Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 232015 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 315 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move slowly off the coast Friday followed by a cold front late Saturday. High pressure will follow through Tuesday. A cold front will move across the area Wednesday followed by high pressure Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Clouds will increase through sunset as the northern stream mid level short wave moves east across the area this evening. Clouds from the southern stream long wave will remain mainly southeast of the region through early tonight. High pressure will remain centered over the mid atlantic states with a W flow near 10 mph tonight. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Fair weather with increasing temperatures are on tap for the local area. Low level warm air advection will develop by Friday afternoon and increase Friday night as a strong low pressure system moves east across southeast Canada, north of New England. Southwest winds will transport warmer air northeast across the region, bringing near normal temperatures during the day Friday then above normal temperatures Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will be approaching from the Ohio Valley Saturday. Models do not have a significant amount of precipitation forecast with this frontal passage. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the low 50s along the coast and mid to upper 40s inland. Pressure gradient will increase behind the front on Saturday night and into Sunday, which will increase winds to 15 to 20 mph. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 30 to near 40. High pressure builds in on Sunday into Tuesday. Temperatures in the mid to upper 40s Sunday and Monday will begin to rise into the low to mid 50s by Tuesday, which is above normal for this time of year. A cold front is forecast to move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture associated with this front is expected to dissipate as it approaches our area and the frontal passage may end up being precipitation free. Even with the frontal passage, temperatures are forecast to be above normal into Wednesday. High pressure builds back on Thursday with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds to the south through Friday, while a weak surface trough passes through the area this evening. VFR. N-NW winds less than 10kt gradually back around to the west (left of 310 magnetic) this afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday-Friday Night...VFR. Light W winds, backing to the SW by late morning/early afternoon. .Saturday-Saturday Night...Low chance of -SHRA and MVFR with frontal passage. Windshift from SW to NW late afternoon/evening. .Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds G20-30kt forecast. .Monday...VFR. Winds back to more westerly and decrease. Gusts 15-20kt possible. .Tuesday...VFR. SW winds G15-20kt. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory/SCA from Sandy Hook NJ east to Moriches Inlet, NY was cancelled as both wind and seas are forecast to remain less than 25 kt and 5 feet. The SCA from Moriches Inlet east to Montauk Point remains in effect as SE swells with a period of 10 seconds will continue until around 5 am Friday morning. Winds and seas will remain tranquil through the day Friday. The next chance for reaching SCA levels will be Friday Night and Saturday across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters as SW winds increase to 15-20 kt and seas rebuild to around 5 feet. Below small craft advisory level conditions continue on all non-ocean zones on Saturday with small craft conditions likely over the ocean waters through Sunday behind a frontal system. As high pressure builds across the area waters Sunday night into Monday seas will improve. Ocean seas may builds towards small craft conditions again Tuesday into Tuesday Night ahead of next frontal system and remain above small craft conditions through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through the next 7 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM EST Friday for ANZ350. && $$

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