Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 282152 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 552 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build eastward and become nearly stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast, while a warm front passes well to the north. The offshore high will dominate from Friday into Saturday before a cold front moves through on Sunday. The front may then become stationary just to the south early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Afternoon Cu are already scattering out more quickly than anticipated, so expect a mostly clear night. Thin high clouds could arrive this evening, then also some mid level clouds as a mid level vort max outruns a flattening upper ridge to the west. Lows tonight should be close to or a few degrees below MOS guidance mins, with 55-60 well inland and across much of eastern Long Island, and 60-65 elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The pressure gradient will tighten up by afternoon as the high moves out over the Atlantic, and as a warm front out ahead of low pressure in the upper Great Lakes sets up across upstate NY and New England, S-SW winds will increase to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph, and it is quite possible that much of Long Island and southern CT could see peak wind gusts close to 40 mph late in the afternoon. Temps away from immediate south-facing shores should peak in the 80s, though if the stronger southerly flow kicks in sooner than expected, much of Long Island may not make it out of the 70s. Highs in urban NE NJ may approach 90. Dangerous rip currents are expected at the ocean beaches, particularly in the afternoon and evening. For Thu night, with the warm front well off to the north do not expect much of any precip, though eastern areas could see some mid level clouds as an area of mid level moisture and weak instability rides across. It will also be warmer and more humid than recent nights, with lows 65-70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Bermuda high pressure will continue to usher in warmer and more humid air from Friday into Sunday. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms each period, with the better chances during the afternoon and early evening both Saturday and Sunday. Drier and less humid conditions return on Monday with the next chance at showers and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 80s with increasing humidity levels. A few 90 degree readings are also possible in the NYC metro and NE NJ. Max heat indices look to stay in the lower 90s both days at this time at these locations, with upper 80s elsewhere. Closer to the coast, onshore flow will keep highs in the lower to middle 80s. Temperatures should be a bit cooler on Sunday in the lower and middle 80s due to increasing clouds and higher coverage of showers/storms. Highs should gradually fall back closer to normal early next week. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will continue to build into the region before drifting offshore on Thursday. VFR. Westerly winds back SW this evening outside of sea breezes. SW or S winds behind sea breeze passage should prevail into this evening. Winds diminish this evening as well. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional and end an hour or two sooner than forecast. KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze shift to south may be delayed until closer to 23z. Chance that it stalls just south of the terminal with W winds prevailing into early evening. KEWR TAF Comments: Slight chance that sea breeze hovers within a mile or two of the terminal, causing winds to vary W to SSE from approx 00-02z. KTEB TAF Comments: Slight chance that sea breeze hovers within a mile or two of the terminal, causing winds to vary W to S from approx 00-02z. KHPN TAF Comments: Chance that sea breeze shifts winds to S for a couple of hour starting near 01-02z. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 16-19kt possible through around 00z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday afternoon...VFR. SSW G30kt along the coast. Slight chance of an shower/thunderstorm north and west. .Friday-Saturday morning...Mainly VFR. Chance of shra/tstm north and west Friday afternoon/evening. .Saturday afternoon-Sunday...Chance showers/thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions. .Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Quiet through Thu morning, then S-SW flow should increase and bring SCA conditions to all waters, though this may be mainly near shore across Long Island Sound. Winds may peak briefly at 35 kt across the bays late Thu afternoon, not long enough in duration to warrant a gale warning. Ocean seas should quickly respond and build to 5-6 ft Thu afternoon. Winds will diminish over the protected waters after dark on Thu, while SCA conds continue on the ocean mainly via higher seas of 5-6 ft. SCA conditions expected to continue on the ocean on Friday as a strong SW flow continues. Ocean seas may reach 4 to 6 feet on Friday, then slowly subside Friday night. A weaker pressure gradient is expected this weekend and into the beginning of next week, with quiet conditions on all waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected into the middle of next week. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) may still be sporadic due to a communication line outage. Return to full service time is still unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...FEB/JC MARINE...Fig/Goodman HYDROLOGY...Fig/Goodman EQUIPMENT...

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