Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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851
FXUS61 KOKX 031719
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
119 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW TONIGHT. A COMPLEX
AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
TOO MUCH DUE TO CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EACH
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR
50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN
ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN
STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN US
AND ERN PAC...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EWD WITH A SPLIT FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI AND THEN WEAKENS AS
IT CONSOLIDATES WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE
CUTOFF TRACKS TO THE E COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP THE
ERN SEABOARD...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME
IDEA...THERE ARE MAINLY TIMING...BUT SLIGHT STRENGTH ISSUES. THIS
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THU WILL BE TOO BAD AS ONCE WAVE DEPARTS
AND THE NEXT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC
POPS BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY. THE 03/00Z EC LOOKS
MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WITH THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING UP
THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAIN.

DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT...ALTHOUGH AN UPSTREAM KICKER DIVING OUT OF
CANADA ON SAT SHOULD HELP. SCHC POPS SAT DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT
AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

STEADY RAIN IS NOW MOSTLY OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND...BUT POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE OR HIT/MISS LIGHT RAIN STILL REMAIN ATTM. JUDGING FROM
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...PREVAILING CONDS
NOW APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AS EARLY AS ORIGINALLY
FCST...AND HAVE PUSHED THAT IMPROVEMENT FORWARD IN TIME TO ABOUT
20Z-21Z AT MOST SITES. THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR
VARIABILITY FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH BRIEF WINDOWS OF MVFR...BUT
THEY WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN TAF.

E-NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND THEN NE- ENE
LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND
SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
PDS OF RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. NE WINDS
G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

OVER THE OCEAN...NE WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF
SEAS REACH AND HOVER AROUND 5 FT TONIGHT.

SCA POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS LATE
WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS LIKELY LINGERING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR SCA WINDS ON THE OCEAN FRI...BUT MORE LIKELY
SEAS...CONTINUING INTO SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT AS BULK OF THE RAIN
MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/24
NEAR TERM...BC/24/PW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN/MALOIT
MARINE...BC/24/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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