Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231957 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 357 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE CENTER NEARBY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL PROBABLY STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT OVERALL DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS WELL WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE AREA. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED STARTING WITH THE COOLER MAV MOS AND KNOCKED OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS CONSIDERS THAT WE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE AS MUCH INSOLATION AS TODAY...AND TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER DO NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS MOISTURE CONTINUE TO HEAD NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY AT LEAST FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING GOOD 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND A LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING IN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS UP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WITH THE NAM CLOSEST TO THE COAST AND THE GFS THE MOST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WET FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY EVENING AS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE LINGERED POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW PRECIPITATION COULD LAST A LITTLE LONGER. RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING EAST WILL HAVE DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RIDGE MONDAY AND A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LIGHT FLOW THRU THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE AT IMMEDIATE COAST...RESULTING IN SW-SSW FLOW 5-10 KTS. FEW-SCT HIGH LVL CLOUDS THRU TONIGHT. LIGHT/VRB FLOW OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FROM THE ENE TOMORROW AFTR 12Z...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN BY 15/16Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN...WINDS AROUND 5 KTS BOUNCING BETWEEN SW AND W FLOW. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTN...WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIGHT/VRB. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PSBL SEA BREEZE AROUND 20Z...WINDS MAY BECOME SW 5-7 KTS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT. .WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT. .FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT. .SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS. && .MARINE...
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RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WINDS THEN PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST...SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MET ON THE OCEAN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR SOMETHING THAT WOULD OCCUR IN THE 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING FOR NOW. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST THURSDAY WITH INCREASING EASTERLY WIND. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THURSDAY. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE A SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES...IS LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A NEW MOON WEDNESDAY...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE E CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND LOCATIONS. MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE LIKELY WITH A 2 DAY DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM EAST TO WEST...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MET NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...JC/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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