Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241253
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES
TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT...HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS AND TWEAKED UP HIGHS SLIGHTLY.

980MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF 12Z. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO SE CANADA WHILE DEEPENING TODAY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED N OF THE AREA...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALREADY REACHING
THE 60 DEGREE MARK. STEADY RAIN IS CONFINED TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT WITH SHOWERY NATURE TO THE W. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO END
THE RAIN A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST. POINTS W OF THE NY/CT AND
NYC/NASSAU LINE SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN TO THE EAST OF HERE.

KOKX VWP INDICATING 70KTS AT 3K FT...WHICH IS MAXED OUT AND WILL
BEGIN DECREASING AFT 13Z. EXPECT WIND ADVSY
GUSTS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING. ADVSY INCLUDES COASTAL
CT...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND THE REST OF NYC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BRIDGES AND HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NAM/GFS INDICATING 40-50KT
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FT. THE HRRR...RAP...AND WRF MODELS ARE EVEN
HIGHER BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE.

STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARM
FRONT THROUGH AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING. STRONGEST WINDS
OCCUR THIS MORNING AND WITH THE INCREASED STABILITY AND CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY E OF NYC...THINK THE ADVSY THREAT WILL
CEASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP
ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS.

CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE
WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS
STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A
WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC.

LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY
TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR
HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT
AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
COASTAL LOW.

FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF
SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT
AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY
FOR INTERIOR S CT.

THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW
QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW
FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED N OF THE AIRSPACE AND WILL CONTINUE HEADING
NORTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHRA ENDS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY IFR TO START. BETTER CHANCES OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KEWR/KTEB/KSWF LATE MORNING/AFTN.

S WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT GUSTS
20-30 KT STILL PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH MID-MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THRU
THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FCST. ACCUMULATING
SNOW PROBABLE FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW.
N WINDS 10-15 KT AM...INCR 15-20 KT EVENING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
WNW 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. NW 10-15 KT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND LLJ THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN GALES ON
ALL WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS TO PULL BACK THE END TIME
OF THE GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 11Z TO 06Z TUE AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SCA CONDS BY THEN. END TIME OF REMAINING WATERS REMAINS
23Z TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR MAY FALL BELOW A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHT WNW GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO.

CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN
ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS
PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2/3 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS
LIKELY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE.

OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO
LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER
TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........72
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........66
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........70
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........71
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........67

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ010>012.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...






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