Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 290532
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. GUSTS SHOULD ONLY REMAIN IN
THE NYC TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 8-9Z.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG. VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE ABOUT 1
FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...







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