Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 270523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURLY GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST IS OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE NYC METRO THAT MAY HOLD SOME SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE AND SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES THROUGH. SOME
CIRRUS COULD BRUSH BY THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

OTHERWISE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...DRY AIR...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAV/MET BLEND AND YIELD SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S INLAND...MIDDLE 60S IN THE NYC METRO...AND LOWER 60S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND
IS REPLACED BY WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WILL
REINFORCE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS
THE AREA.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWS TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

VFR. 050-060 SCT-BKN CU THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT NW WINDS BACK TO THE W/WSW AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW FLOW LIKELY AT KGON IN AFTERNOON. S SEABREEZE NOT
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT SW/SSW SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT
KJFK IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER POTENTIAL AT KBDR/KISP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED AFT/EVE
SHRA/TSRA SUN AND MON FOR WESTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WITH
LESS THAN 10 KT ON THE LI SOUND AND THE SURROUNDING BAYS. SEAS WILL
BE 2 TO 3 FT.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...FIG/DS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DS



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