-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071208
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
708 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...AND DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CLEARING SKIES AND NLY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODIFYING ARCTIC HI WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA TNGT. MSAS ANALYSIS AT
8Z PLACED THE 1044 CENTER OF THE HI OVER ERN MT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD TEMPS WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
PINE BARRENS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO FILTER IN FROM THE SW.

AN INCREASING HIGH OVC CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUN WITH BACKING MID AND
UPR LVL FLOW. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN IN THE AFTN. GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW LIFT IS FAIRLY ROBUST AFT 18Z...SO IT WILL JUST BE A
MATTER OF HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR SATURATION AND PCPN...WHICH BASED
ON THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN
MIXED IN ON LI AND IN THE CITY. FCST HAS BEEN SPED UP WITH MOST
SPOTS WITH CHCS FOR SNOW BY DARK. BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM...LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY 5 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AND THEN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE POLAR
VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY...WHICH WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES PHASING WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN
US...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
REGION WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BASED ON CLOSELY CLUSTERED CONSENSUS TRACK OF A DOUBLE
BARRELED COASTAL LOW...A TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS...PARTICULARLY NW ZONES...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE
POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH A BIT
OF COLD AIR DAMMING. SREF PLUMES INDICATING A MEAN OF 3 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS FAR NW ZONES...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS FOR
CITY COAST...WHICH MAY BE A GOOD BLEND BETWEEN COLDER ECMWF AND
WARMER GFS. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A WINTRY MORNING COMMUTE FOR
INTERIOR AREAS...WHILE AT THE CITY/COAST ROADS SHOULD MAINLY BE
WET WITH RAIN AND RISING TEMPS.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION WITH DRYING CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY...BUT THE
FRONT LINGERS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
FOR ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO POSSIBLY BRUSH THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS TIME BASED ON MODEL SPREAD.

THEN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...MODEL INDICATING SEVERAL
PIECES OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CANADA SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN
US. CURRENTLY HAVE TRENDED TEMPS TO STAY BELOW FREEZING FROM
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY BASED ON ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20S
FOR HIGHS LATE WEEK IF POLAR VORTEX DROPS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SE CANADA AS DEPICTED BY SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. STAY TUNED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 15Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY AT
NYC/NJ TERMINALS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT MAY BRIEFLY WAVER NEAR
310 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS/GUSTS DIMINISH SAT AFTN/EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...IFR. SNOW...THEN SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET/FZRA ACROSS INTERIOR. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ALONG COAST.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR EARLY...THEN RAIN.
SE WINDS 10-15 KT...BCMG NW LATE.
.MON NIGHT...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.TUE...VFR. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 15-25 KT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN THIS MORNING...MAY BE ABLE TO
BE DROPPED LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA
LVLS ON SUN WITH HIPRES OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ON THE OCEAN AND LI SOUND WATERS...POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT OCEAN SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS. MARGINAL SCA
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN. THE NEXT TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
EQUIPMENT...