Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 180751 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 351 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN OPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING DIGS TOWARDS THE SE US THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN PA APPROACHES THIS MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LIMITED...SO JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA THREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY LI/CT WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFT/EVE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY N&W OF NYC METRO...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS AFT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PICK UP THIS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING WITH THIS ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND SHOT OF CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR SUN. BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPS ON SUN WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S. TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST/FREEZE CONDS LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...AND PINE BARRENS OF LI. TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLY ENOUGH AND CIRRUS DOES NOT BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS AND DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OF THE REGION. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE MID THRU LATE WEEK. MODELS CONVERGING A BIT ON WHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF...BUT STILL SOME PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CUTOFF. THIS ALL HAS IMPLICATIONS ON LOCATION OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON THE REGION. LATEST RUNS WOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT STILL MODEST UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. DESPITE THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTIES...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. VFR FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH CIGS AT KSWF MAY LOWER CLOSE TO MVFR JUST BEFORE COLD FROPA WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE SOME TIME AROUND MIDDAY. COULD BE SOME ISOLD-WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING AND FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ESPECIALLY INLAND AT KSWF/KHPN...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACT. S-SW WINDS AT COASTAL SITES COULD GUST JUST OVER 15 KT BEFORE COLD FROPA...THEN STRONGER W WINDS WILL FOLLOW AFTER COLD FROPA...WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SPORADIC GUSTS 15-20 KT MAINLY BEFORE 02Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .LATE TONIGHT...SECONDARY COLD FROPA LATE...FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS G20-25KT. .SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND G20KT EARLY. .MON...VFR. W WINDS G15-18KT. .MON NIGHT-WED...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. && .MARINE... FOR THE OCEAN...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO WILL PUSH SEAS AS HIGH AS 9 FT TODAY PER REGULAR WAVEWATCH WHOSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS ARE PREFERRED OVER HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SEAS BECOMING MORE WIND DRIVEN ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH NW FLOW GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. BEFORE THAT...SHOULD SEE W FLOW GUSTING UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER QUIET CONDS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE TUE NIGHT AND LAST INTO AT LEAST THU EVENING WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES. FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS...EXPECT A MORE MARGINAL SCA EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH W WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL TONIGHT...BUT NW FLOW SHOULD RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AFTER A SECONDARY COLD FROPA LATE TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...GOODMAN/NV HYDROLOGY...NV

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