Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261833 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 133 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDE EAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE LOWS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT MILD EARLY WINTER AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. BROAD RIDGING BUILDING UP THE EAST COAST...A LIGHT W-NW FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SHOULD YIELD SFC HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DESERT SW FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN WILL SHEAR OUT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEARBY SE CANADA BY SAT NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT. A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S...AND UPPER 50S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER URBAN NE NJ. THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT... WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS LATE ESPECIALLY WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER/MID 40S IN NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S INLAND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING FLATTENS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND PASS NOT TO FAR OFF TO THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASSING S OF LONG ISLAND SUN NIGHT/MON. MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. ONE BIG FEATURE TO NOTE NEXT WEEK IS THE VERY STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO THE NW STATES....WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS THAT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CHANCE POP WITH THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POP MAINLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. COLDER AIR IN PLACE HERE BUT AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE PCPN WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT AGAIN WITH AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT AMOUNTS...NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVERALL A COLDER TREND. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL THEREAFTER.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. WNW SFC WINDS LIGHTEN THIS AFTN AS THEY BACKS TO THE W. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WND DIRECTION TO WSW THIS AFTN. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS AFTN. DIRECTION STRADDLES 310 MAG THROUGH 20Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS AFTN. DIRECTION STRADDLES 310 MAG THROUGH 20Z. NO GUSTS THIS AFTN. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS AFTN. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO W THIS AFTN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GRADUAL BACKING OF WIND DIRECTION TO WSW THIS AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED... .SAT...VFR. .SUNDAY...VFR...LOCALIZED MVFR INLAND. CHC -SHRA. .MON-WED...VFR. && .MARINE...
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INCREASING W FLOW COULD BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD ALSO BRING OCEAN SEAS E OF MORICHES INLET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ATTM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/MARINE...GOODMAN AVIATION...TONGUE

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