Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261804 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 204 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front moves through the region late today followed by high pressure through the weekend. A cold front slowly moves through Monday and stalls nearby into Tuesday before dissipating. Another cold front passes through Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The cold front stretched from Southern Connecticut into northeastern New Jersey at 18Z. Based on radar timing...it should reach New York City momentarily and clear Montauk around 20Z. There is the potential for it to slow as it reaches the somewhat opposing coastal flow across Long Island. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible with the frontal passage. There is a moderate rip current risk today. The other concern for today is the hot temperatures and humidity. Have gone closest to the warmer MET/ECS guidance for highs today. This gives readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s, highest across the NYC metro, NE NJ, and interior. Dew points will start the day in the lower 70s, but should mix out into the upper 60s in the afternoon as the flow goes more to the west and northwest with the passage of the prefrontal trough. These lower dew points will occur during peak heating, preventing heat indices from rising above the upper 90s across NYC metro and urban NE NJ.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A weak front will move through this evening with high pressure building over the area tonight into Saturday. The biggest change with this front will be the dew points as they will fall into the lower 60s tonight and remain there through Saturday with some spots falling into the upper 50s. It will still be hot on Saturday as the strong middle and upper anticyclone meanders across the middle Atlantic. High temperatures several degrees above normal in the middle and upper 80s are forecast. A few spots could touch 90 across Urban NE NJ/NYC metro. With the lower dew points, heat index values will be close to actual air temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... With the exception of the NAM...00z NWP model suite is in good agreement across North America at H5 into the middle of next week. The NAM is more amplified than remaining guidance...especially with the northern stream trough tracking through southeast Canada and northern New England Sun/Mon. The strong midlevel anticyclone over the Mid Atlantic Sat night will weaken and drift into the Tennessee Valley early to mid next week. Differences also become apparent with the pattern at the end of the period. While the 00z EC has trended more towards the GFS in developing a cutoff low over SE Canada...there are timing and strength discrepancies. However...this general pattern would re-introduce us to early fall-like weather. At the surface...high pressure encompassing New England Sat night...will move offshore on Sun. Another sunny day although onshore flow will limit mixing...especially at the coast with slightly lower max temps. Highs across urbanized NY/NY and areas N and W should range from mid to upper 80s...with lower to mid 80s common at the coast. Weak low pressure will track from the Great Lakes Sat night to northern New England by Mon morning. The associated warm front lifts north late Sun/Sun night with a waa pattern ensuing. Warmer temps and humidity returns on Mon as a cold front slowly moves through from the northwest. Not much pcpn expected as the majority of the upper level dynamics passes well to the north and the front runs into strong subsidence. The front then stalls nearby with perhaps a few showers Tue and Wed in response to ripples of vort energy and a few passing jet streaks aloft. Temps will be similar Tue and Wed as there is really no change in airmass behind the boundary. A somewhat stronger cold front passes Wed night...although again moisture appears limited. Have kept the forecast dry after Mon Night as a result. There will be a noticeably drier and somewhat cooler airmass behind this boundary. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Wind has shifted to N-NW at all NYC terminals. High confidence that a sea breeze will not occur at KJFK. Wind will shift to the NW across eastern areas later this afternoon. A few gusts to 20kt are possible. Winds will then continue to veer around to the N-NE tonight at less than 10 kt at all terminal locations. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .Outlook for 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... .Saturday through Sunday...VFR. .Monday into Monday Night...VFR. Potential cold frontal passage with a few showers and thunderstorms. .Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... A weak front moves across by this evening with high pressure returning tonight into Saturday. Sub advisory conditions are expected on all waters. Sub-advy conds prevail through the day Monday. However, the potential remains for increasing tropical swell on the ocean Sunday through at least Tuesday. As a result...seas could build to 5-6 ft from late Monday through Tuesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/DS NEAR TERM...JMC/DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...IRD MARINE...JMC/24/DS HYDROLOGY...24/DS

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