Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 082004
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT...THEN STALLS JUST
SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WITH A POSSIBLE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN SECTIONS 00-02Z...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST 3 TO 6Z.

WILL LAYER POPS ACCORDINGLY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER/MID 70S.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING
ON ALL ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SFC FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH 80S TO
NEAR 90 ANTICIPATED.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY FLOW.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ON ALL
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUING THREAT FOR PCPN WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE OF FINALLY PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE TRI STATE AREA AFTER 00Z THURS...THEN STALLING THE
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z THURS MORNING. AREA REMAINS
PLACED UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.
COMBINATION OF THE FORCING AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONT AND THE
ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO TRIGGER ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE EAST. AS FOR
SEVERITY LEVEL...DECENT SHEAR EXPECTED WITH VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50
KTS...BUT INSTABILITY MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THINGS. SURGE OF
MOISTURE RIDES THE FRONT...BUT AXIS OF HEAVIEST PWAT VALUES LOOKS TO
STAY TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE AREA. SO OVERALL...THINKING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SMALL HAIL IN ANY EVENING
DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR. WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES
TO THE SOUTH...COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...BUT NOTHING IN TERMS OF
FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY DURING THE DAY
THURS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. HOWEVER...THURS COULD VERY WELL END UP A DRY DAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN THURS NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST AND THE FLOW
ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO TURN MORE ZONAL. DRY WX THEN SETS UP FOR FRI-SAT.
12Z MODELS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND EVEN
REACHING THE REGION...SO HAVE KEPT SAT MOSTLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH A LOW END SLIGHT CHC PSBL FOR SAT AFTN WEST AND NORTH OF
THE CITY WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP AND A DECENT VORT MAX
PASSES THROUGH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTIVE OF PCPN FORMING
BY SUNDAY AFTN THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
MODEL RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS ON INTO TUES...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED THEN SOMETIME BY WED MORNING.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...USING A GENERAL MOS/WPC BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
01-05Z MAINLY FOR CITY TERMINALS AND N/W...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED
TO THE EAST OF KHPN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FEATURE VERY GUSTY
WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO 35-40 KT FOR A BRIEF TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE
01-05Z WINDOW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTION IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS HAZE/PATCHY FOG WHERE MVFR OR POSSIBLY
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR...LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOME
INTERIOR TERMINALS.

S-SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT...GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KT...SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AND PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SUSTAINED NEAR 10-15 KT GUSTS NEAR 20 KT LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS.
TIMING OF TSRA COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS.
TIMING OF TSRA COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS.
TIMING OF TSRA COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS.
TIMING OF TSRA COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS.
TIMING OF TSRA COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS.
TSRA POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 02-05Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...ISO TSTMS. SW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH EVENING WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS. SW WINDS DIMINISHING...BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE.
.THURSDAY...MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE
INCREASING WINDS.

SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURS...GENERALLY 5-6 FT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SEAS
DROPPING BELOW 5 FT BY THURS AFTN. THEN EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT IS LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD FALL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

ANY STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD LEAVE TOTALS CLOSER
TO AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SEARS/PW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/PW





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