Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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862 FXUS61 KOKX 241842 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 242 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through the first half of this week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is forecast to track north and pass east of the Carolinas on Wednesday before getting kicked out to the east by an approaching cold front. The front will move through on Thursday, followed by high pressure for the end of the week. Refer to the latest National Hurricane Center advisories for the official forecast on Maria. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Another very warm day across the region with record highs being met at multiple locations, ranging from the 80s at the coast to the lower 90s across the interior. Readings were several degrees above MOS on Saturday and will continue that trend. See the climate section below for records. There is a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches through this evening due to increasing southerly swells from Maria.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... There is the potential for areas of fog to develop tonight. The NAM is very aggressive with the low-level moisture beneath the inversion, while the GFS is drier. These are typical known biases and with this being the first night of return flow conditions, prefer to only go patchy in nature. Still though, the longer days and a humid air mass could result in a more widespread event. Warm heights aloft with a anomalous upper high centered over the area will continue the string of unseasonably warm days into Monday. However, an onshore flow will knock highs down several degrees. In addition, humidity levels will creep up as well. Airmass will be too stable to support any convection. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will likely produce a high rip current risk on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The highly amplified upper air pattern across the Lower 48 begins to break down this period as the upper trough lifts out across the Northern Plains and into and into eastern Canada by Thursday. Additional Pacific shortwave energy eventually gets loaded into the backside of the trough at the end of the week. A cold front passes through the area Thursday with a reinforcing shot of cooler air on Friday and a return to seasonable temperatures, if not below by the weekend. Hurricane Maria will track slowly north through the week. The global models are in all good agreement with taking the system east of the outer banks of North Carolina Wednesday before it gets kicked out to the east by the aforementioned upper trough and associated cold front. Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast on Maria. Warm heights aloft and subsidence will result in an unseasonably warm conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. There continues to be a low chance of showers Tuesday night through Thursday as moisture works in ahead of Maria and the upper ridge break down with the approach of the upper trough and cold front. High pressure builds in for next weekend. In addition, areas of fog and lows clouds will become more likely Tuesday and Wednesday mornings due to a prolonged east flow. Northerly winds return behind the cold frontal passage on Thursday. Due to long period swells from Maria, there is likely to be a high rip current risk through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure remains across the region through the TAF period. VFR through this evening. There is the potential for MVFR/IFR outside of the city terminals late tonight into early Monday. Most terminals outside the city are forecast to develop MVFR fog overnight into early Monday morning but for KSWF and KGON, IFR is fog is forecast with KGON also having some IFR stratus. A return to VFR is expected for the non-city terminals Monday morning which will remain for all terminals during the day Monday. Winds mainly N-NE at 5-10 kt will give way to sea breezes gradually for all terminals except KSWF for the rest of the afternoon. Winds return to being light and variable under 10 kt tonight through early Monday morning and then increase to 5-10 kt out of the E-SE Monday morning into Monday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday afternoon...VFR. .Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible with areas of fog and drizzle forecast late Monday night into early Tuesday morning outside city terminals. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible with patchy fog and a low chance of showers. .Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible with isolated to scattered shower activity. .Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Long period swells are producing 5-ft swells on the outer portion of the coastal waters E of Fire Island Inlet. Expect 5+ ft swells to reach all ocean waters by late this afternoon. SCA only in effect thru Mon, but ocean swells should be with us into late week. Quite on the non-ocean waters until a cold fropa on Thu, after which a tighter pressure gradient and CAA could in winds Thursday night up to 15-20 kt with some gusts of 25-30 kt.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next week. && .CLIMATE...
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Records have been set already for September 24th high temperatures at Islip (88 as of 2PM, previous record 83 in 2009), Kennedy (91 as of 2PM, previous record 88 in 1970), and Central Park (90 as of 2PM, previous record 89 in 1959). More records could be set before the afternoon is over.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...Goodman/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JM MARINE...Goodman/Maloit HYDROLOGY...DW CLIMATE...JM

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