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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
EASTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT. THE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.

ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.

STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
 
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS VEER TO THE NW BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND INCREASE. THEN FOR
THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SOME VFR CIGS TO START...THEN
MVFR MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO BKN004 MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO BKN004 MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11AM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.

CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ335-338-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
     350.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV