Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221437 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1037 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deepening low pressure off the coast of Maine will track north through Maine and into eastern Canada today through Sunday. A cold front will move southeast across the area early Monday morning followed by Canadian high pressure through Wednesday. Low pressure will move slowly east toward the area Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Deepening low pressure was off the Maine coast this morning with the associated cold front east of the forecast area and winds across the region have shifted to the W to NW. Wrap-around moisture was moving through the western and southwestern zones this morning and will slowly move to the north to northeast as the low moves into southeastern Canada. Updated the probabilities to reflect the current conditions with 100% chances where rain is occurring. Also converted to stratiform rain. High temperatures for today occurred soon after 100 am EDT. Temperatures during the daylight hours will hold steady or slowly fall. More importantly though, will be strong west to northwest winds on the backside of deepening low pressure system. Pressure rises this afternoon and an increasing pressure gradient will result in the potential for gusts up to 50 mph across LI/NYC/SE CT, and 35 to 40 mph elsewhere. The top of the mixed layer approaches 50 kt near the coast late this afternoon. Always difficult to estimate how much mixes down to the surface will occur, however, strong cold advection and decent pressure rises support a high percentage of these winds transferring down to the surface. Some of the higher elevations across the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ may even experience occasional gusts up to 50 mph as well. A wind advisory remains in effect for NYC/Long Island/SE CT, where the highest pressure rises occur this afternoon into early this evening. In addition, the highest sustained winds are expected across the coastal sections, maximizing offshore of Long Island. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Any leftover showers tapper off from south to north tonight as moisture and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west winds up to 50 mph, strongest at the coast, will continue as the low slowly lifts to the north. Wind advisory remains up overnight for LI/NYC/SE CT. Winds during the day on Sunday will gusts up to 40 mph for most locations. Upper trough lifts across eastern Canada on Sunday with a gradually weakening surface low. High pressure builds east across the southeast. Lows tonight will be near seasonable levels as gusty winds inhibit strong radiational cooling. Highs on Sunday rebound to near normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Clipper low approaches Sunday night and sends a cold front through the area by daybreak Monday. There is decent lift in the 85h-500h layer with a good chance of showers. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday through Wed will be quite cool as a building canadian high pressure system moves east across New England, bringing overnight low temps into the 30s across most of the local area, even across parts of NYC on Tuesday night. Grab those jackets. Thu-Fri will bring our next chance of rain as low lvl warm air advection increases between the departing Canadian high and a low approaching across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure deepens as it moves into Northern New England and southeast Canada with high pressure building to the southwest. Increasing NW flow through the day with sustained winds becoming 20-25 kt late this morning into the afternoon. Gusts around 35 kt are expected this afternoon with some gusts reaching 40 kt possible late this afternoon and evening, especially near the coast. MVFR conditions will improve to VFR in the 16 to 18z time frame, with ceilings around 035 after 18z. VFR conditions and gusty NW flow continue through tonight. .Outlook for 12Z Sunday through Wednesday... .Sunday...VFR. WNW-NW winds G25-35KT likely. .Sunday night-Tuesday night...VFR, NW winds G20-25KT possible. An isolated shower possible Sunday Night into Mon Morning. .Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Updated the winds and seas forecast through early this afternoon, based on current conditions and track of low pressure off the Maine coast, forecast to deepen and track north through today. Westerly gales develop across all waters today as the low deepens and tracks north. Gales are forecast to continue through the day Sunday. Wind gusts may briefly drop below 25 kt Sunday night before a cold front passes early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 25-30kt are likely Monday through Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to decrease on Wednesday as high pressure moves across the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Additional rainfall today is expected to be in the range of a quarter to half an inch with isolated higher amounts. The highest amounts will be generally over the Husdon Valley and into interior southern Connecticut. Sunday night...scattered showers with rainfall of less than one tenth of an inch is forecast with the passage of a cold front. Thursday through Friday...A widespread rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch is possible with the approach of low pressure from the Great Lakes. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ007-008-011-012. NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345- 350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/DW NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...DS MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...DW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.