Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 302142 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 542 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The region will remain in between high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest through the weekend. The low then slowly weakens as it moves towards the region Monday as high pressure builds in from the north. This high will then continue to nose down into the region through the middle of the week, then retreat to the northeast by the end of the upcoming work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A closed upper low remains near the Lower Great Lakes as a surface front remains to the south and west. With the set up remaining basically the same as today, expect more the same tonight - scattered to intermittent showers. Could possibly even just end up with periods of drizzle depending on exactly how things end up playing out. Gusty NE winds gradually diminish through the night. Temperatures should not fall too much from todays highs, maybe 5 degrees or so for coastal/urban areas and up to 10 degrees in higher elevations. This is consistent with a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The closed low tracks into Upstate New York through Saturday night as it gradually opens into a trough. Showers will become more spotty with time, so only have chance pops both periods. Highs Saturday were based on a blend of MET/MAV/ECS guidance, NAM 2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 975 hPa per BUFKIT soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees below normal. Lows Saturday night were based on a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures with values forecast to be a few degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models coming into better agreement with stacked cutoff low pressure, sitting over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday, to slowly open and move through the northeast Monday and Tuesday as stubborn Western Atlantic ridging weakens and slides SE a bit. At the surface, stacked low pressure sitting over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, with its warm front running from the Mid Atlantic and well southeast of LI, will gradually wash out as it moves east Sunday into Monday in response to the the upper level energy. With the main moisture/llj axis weakening and lifting NE of the region by Sunday, and most of the moisture relegated to the low-levels, would expected mainly drizzle or scattered light shower activity activity on Sunday into Sunday Night. For Mon/Tue, although low-levels should continue to dry, as upper trough energy moves overhead, diurnal iso-sct shower activity possible with cold pool/diurnal instability interacting with residual moisture. Thereafter, models in good agreement with deep layered ridging developing for mid to late week with region experiencing a Canadian Maritime airmass. Meanwhile, the evolution of Hurricane Matthew will be closely monitored, with forecast sensitivity tied to the evolution of upper energy as it moves offshore the east coast mid to late week, the mid to late week evolution of the trough energy coming into the West Coast this weekend, and the development of Matthew itself. Refer to the National Hurricane center forecasts for the latest information. Temps near or slightly below seasonable through the period. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The terminals will remain between high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest through Saturday. Mainly MVFR conditions this evening with some pockets of IFR in ceilings and/or visibilities. Most terminals will then prevail IFR after 00z. -SHRA will continue well into the evening, but the coverage should become scattered overnight. Flight categories improve to MVFR after 12z Saturday with -SHRA redeveloping mid to late morning. NE winds through the TAF period. Gusts 25-30 KT at city/coastal terminals and 20-25 KT at inland terminals. Highest gusts expected through this evening before diminishing overnight. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through this evening. A few gusts up to 30 kt possible through around 00z. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through this evening. A few gusts up to 30 kt possible through around 00z. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through this evening. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through this evening. Gusts may be more occasional than indicated. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through this evening. Gusts may be more occasional than indicated. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through this evening. A few gusts up to 30 kt possible through around 00z. .Outlook for 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... .Saturday afternoon...IFR/MVFR in rain. .Saturday Night-Sunday Night...MVFR or lower possible with showers. .Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR with isolated to scattered showers possible. .Wednesday...VFR. NE gusts 20-25 kt near the coast.
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&& .MARINE... Gale gusts should continue into early evening (for all but NY Harbor), so have left Gale Warning as is, expiring at 00z. Might need to extended it a few hours for ANZ-350, but confidence is not high enough to do so at this time. Gales will need to be replaced with an SCA, joining that already up for NY Harbor for tonight. Small craft gusts could last into Saturday morning for Eastern Long Island Sound, the Eastern Bays of Long Island and the Coastal Ocean Waters. Seas to at least 5 feet could linger on the coastal ocean waters through Saturday night. Sub small craft conditions expected on the remainder of the waters through Saturday night. Conditions fall below SCA levels by Sunday as easterly flow weakens and seas subside. These sub-SCA conditions are expected through early next week under a weak pressure gradient. Seas on the ocean waters likely start to increase mid week with a persistent northeast flow, but there is still some uncertainty on timing/magnitude. && .HYDROLOGY... .5 to 1 inches of rain is forecast to fall through Saturday night, with locally higher amounts possible. Little or no hydrologic impact is expected. No significant rainfall is then expected into the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Although wind fields weaken by the high tide this evening, widespread minor flooding continues to be a concern for the south shore of Nassau and Southwestern Suffolk counties where departures of 1.5-2 feet should cause minor coastal flooding. Across Lower NY Harbor, including associated tributaries in NE NJ, and the Southern Bays of Queens and Brooklyn, there is the potential for isolated minor coastal flooding, as the benchmark could be just reached with departures of around 1.5 ft expected. A coastal flood statement has been issued for these areas for this evenings high tide. Additionally, a persistent easterly sweep of 6 to 10 ft surf tonight will likely result in minor to moderate beach erosion issues at the the ocean beachfront. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ080- 179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ338. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-335-340- 345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Maloit NEAR TERM...Maloit SHORT TERM...Maloit LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...IRD MARINE...Maloit/NV HYDROLOGY...Maloit/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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