-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
623
FXUS61 KOKX 150558
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
158 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front approaching from the west will move through
overnight and remain nearby as a Bermuda high remains anchored
well offshore. The boundary will lift north by Thursday, with an
attendant cold front following into late week. Behind it, high
pressure will attempt to build in this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers continue to weaken as they slowly shift east. A few
areal flood warnings remain in effect late this evening,
otherwise not anticipating any additional warnings outside of
the Saddle River at Lodi where it is now anticipated to go into
minor flood stage near midnight.

Seasonably warm and very muggy conditions will prevail through
tonight, with low temps from the upper 60s well inland to the
mid 70s invof NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AM showers/tstms still possible Tue morning from NYC metro east
with the front still in the vicinity, then a chance for late day
showers/tstms from NYC north/west in the afternoon with a subtle
sfc trough still in the vicinity and a mid level shortwave
trough approaching. This activity should be on the weaker side
with instability much more limited and wind fields aloft weak.

Of more concern will be increasing heat/humidity. High temps on
Tue should reach the upper 80s/lower 90s from NYC north/west,
with mid 80s elsewhere. Combined with dewpoints in the upper
60s/lower 70s this could yield heat index values of 95-99 for
much of NE NJ and also parts of the lower Hudson Valley and the
CT river valley. A short fused heat advisory might be needed for
some or all of these areas.

Low temps Tue night should range once again from the upper 60s
well inland, to the mid 70s in the NYC metro area and western
Long Island.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Increasing likelihood for heat indices to exceed 95F Wednesday
  through Friday across much of the region.

* Unsettled pattern with chances for afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms into late week.

The weakening frontal boundary lingers nearby into midweek as
sprawling high pressure remains anchored well out in the
Atlantic. SW flow helps usher in additional warm, moist air, and
temperatures nudge upwards. While nothing remarkable for mid
July, temperatures Wed through Fri likely top the upper 80s to
lower 90s for most, and with dew pts progged at least into the
upper 60s and lower 70s, heat indices should achieve mid to
upper 90s, with the hottest locales exceeding 100F. Heat
headlines will likely be needed as we move closer.

One caveat may be the unsettled pattern, with showers and
thunderstorms possible each afternoon through late week with
nearby frontal boundaries, though the overall severe risk
appears low. However, deep layer moisture should keep PWATs near
or above 2 inches, and with it, the potential for higher
rainfall rates with any convective activity.

Conditions potentially begin to settle into at least the start
of the weekend behind a cold fropa, as high pressure attempts
to build in from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front remains over the region through Tuesday.

A fair amount of uncertainty in the flight category forecast
overnight as conditions may vary from IFR (mainly for eastern
terminals) to VFR (across city terminals, with brief IFR to
MVFR) tonight. Add to that the saturated ground from the heavy
rain yesterday, which may aid in development of fog across NE
NJ. The question is whether this will advect or develop over the
city terminals as the night progresses. VFR for Tuesday into
Tuesday night outside any possible showers/tstms.

Light and variable winds overnight, becoming S-SSW 5-10kt
Tuesday.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected with overall low confidence in flight
category forecast tonight/early Tuesday morning. MVFR could
prevail all night with brief IFR possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR during the afternoon/evening with a chance
of a shower/thunderstorm. MVFR or lower possible, especially
east of NYC metro at night.

Wednesday-Friday: MVFR or lower in any afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SW flow increasing to over 15 kt could build seas close to 5 ft
on the outer ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet Thu night.
Otherwise, afternoon/evening showers/tstms through the period
could produce locally higher winds/seas at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watch remains in effect until midnight for NE NJ, the
lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT. Residual flooding should
continue for the next hour or two.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is low through Tuesday, with a 10 kt or
less onshore flow and weakening S-SE swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...