-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231540
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1140 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to the east this morning, followed by
Canadian high pressure building into the region through the
weekend. Low pressure may impact the area during the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The fcst is on track with no major changes made. There could be
an isolated shower this morning ahead of the front over Long
Island, also across southern CT ahead of an interesting
southward- moving outflow boundary from overnight showers in the
Berkshires. Otherwise today should be mainly dry, with skies
already mostly sunny from NYC north/west and becoming mostly
sunny by afternoon farther east.

With abundant sunshine this afternoon, highs should reach up to
5 degrees above average. Highs should range from around 80 to
the mid 80s across most of the area.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A mean trough builds into the eastern 1/3 of the country tonight
and Thursday, with the trough axis staying well to the west. At
this time no significant shortwaves are progged to be embedded
in the resultant SW flow aloft, so it should be dry tonight and
Thursday with minimal cloud cover.

With a mostly clear to clear sky and winds falling off to
generally 5 mph or less outside of urban areas, should see some
decent radiational cooling outside of urban areas. Lows should
range from near normal in the NYC Metro to up to 5 degrees below
normal elsewhere. Lows into the 50s are expected outside of the
NYC Metro, western Long Island and the immediate CT coast, where
60s are forecast.

Highs on Thursday will be around 5 degrees cooler than today,
mainly from the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad area of Canadian high pressure will build over the Northeast
thru the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will
produce fair weather with blw average temps. A blend of the guidance
was used which was in good agreement. Cyclonic flow aloft will
result in diurnal cu at times, and an isold shwr cannot be ruled
out. The exact coverage, placement and timing is too uncertain to
include anything in the fcst attm except for nrn Orange county on
Fri where there is a clustering of model output. A 15 pop was
included there.

The models are suggesting the development of low pres off the Mid-
Atlantic during the middle of next week. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF
have something. A consensus of all the models was used for pcpn
potential, and pops were limited to the slight chance category due
to the time window being a week out with high uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front exits this morning, with high pressure building in.

VFR through the TAF period.

North northwest winds this morning should turn slightly more
westerly this afternoon. Northwest flow should be just strong
enough to preclude seabreeze development this afternoon.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change may be off by
+/- 1 hour. Low chance of afternoon seabreeze development.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-20kt into this afternoon.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-20kt into this afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Thursday-Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean seas are still at 5 ft at the outer buoys, and should
subside today as winds have diminished, falling to below SCA
levels W of Moriches inlet by 11 am and E of Moriches inlet by 2
pm. Quiet thereafter into Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical high tides are on the high side. Water levels
however should stay below minor coastal flood benchmarks.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CB/BC
MARINE...JMC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...JMC/Maloit
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...