Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290809 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 409 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH AND NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE PHASE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SAT INDICATE A LOT OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. HAVE FORECASTED SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH ITS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW TRANSPARENT THESE CLOUDS ARE ATTM. DO EXPECT SOME THINNING AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA WITH VERY DRY UPPER LEVELS PER 00Z KOKX SOUNDING. NLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING AROUND H85...WITH TEMPS AROUND 10C AT THIS LEVEL WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DAM. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH SAT. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 13C SAT AFTN WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE FLOW TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY HOWEVER SINCE THE OPAQUENESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS WEAK WAA OCCURRING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THU NIGHT. ONE OTHER THING THAT IS TROUBLING IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING EARLY SAT MORNING. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW...FEEL THAT THEY ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DO NOT FORESEE BKN LOW CLOUDS AROUND 12Z. DO HOWEVER FEEL THAT FEW-SCT COULD BE AROUND WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WARM...MUGGY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP THE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A MOIST S/SW FLOW WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A TROF OR WEAK WARM FRONT THAT APPROACHES SUN AND PASSES TROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DECENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT DOES NOT SUPPORT TRAINING OF CELLS...THUS ANY FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TUE AFT/EVE. AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO FEATURE MDT-HIGH CAPE...BUT WEAK SHEAR. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND LOW TO MID 80S AT THE COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. N-NW FLOW...RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC...IS GENERALLY SUBSIDING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-NNE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT...EXCEPT AT KJFK WHERE WINDS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. .SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. && .MARINE... SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH SWELLS ALSO DECREASING...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA HZ. SUB-ADVSY CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS WILL BE FEATURED FROM SAT NIGHT INTO TUE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO REACH SCA CRITERIA SUN AFT THOUGH MON MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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