Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 180156 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 956 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...AS MULTIPLE LOWS PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE AREA WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEAR WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING A FEW DEG ABOVE THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE MIN TEMP. OUTLYING AREAS SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST TEMP CHANGES...WITH LOWS 5-10 DEG COLDER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT...IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS IN NYC TONIGHT MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT OR ONLY A COUPLE DEG COLDER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT...WITH MID 60S EXPECTED. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD UPSTATE NY. DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW TOWARD SW PA SHOULD ENABLE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH HIGH-BASED CU. MORE SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO OR A TOUCH WARMER THAN THOSE OF TODAY DESPITE THE COLD FROPA OF THE PREVIOUS EVE...WITH HIGHS 80-85...AND UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OUT EAST. LOW TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TONIGHT ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT...MAINLY 50 TO LOWER 60S...BUT A LITTLE MILDER ELSEWHERE...IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AS H8-10 THICKNESSES INCREASE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO TREND TO A DRIER SOLUTION EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK. TRAILING STALLED FRONT FROM SURFACE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL LINGER WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS FORMS ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z TUES...WITH THE LOW SLOWLY RIDING THE FRONT. NAM AND CMC REMAIN THE STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING FIRM OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE AIDED WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING TROUGH. PRECIPITATION TIMING A BIT TRICKIER WED-FRI WITH MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF MULTIPLE FEATURES. THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE SOUTH WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISO TSTM. HAVE CAPPED POPS WEST OF NYC AT CHANCE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW FORMS OVER DELMARVA. 12Z GFS IS THE STRONGER SOLUTION WITH THE SFC LOW AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS STRENGTH BUT DO SEE THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION SOME TIME DURING THE DAY THURS. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVERYWHERE TO CHANCE LATE WED NIGHT ON THROUGH THURS INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AND DIPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE VICINITY JUST TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY EVENING. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT MONDAY MORNING...BACK TO THE W AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. EXCEPTION IS AT KSWF WHERE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NW. AT COASTAL TERMINALS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WSW THEN SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SEABREEZE REACHING KJFK BY LATE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH THE QUIET CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT AS EARLY AS WED WITH A PERSISTENT AND STRENGTHENING ELY FLOW...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS FRI- SAT. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS NEAR TERM...LN/SEARS SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS

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