION. THE DEVELOPING LOW AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WILL INCREASE SEAS...WITH OCEAN WATERS REACHING BETWEEN
5-7 FT BY MONDAY AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS. THE REST OF THE
WATERS WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE WITH PSBL 25 KTS GUSTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY WED...GUSTS WILL DIMINISH...THOUGH SEAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN SUBSIDING. ALL WATERS RETURN TO SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS BY THURS.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL AROUND AN
INCH...WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ007>012.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-075-
     078>081-177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-
     105-107.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$