Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 181442
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A REINFORCING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THIS FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY N&W OF
NYC METRO...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS AFT. WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PICK UP THIS MORNING AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING WITH
THIS ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND SHOT OF CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR SUN.
BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS ON SUN WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S. TIGHT GRADIENT AND
GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS 15-25 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS LATE SUN NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT...INTERIOR NE
NJ...AND EASTERN LI. TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLY ENOUGH AND CIRRUS DOES NOT
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. THE THREAT
OF FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE
HWO.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS AND DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS
ON MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OF
THE REGION.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST FOR THE MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODELS CONVERGING A
BIT ON WHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN THE UPPER LOW
CUTS OFF...BUT STILL SOME PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BASED ON
STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CUTOFF. THIS ALL HAS IMPLICATIONS ON LOCATION OF RESULTANT
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF
WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON THE REGION. LATEST RUNS WOULD
KEEP THE STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL MODEST UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.

DESPITE THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTIES...OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY...COOL...AND
WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPTION IS AT KGON WHERE COULD SEE
SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15 TO MAYBE 16Z. SPOTTY
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
NORTHERN/WESTERN TERMINALS. WOULD EXPECT TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT
REDUCE CONDITIONS BELOW VFR...SO DUE TO EXPECTED SPORADIC NATURE
AND LIMITED TIME AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION DO NOT REFLECT IN TAFS.

SW WINDS BECOME WSW-W LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FRONT
- STRONGEST AT CITY TERMINALS AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SPORADIC GUSTS 15-20
KT MAINLY BEFORE 02Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND G20KT EARLY.
.MONDAY...VFR. W WINDS G15-18KT.
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ON OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SWELLS FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO WILL PUSH SEAS AS HIGH AS 9 FT TODAY PER
REGULAR WAVEWATCH WHOSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS ARE PREFERRED OVER
HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SEAS BECOMING MORE WIND DRIVEN ON SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY WITH NW FLOW GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AFTER A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. BEFORE THAT...SHOULD SEE W FLOW GUSTING UP
TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER QUIET CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...SCA CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE TUE NIGHT AND LAST INTO AT LEAST THU
EVENING WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES.

FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS...EXPECT A MORE MARGINAL SCA EVENT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH W WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL TONIGHT...BUT NW FLOW SHOULD RAMP UP TO SCA
LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AFTER A
SECONDARY COLD FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT/GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV



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