-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 090314
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1114 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT...THEN STALLS JUST
SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD POOL INDUCED PRES RISES PRODUCING STRONG WLY COMPONENT WINDS
BEHIND THE INITIAL GUST FRONT. THESE SHOULD BECOME LESS INTENSE AS
THE POOL WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG/SVR TSTMS EXITING THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ENTERING CT.
THESE SHOULD WEAKEN AFT THEY GET A LITTLE PAST THE HOUSATONIC IN
THE INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS.

WILL LET THE SVR WATCH EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...AND MAINTAIN THE
MENTION OF ISOLD SVR GUSTS ACROSS ERN CT.

LOWS AROUND 70 STILL LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES MADE THERE.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING
ON ALL ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SFC FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH 80S TO
NEAR 90 ANTICIPATED.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY FLOW.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ON ALL
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUING THREAT FOR PCPN WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE OF FINALLY PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE TRI STATE AREA AFTER 00Z THURS...THEN STALLING THE
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z THURS MORNING. AREA REMAINS
PLACED UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
COMBINATION OF THE FORCING AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONT AND THE
ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO TRIGGER ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE EAST. AS FOR
SEVERITY LEVEL...DECENT SHEAR EXPECTED WITH VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50
KTS...BUT INSTABILITY MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THINGS. SURGE OF
MOISTURE RIDES THE FRONT...BUT AXIS OF HEAVIEST PWAT VALUES LOOKS TO
STAY TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE AREA. SO OVERALL...THINKING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SMALL HAIL IN ANY EVENING
DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR. WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES
TO THE SOUTH...COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...BUT NOTHING IN TERMS OF
FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY DURING THE DAY
THURS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. HOWEVER...THURS COULD VERY WELL END UP A DRY DAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN THURS NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST AND THE FLOW
ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO TURN MORE ZONAL. DRY WX THEN SETS UP FOR FRI-SAT.
12Z MODELS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND EVEN
REACHING THE REGION...SO HAVE KEPT SAT MOSTLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH A LOW END SLIGHT CHC PSBL FOR SAT AFTN WEST AND NORTH OF
THE CITY WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP AND A DECENT VORT MAX
PASSES THROUGH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTIVE OF PCPN FORMING
BY SUNDAY AFTN THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
MODEL RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS ON INTO TUES...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED THEN SOMETIME BY WED MORNING.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...USING A GENERAL MOS/WPC BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL EAST OF THE AREA BY THU
MORNING.

STRONG GUST FRONT IS MOVING E OF NYC TERMINALS AS OF
3Z. EXPECT IT TO IMPACT KHPN/KBDR/KISP BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AND
WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN TO NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING BY THE TIME IT MAKES
IT TO KGON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH PATCHY HZ/BR
MAY DEVELOP DEVELOP WHERE WINDS LIGHTEN TO 5 KT OR LESS...MAINLY
KHPN/KSWF/KBDR/KGON. MVFR OR POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR. WINDS BECOME WSW BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z W TO E BEHIND SFC
TROUGH AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A STRATUS DECK FROM
DEVELOPING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS LATE. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR
WED...ALTHOUGH SEABREEZE MAY BACK SOME TERMINALS MORE TO THE S AS
THEY DID TODAY.

ISO TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN/EVE WED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH EVENING WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLY WINDS DIMINISHING...BECOMING
NLY LATE.
.THURSDAY...MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHRA AND TSTMS WILL PASS THRU THE WATERS TNGT. STRONG WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 35 KT ARE LIKELY.

EXTENDED THE SCA THRU THE NGT DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. INCREASING SEAS AGAIN ON WED WITH INCREASING SW FLOW.

SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURS...GENERALLY 5-6 FT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SEAS
DROPPING BELOW 5 FT BY THURS AFTN. THEN EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAINLY 1/4 OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TNGT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...
MARINE...JMC/SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/SEARS/PW