-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
990
FXUS61 KOKX 071132
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes nearby Monday afternoon into Monday night.
A cold front approaches Tuesday and moves over the area Tuesday
night. The front likely stalls nearby the rest of the week
leading to unsettled conditions, potentially into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers are approaching the area a little ahead of schedule, so
POPs have been raised in the appropriate areas (mainly Long
Island) to account for this timing. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track with this early morning update.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this morning
into the afternoon. The extratropical remnant circulation of Chantal
will likely track over the Delmarva in the afternoon and then
offshore Monday evening and night. It should be emphasized that the
circulation will no longer be tropical, but leftover tropical
moisture will be present across the Northeast. This moisture will
act on the sea breeze boundary as well as some mid level energy to
promote the development of showers and a few thunderstorms.

Given the tropical origin of the system, PWATs will be quite high
today, 2-2.35". Model soundings indicate tall and relatively skinny
CAPE, which is common in tropical air masses. Freezing levels look
to average around 15 kft as well, supportive of efficient/warm rain
processes. 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and SBCAPE lines up this
afternoon with highest instability expected to be in NE NJ,
NYC, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Most 00Z CAMs agree on this
area being the focus of most of the thunderstorms and QPF.

Elsewhere, showers are possible but coverage looks to be lower and
could just be isolated. No flood watch has been issued at this time,
but WPC has forecasted a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
across NE NJ, NYC metro, and the Lower Hudson Valley.

Basin averaged rainfall amounts around one quarter of an inch
possible with some local areas receiving 1-2 inches with higher
amounts. Some locations may see little to no rainfall through Monday
evening.

Focus for showers shifts to the eastern part of the area Monday
night with the weak wave of low pressure passing to our south. It
appears most of the coverage should be offshore, but cannot rule out
some showers or isolated thunderstorms across portions of Long
Island or even southeast Connecticut.

Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s with a few spots into the
upper 80s in NE NJ. Lows tonight will stay warm in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday, a cold front slowly approaches from the north and west.
Ahead of the front, tropical moisture will linger with PW around 2
inches. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in the
afternoon and evening along and ahead of the front from the NYC
metro on NW. This activity will then slide eastward in the evening
and at night. The main concern from this activity will once again be
torrential downpours and localized flash flooding. WPC has forecast
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall throughout on Tuesday.

An isolated severe thunderstorm is also possible Tuesday
afternoon/evening. SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk.
Given tall CAPE profiles in a weak shear, uncapped environment,
there is potential for an isolated downburst or two. 00Z CAMs have
showers and thunderstorms developing in clusters.

The front moves over or just east of the area Tuesday night. The
front may begin stalling nearby, which could promote continued
showers/storms for the eastern half of the area.

High pressure to our east over the western Atlantic will lead to
continued moisture advection into the area. Given the front stalled
just to our south, this will act as a continuing trigger for showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Given 2"+ PWATs lingering on
Wednesday, WPC has carried over another marginal risk for excessive
rainfall on Wednesday for the potential for more isolated heavy
downpours.

There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding Tuesday`s high
temperatures and it all hinges on cloud cover and rainfall timing.
Some guidance clear out cloud cover Tuesday morning into early
afternoon before increasing it again. This extra sunshine would
allow temperatures to warm into the low 90s. Given high dewpoints,
heat indices in this scenario could reach 100. However, it seems
more realistic to have more cloud cover hanging around early on
Tuesday given an approaching front in a high moisture environment.
In this scenario, radiational heating would be limited and highs may
not reach 90 before rainfall begins in the afternoon/evening. Due to
this uncertainty, a heat advisory has not been issued.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s across the area, cooler east,
warmer west. Overnight lows Tue & Wed nights will be in the upper
60s to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The NBM was followed with no changes.

Key Points:

*  A stalled front south of the area on Thursday will remain in the
   general vicinity through the end of the week and into the
   weekend.

*  Expect a period of unsettled weather with a chance of showers
   and/or thunderstorms each day.

*  Temperatures should be right around average for this time of
   the year with highs each day in the lower/mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain offshore, while weak low pressure passes
to the south this afternoon and tonight.

Its mainly MVFR to start with some spots VFR. Generally looking
at improvement back to mostly VFR is expected. Some early
morning showers south of Long Island may impact KISP and KGON
through 15z or so. Additional Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms will be possible starting at around noontime which
could bring lower flight categories at times. IFR/LIFR
conditions are expected once again tonight.

S-SW mostly around 10 kt at the metro and coastal terminals, and
light inland. Winds should become SSE-S today around 8-15 kt or
so. Winds become light and variable once again tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible for flight category changes this morning and to
fine tune any timing for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: Improvement to VFR by late morning, then afternoon showers
likely with chance of tstms especially from the NYC metros
north/west, with flight cat lowering to MVFR or IFR.
Gusty winds also possible in stronger storms.

Wednesday through Friday: Afternoon and evening showers/tstms
possible each day, with brief MVFR or IFR conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels on the waters through
Monday. Seas begin building Monday night into Tuesday and may
approach 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet into Tuesday night from a
SE swell. Generally weak flow will result in sub-SCA conditions
on all waters through this week and into the weekend. Ocean seas
however will remain around 4 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally torrential downpours are possible late Monday morning into
Monday evening, especially across NE NJ, NYC metro, and Lower Hudson
Valley. This activity could produce localized flash flooding and WPC
has this area in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. The risk
for locally torrential downpours and localized flash flooding
remains possible on Tuesday and Wednesday for the entire area.
WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip risk for today on all beaches is moderate with 2-3 foot
surf heights. Tomorrow the risk increases to high on all
beaches, especially beaches farther east. With surf heights
between 4 to 5 feet.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ005-009.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR
HYDROLOGY...BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...