Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 221138
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
738 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track east of Cape Cod today...then dissipate
near Nova Scotia on Monday. Another weak low will pass near the
region on Tuesday. High pressure will then briefly follow for
Wednesday and Thursday with a frontal system approaching from the
northwest late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fcst on track with only minor tweaks made. Upr low over cntrl PA
continues to inch towards the cwa this mrng. Area of light
rainfall from nern NJ thru the city into CT will slowly slide ewd
as a result. The low pres sys is way out over the Atlantic...so
the pcpn this mrng will basically be the dpva squeezing out
residual moisture in the region. This seems to be the reason there
is a bit more lgt rain and even dz being reported across the s
fork of Long Island into Block Island...where there is some deeper
bl/llvl moisture.

The rain should become more showery in nature today with the upr
low over the ern seaboard. Best instability across the interior
and this lines up with the best mid lvl moisture...so highest
chances for rain in those areas. The ern portion of the cwa close
to the h7 low per the model progs so more mid lvl dry air.

Instability drops tngt aft sunset...so the models suggest pcpn
will rapidly dry out across the cwa. This consensus was followed
for the fcst...although any stronger activity embedded in the flow
could maintain overnight and produce a few surprise shwrs in the
area.

The statistical models were in good agreement today...so used a blend
of the MET/MAV for temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Good model agreement that the main h5 low sets up near Hatteras
in the mrng...then drifts newd over the Atlantic during the day.
Mid lvl moisture is limited...but ely flow develops late which
should increase pws to over an inch per the GFS. The best chances
for rain may still though hold off in most areas til the eve
because of this initial lack of moisture. Warmer temps however
across the interior could offset the lack of moisture and provide
a net gain in instability...allowing for better rain chances
during the day. Pops highest west of the Hudson for that reason.
Temps close to guidance which again was in good agreement.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Global models continue to slow down with the progress of an upper
trough over the Eastern U.S. at the start of the week. A closed
low at the base of the trof over the Mid Atlantic states will
lift slowly north into Tue, and then northeast Tue night into Wed.
There are some discrepancies amongst the guidance with how quickly
this feature lifts out, with the operational GFS being the slowest
of the solutions. The interaction with a northern branch trof
moving across Hudson Bay appears to be the key, with the
magnitude of this feature varying. A model consensus approach
seems to be best here with the differences being rather small for
this juncture in time. Upper level ridging then expands across the
area for the second half of the week with very warm conditions to
ensue. In addition, the Sub tropical high over the western
Atlantic begins to expand west toward the East Coast at the close
of the period. This will allow for a more humid SW flow to develop
around the periphery of the high.

As for any rain, the best chance looks to be Mon eve into Tue with
the approach of the upper low. The GFS is the deepest, farthest
west, and slowest with the sfc low. Model consensus is for a
weaker and faster low, thus will keep rain chances at around 50
percent at this time. There is general agreement for up to a few
tenths of an inch across the area. There could even be some
isolated thunderstorms Tue aft/eve due to steepening lapse rates
with the upper trof overhead. It becomes much more sketchy at the
end of the week with ridging aloft and likely capping. A frontal
system approaches from the NW, but will likely struggle reaching
the area. Chance of convection at this time is low.

Near seasonable temps at the onset of the period will become
unseasonably warm from mid week into the weekend with many
locations away from the coast getting into the lower 80s, possibly
warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure well southeast of Nantucket continues to track to
the northeast through today as weak surface high pressure builds
in behind the low. A weak pressure gradient will be across the
region through today. Tonight another low develops off the
Carolina coast. Meanwhile a mid and upper low remain along the
northeast and mid Atlantic coast through the forecast period.

VFR. An area of light rain was moving through the region east of
the NYC terminals, across Long Island and Connecticut. No impacts
to visibility are expected with the rain, which is expected to end
from west to east, 13Z to 16Z.

Winds will be from the north to northeast into early this
morning, 10 kts or less. A shift to a more northeast flow, 030 to
050 is likely by late this morning. Sea breezes are expected to
move through the terminals this afternoon, around 19Z at KJFK and
as late as 22Z at KISP and KTEB. At KGON NE winds 10-12 kt gusting
close to 20 kt are likely this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Monday through Thursday...
.Monday-Tuesday...Mostly VFR. A chance of showers with
local MVFR conditions possible. There is a chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening.
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sca conditions will develop on the ocean today and subside tngt.
Winds may be mrgnl...but seas will build to at least 5-6ft. Seas
at Hudson Canyon were at 9ft. Elsewhere...winds blw sca lvls.

5 ft seas develop again on the ocean Mon ngt as another low passes
near the waters. Winds and seas will subside Tue night into Wed
with high pressure building across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Less than a 1/4 inch of rainfall is expected today. Showers Mon
afternoon into Tue will bring potentially a few tenths at a time
where they do occur.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW



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