-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 270329
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ONLY CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATES WAS TO TRIM BACK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ABOUT 4 TO 6 INCHES WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BASED ON RADAR...HI-
RES MODEL RUNS AND 00Z NAM. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WESTERN EXTENT OF
HEAVIER AND MOST PERSISTENT BANDING MAY STALL ALONG THE NYC AND
HUDSON RIVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS BAND. SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WESTERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER BANDING SET-UP
AFTER 06Z...AND AT THAT TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
BE DROPPED TO THE WEST OF THAT BOUNDARY.

IMPRESSIVE LIFT VIA CLOUD TOP COOLING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...WITH A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...989 LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE
DELMARVA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY TRACK NE/N TO
AROUND THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK. BANDS OF HEAVY
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NW INTO LI/CT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL RATES PICKING UP. AS LARGER BANDS
SOLIDIFY OVERNIGHT...RATES SHOULD PICK UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER
HOUR UNDER THOSE BANDS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

SO FAR HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS LI AND
NYC WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MAX GUSTS 40
TO 45 MPH BEING MEASURED ACROSS EASTERN LI AND CT...AND NEAR 40
MPH TO THE CITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS
EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT. SEAS BUILD TO 16 TO 22 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE TWIN
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND/NYC.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NYC/NJ COAST ADJACENT TO
NY HARBOR...AND THE CT COASTS.

THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION.

THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS:

- WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
  ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN
FACING BARRIER BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO STORM TIDE AND 7 TO
12 FT WAVES WEST AND 10 TO 15 FT EAST. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT
STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN
FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-
     108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW/NV
CLIMATE...