Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281515
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1115 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS...AND WILL LEAD
TO 1-2 HR PD OF SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. OKX/ALY 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FCST H8-10
THICKNESSES SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH TEMPS LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY SEA
BREEZES WILL COME IN MUCH SOONER THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE. FOR LOWS
TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WILL SEE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS
WEAK/DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
FOR NOW LOW LEVELS APPEAR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND MIXED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TOO 900 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE S OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER/LESS
BULLISH WITH THE FRONT THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. SINCE THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...USED BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF WITH 00Z
NAM/SREF/GFS/SREF TO DENOTE BACKDOOR FRONT. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD
-SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT - SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL
LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE
ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE
ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER
CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA
TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND
INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE
OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST.

SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SEA BREEZES ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN
160 AND 220 DEG AROUND 5 KNOTS. THEY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
NEAR 10 KT BY 17Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN NIGHTTIME STRATUS
AND FOG. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASING E-NE WINDS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE
WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY.

AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH...

LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST...
NEWARK.............85/1954*.......88....
BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........79....
CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........87....
LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85....
JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........83....
ISLIP..............78/2007*.......82....

* AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





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