Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 240916
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
416 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front to the north retreats back as a warm front on
Friday. High pressure will remain steady over the western Atlantic
through Friday night. A frontal system approaches Saturday and
crosses the region Saturday Night. High pressure builds towards
the area Sunday into Monday. A couple of fast moving
disturbances may bring unsettled conditions to area Monday Night into
the middle and late part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
East coast ridging and western atlantic high pressure control the
region today.

Models have backed off on how far south a weak cold front will press
early this morning...stalling across NW hills or just north of the
region early this morning. A few shower possible across nw hills
this morning with approaching weak shortwave...but most concentrated
activity appears to be across central NY/New england.

With region in warm sector...another early spring like day today.
Model soundings and high-res guidance indicating potential
for stratus/fog to briefly developing across LI/SE CT around
daybreak...with a gradual improvement in the morning. With 50 Td
airmass running over the 40 degree waters...climo and high res
guidance pointing towards advection fog/stratus developing along the
NJ coast and working northward towards the south and east coastal
areas this aft/eve.

Not much indication of stratus development across the interior this
morning...and expectation is for mostly sunny skies with just
some high/mid deck filtering sunshine.

With SW flow aloft and plenty of sunshine...temps across NYC
metro/NE NJ/Lower Hud/and interior SW Ct should be able to climb
well into the 60s...with lower 70s for areas W of the Hudson
River with deeper mixing. Marine influence will likely limit
temps to the 50s for coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
East coast ridging tonight...will give way to a central plains PAC
upper low shearing into Hudson bay low on Saturday...with associated
trough and frontal system swinging towards the region late in the
day and then though Sat night.

Coastal stratus/fog development are favored in a second night of
mild/moist southerly flow tonight. Models soundings and high-
res/SREF guidance strongly indicating more widespread stratus/fog
development across much of the region tonight...which may linger
across CT/LI much of the day with low-level flow backing more to the
s/se. Temps will likely be cooler on Sat with more of an onshore
flow and cloud cover...with temps ranging from well into the 60s for
areas well NW and W of the Hudson...to 50s for south and east
coastal areas once again. Not much in the way of forcing or focus
for rain overnight into Sat morning...so shower threat should be
isolated at best. Can`t rule our some patchy drizzle development later
tonight into Sat morning as well if low-levels saturate
sufficiently...but low confidence at this point.

Main rain activity will be along and immediately behind an
approaching frontal system. A narrow band of convection will likely
approach from PA/NY along the leading edge of the front late Sat
into Sat eve...with strong convergence of marginally unstable and +2-
3 std PWAT airmass advecting in along a 40 kt llj...aided by approaching
shortwave axis forcing. Potential for a brief period of heavy
rain...30-40 mph wind gusts and embedded thunder with this line...mainly
west of the Hudson...as there should be some weak
surface/elevated instability to work with. This line should
weaken as it encounters the stable marine layer along the coast.
Otherwise...some lighter post frontal activity Sat eve ahead of
approaching shortwave axis...before shifting offshore by around
midnight.

In the wake of the shortwave axis/cold front Sat night...a dry
and cooler airmass will build in on breezy NW flow. With strong
caa and deep mixing in wake of cold front...winds gusts of 30
to 40 mph possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds towards the area on Sunday and Sunday
night. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 40s with
low temperatures Sunday night in the low to mid 30s along the
coast and upper 20s inland.

High pressure moves offshore Monday, as a storm system moves out of
the mid Atlantic states Monday night and Tuesday. A chance of rain
and snow are possible with the storm system. Light rain is
possible again on Tuesday night and into early Wednesday as a
warm front pushes north of the region Wednesday, followed by a
cold front later Wednesday. High Pressure builds behind the cold
front on Thursday.

Temperatures during this period should be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front remains north of the Tri-State Region today. A cold
front approaches on Saturday.

All of the area was VFR at 9Z. The main concern is that stratus and
fog develop right over the area through this morning. No significant
changes have been made to the TAFs yet. If development does occur,
it may linger along at least the south coast, including JFK, most if
not all of the day.

The stratus and fog will attempt to develop along the coast this
afternoon, then should rapidly develop and overspread the area this
evening. Timing of restrictions may be sped up in the 12Z TAFs.

Southerly flow generally at or below 10kt is expected through the
TAF period.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus
blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due
IFR or lower conditions.

KLGA TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus
blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due
IFR or lower conditions.

KEWR TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus
blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due
IFR or lower conditions.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus
blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due
IFR or lower conditions.

KHPN TAF Comments: There is a low chance that fog and stratus
blossom over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due
IFR or lower conditions.

KISP TAF Comments:There is a low chance that fog and stratus blossom
over the area through 15Z, requiring a major revision due IFR or
lower conditions.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Tonight-Saturday...Mainly IFR or lower into Saturday morning before
possibly improving to MVFR or VFR.
.Saturday night...MVFR or lower likely with rain.
.Sunday...VFR.
.Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Possible MVFR in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Persistent S/SW flow around western atlantic high pressure and long
period east swells of around 10 will have seas hovering around 4 to
5 ft through Saturday morning.Will hold off of SCA due to
marginal nature of hazard.

Ocean seas should gradually build to SCA levels Saturday
afternoon ahead of a cold front...with marginal SCA gusts
possible. Higher confidence is in SCA gusts in the wake of
frontal passage Sat Night...with even potential for a brief
period of gale gusts.

SCA conditions expected to continue across the ocean waters on
Sunday. Winds and waves will then gradually subside Sunday night
into Monday as high pressure moves south of the area. The next
chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will be Monday night
into Tuesday as winds strengthen following a warm frontal
passage. Winds and seas may remain at or near Small Craft
Advisory conditions through late week ahead of a cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A quarter to one half of an inch of rain is likely Saturday...with
locally up to an inch. No hydrologic impacts are expected through
next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The following are record high temperatures for Friday February 24,
2017 along with the forecast high temperature.

Record High Temperature          Forecast High Temperature
-----------------------          -------------------------
Central Park........75 (1985)    68
LaGuardia...........73 (1985)    67
Kennedy.............60 (1984)    57
Islip...............59 (2000)    56
Newark..............73 (1985)    70
Bridgeport..........60 (2016)    56

The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Saturday
February 25, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature.

Record Max Minimum Temperature   Forecast Minimum Temperature
------------------------------   ----------------------------
Central Park........51 (1930)    50
LaGuardia...........49 (1996)    50
Kennedy.............46 (1996)    48
Islip...............47 (1996)    47
Newark..............47 (1996)    47
Bridgeport..........44 (1996)    46

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Fig/NV
HYDROLOGY...Fig/NV
CLIMATE...NV



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