Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 222355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

High pressure will dominate through most of the week. A cold
frontal passage is likely on Friday. High pressure will then
build into the region for the weekend.


Made minor changes with this update to reflect the latest trends
in observations and guidance.

With the upper trough exiting to the northeast into eastern Canada
this evening the upper flow becomes zonal tonight, while at the
lower and mid levels a ridge builds to the west.

The air will be dry, with lowering dew points, with a cloud free
night, and the winds decouple and become light to calm inland, so
good radiational cooling conditions set up for tonight. Leaned
toward the cooler guidance and lowered temperatures inland and at
the normally cooler areas, especially across the Long Island Pine


The ridge continues to build to the west Tuesday and Tuesday night
with heights rising through the period. With the strong ridge in
place and strong sudsidence, expected to be cloud free. There may
be a few CU Tuesday early morning with initial heating of the day.

With full sun and good mixing and a weak return flow setting up as
the high shifts off shore expecting highs to rebound a few degrees
from Mondays highs. Combination of winds shifting to the southwest
expect sea breezes to develop.

Tuesday night weak warm advection continues with dew points
increasing, resulting in higher lows Tuesday night.


The models were in good agreement through the long term, so the
Superblend was generally used.

High pressure over the east coast on Wednesday will slide offshore
on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. This will
allow for a warming trend Thursday and Friday with an increase in
humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the
frontal passage on Friday. Otherwise, some development is possible
late Thursday into Thursday night mainly along and west of the
Hudson River as the upper ridge begins to break down. A 1020s high
pressure system then builds into the northeastern states over the
weekend, producing another round of fair weather. There is a hint of
some isolated development Sunday afternoon in the ECMWF and to a
lesser extent the GFS. It appears to be upslope component terrain
induced activity, so this would favor locations just out of the
forecast area. As a result, only very low chances for rain have been
included in the forecast. A strong shortwave trough then is progged
to drop towards the area on Monday. Chances for precipitation have
been included in the forecast, but this is so far out they have been
limited as the timing of the dynamic feature may be off.


High pressure builds over the area by Tue morning...then slides
offshore just to our south during the aftn.

VFR. Gusty NW winds diminish by 03z...with sustained winds
decreasing to less than 10 kt and becoming northerly tonight.
Seabreezes develop on Tue.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/

KJFK TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 16z and 18z Tue.

KLGA TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18z and 20z Tue.

KEWR TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18z and 20z Tue.

KTEB TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 19z and 21z Tue.

KHPN TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 18z and 20z Tue.

KISP TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected between 17z and 19z Tue.

.Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday Night-Thursday night...VFR.
.Friday...Chance of afternoon showers/tstms from the NYC metro
terminals and points North and West, with brief MVFR conditions


Made minor changes with this update to reflect the latest trends
in observations and guidance.

Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels
through Tuesday night as there will be a relaxed pressure gradient
over the forecast waters.

Winds and seas are progged to remain below small craft advisory
levels Wednesday through Saturday, with high pressure generally in
control. There is a suggestion of tropical swell encroaching on the
waters Sunday into Monday.


Dry tonight through Tuesday night.

Widespread significant precipitation is not expected Wednesday
through Monday.




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