Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230254 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1054 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WARNING ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND A BLEND WAS USED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR. EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY. QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...VARIABLE TO VFR IN PLACES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED POCKETS IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAINFALL INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS DURATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS...OUTSIDE OF AMENDMENTS. WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE AT EASTERN AND COASTAL TERMINALS. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS. .FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY... REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON. SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT. STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ010>012. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ078>081. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340- 345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/JM NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM HYDROLOGY...MET/JM

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