Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271507 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1007 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE MVG NE TOWARD THE AREA IS CAUSING GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW / RAIN SHOWERS. UNTIL 17Z OR NOON...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PCPN TO NEARLY 50% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN NJ. ALSO INCREASED CHC OF PCPN ACROSS ENTIRE LOCAL AREA...WITH PCPN TYPE FALLING MAINLY AS SNOW AT TEMPS LOWER THAN 38 DEGS AND MAINLY AS RAIN ABV 38 DEGS. TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 30S TODAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WHICH SEEMS TO AGREE WITH FORECAST PROFILES AND EXPECTED 2 METER TEMPS TODAY. THESE EXPECTED TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...REPLACED BY A GENERAL FLAT NW TO SE FLOW. SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH IN TIME. ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TONIGHT WILL END AS THE FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS NORTH. PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY PER MOS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TODAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR COULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR COULD ALSO PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND THRU AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONSTANT. WINDS PRIMARILY BELOW 10 KT. DIRECTION SHOULD FAVOR NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. HOVER...AT KEWR...IT PROBABLY FAVORS SOUTH OF 310 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON... .FRI-SAT NIGHT...VFR. .SUN-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. ALTHO WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN. OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...GC/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JC/MET MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...PW

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