Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 202254 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 554 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the area through Tuesday morning, then offshore in the afternoon. A warm front passes near or just north of the area Tuesday night. A trailing cold front follows and will remain near the region through Friday. The cold front lifts north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday. Another cold front moves across the region Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure returns for the end of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Tonight will be tranquil as high pressure both aloft and at the surface builds in from the west, with clear skies and diminishing northerly winds. Overnight lows will return to near seasonable levels with readings falling into the lower 20s well inland, to around freezing NYC metro. Latest guidance supports forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure builds offshore Tuesday afternoon with the upper ridge following behind in the evening. Winds will veer around from the NE to S/SE by afternoon with coolers highs, in the mid and upper 40s. This will still be several degrees above normal. Warm advection develops out ahead of a warm front that passes across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday evening and then near or just north of the area overnight. Weak thermal forcing and lack of deep moisture will result in a minimal chance of light rain late, with the best chance being across the Lower Hudson Valley. Any rainfall will less than a tenth of an inch. The combination of increasing cloud cover and winds veering around to the SW will keep temperatures from falling too much lower than daytime daytime highs on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The main story in the long term continues to be unseasonably warm conditions. Mainly dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday, and then a more unsettled weather pattern sets up for the first half of the upcoming weekend. A warm front will be moving through on Wednesday. Any light rain with the front should dissipate by Wednesday morning. Trailing cold front approaches, but will likely have a hard time moving through. Lingering clouds should hold in the morning before at least some partial clearing in the afternoon as the atmosphere dries out. Highs in the middle to upper 50s expected across the NYC metro and interior Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ. A few 60 degree readings are possible as well. Across Long Island and southern Connecticut, onshore component to the wind will hold temperatures in the lower 50s. Thursday still looks like the warmest day of the week with the potential for record high temperatures. Surface high pressure will be anchored off the southeast coast with upper ridging in place. Unseasonably warm air continues to be transported around the ridge and offshore high. As has been the case recently in anomalously warm regimes, statistical guidance and model blends have been running too cool. Will continue to forecast highs above guidance with upper 60s to near 70 a good possibility in NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Further east, winds off the ocean may hold temperatures down in the upper 50s to near 60s. See climate section for record highs on Thursday (Feb 23rd). The lingering cold front attempts to move through Thursday night as a progressive high moves across southeast Canada. Confidence in this is not high and it remains possible the boundary never fully moves south of the area. The latest operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF as well as several GEFS members have the boundary nearby Friday morning, then retreating north. Have lowered pops to slight chance as overall moisture is limited. Highs will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover and the placement of the boundary. Forecast highs Friday are a bit cooler than Thursday although it should be noted the latest ECE MOS has highs in the middle to upper 60s across the region. The retreat of the warm front is due to the amplification of a shortwave trough across the central states and deepening surface low moving through the Great Lakes. The timing of the trailing cold front on Saturday is where there is greatest uncertainty to sensible weather across the region. In collaboration with neighboring offices, have raised pops to likely Saturday afternoon/evening as there is decent agreement among the models and ensembles for measurable precipitation during this time. Temperatures on Saturday continue well above normal and will ultimately be dependent on the timing of the precipitation and cold front. The cold front moves across sometime late Saturday into Saturday night with high pressure building for the end of the weekend. This signals a return to more seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds over the region tonight, then offshore late Tuesday. VFR through the TAF period. Northwest flow through 00Z, then winds veer to the northeast overnight becoming light and variable. Southerly flow then develops late Tuesday. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to around 20kt are possible through 01Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to around 20kt are possible through 00Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to around 20kt are possible through 00Z. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Rest of Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...MVFR or lower at times. Light rain possible. .Thursday-Friday...MVFR, possibly lower, in stratus and fog. .Saturday...MVFR likely with showers. && .MARINE...
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Tranquil conditions are on tap as high pressure builds across the area waters through Tuesday morning, and then offshore in the afternoon. Northerly winds this evening gradually diminish with the gradient wind remaining weak through the end of the week. The next chance for SCA conditions will be Saturday as the next low pressure and associated frontal system approaches.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the upcoming week. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Thursday February 23, 2017 Central Park........70 (1985) LaGuardia...........66 (1985) Kennedy.............62 (1990) Islip...............61 (2012) Newark..............68 (1985) Bridgeport..........60 (2012) && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/DW NEAR TERM...DW/PW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...MET MARINE...DS/DW/PW HYDROLOGY...DS/DW CLIMATE...

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