Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 241733
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
133 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure builds over the Tri-State through the
weekend with our first touch of fall-like weather. The high slides
offshore on Monday. A cold front with showers moves through on
Tuesday. High pressure returns for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Back edge of clouds is just north of the Long Island/NYC Metro,
progressing slowly SE, with clearing forecast during the next
couple of hours.

Winds generally north around 10 mph today.

Forecast high temperatures are in the upper 60s and lower 70s,
which are near normal for this time of year.

There is a high risk for rip current development at ocean beaches
today - water temps are still warm and many beaches are do not
have lifeguards this time of year.

Clear skies tonight as high pressure begins to settle over the
area. There will likely be enough of a pressure gradient for at
least light winds, but still think below normal lows are
achievable. Forecast lows are in the lower 40s inland to the upper
40s to lower 50s closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper low moves out into the north Atlantic Sunday into Monday as
deep upper ridging settles over the northeast. Surface high
pressure will dominate the weather both days.

High temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees are forecast
both days, with Sunday having the potential to be a few degrees
cooler than Monday. Overall though, these temperatures are close
to seasonable levels.

Excellent radiational cooling conditions are possible Sunday
night. Lows range from the upper 30s and lower 40s inland to lower
and middle 50s in the city. Temperatures could fall a bit lower
than forecast across the interior, and this could bring about a
chance for some frost. For now have left out of the forecast, but
will continue to monitor trends. The best chance of this occurring
as it stands now would be across Orange County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The high moves offshore Monday night as an upper trough cuts off
and digs into the Great Lakes. A cold front will quickly approach
Monday night ahead of the upper low. The latest models have come
into much better agreement with the timing of the cold front as
well as the alignment of the best lift and moisture. Have
therefore increased PoPs to likely late Monday night west and then
translated them eastward Tuesday morning. As the system becomes
vertically stacked over the Great Lakes Tuesday morning, the cold
front will surge eastward through the region. This system should
bring a band of showers through, ending across the east Tuesday
afternoon.

The upper trough/low will remain across the eastern US through the
end of the week, with models differing on how quickly it opens up
and lifts out. However, the atmosphere looks dry under the trough
with the deep moisture well offshore. Surface high pressure will
build in for the rest of the week as the upper trough lingers.

Temperatures for the long term period will be near seasonable
levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Canadian high pressure builds in through the weekend.

VFR with northerly winds through the TAF period. Gusts may cut off
after 23Z.

.Outlook for 18Z Sunday through Thursday...
.SUN-MON...VFR.
.TUE...MVFR w/areas of IFR in the morning. Becoming VFR from West
to East midday.
.WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA on the ocean waters is in effect primarily for seas around 5
ft through at least 18Z Sunday. This is due to a residual SE swell
from well offshore Tropical Cyclone Karl. There is some
uncertainty as to how long these swells will linger.

Gusts around 25 kt on the ocean continue through middle morning
before falling closer to 20 kt this afternoon as the gradient
weakens and high pressure builds over the waters.

Otherwise, sub-sca conditions are forecast through Tuesday. Seas
could build close to 5 ft on the ocean as a frontal boundary
lingers offshore and high pressure builds over the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant precipitation is forecast through Monday. A cold
front moves through Tuesday with a good chance of widespread
showers. However, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS



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