Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 160947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
547 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10-13Z...THROUGH ABOUT 15-17Z OR SO. THEN
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS
FOR DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW OR N BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS TODAY. NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24






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