Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010146 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 946 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through this evening, followed by high pressure building down from southeast Canada through Thursday. A cold front moves across the region Friday night. Weak high pressure then builds through the region on Saturday. Unsettled weather on tap for the start of the new week as low pressure slowly works through the Northeast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast is generally on track. Hourly temperatures and dewpoints needed some tweaking as they were not warm enough. Mostly sunny skies will continue into this evening. A mid level short wave trough passing through eastern Canada will send a cold front toward the area tonight. While this will be a dry frontal passage at the surface, mid-level clouds will increase overnight, resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies. Used a MOS blend for temperatures. With increasing cloud cover this results in lows generally in the low to mid 60s, about 5 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Canadian high pressure builds southeast across the area through mid week. Ridging both aloft and at the surface will produce dry, tranquil conditions through Wednesday night. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures on Wednesday will average near to slightly above normal, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to around 80 and lows falling back into the upper 50s. With the high centered well to the north, persistent easterly winds will result in increasing clouds overnight Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes will result in an onshore flow and a low level inversion over the CWA. With it being the second night with onshore flow, thinking is that low level stratus will linger over the area through at least part of the morning, if not into part of the afternoon along the coast. Not enough lift for a shower or drizzle, so will continue with a dry forecast. Have gone fairly close to superblend for high temps, but did some downward adjustments for coastal spots and upward adjustments inland. A cold front approaches on Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms north and west of the city. The front then crosses the area Friday night with the chance of showers and an evening rumble of thunder. By sunrise on Saturday, the front will probably be somewhere over the eastern zones, with just a lingering shower possible there early on. Saturday should otherwise be dry with high temps above normal. An upper trough then shifts into the region Sunday and lingers into Tuesday. Surface low pressure brings scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night. This may linger into Monday morning, but even if it doesn`t, the cyclonic flow aloft could trigger a shower or storm in spots during Monday afternoon. Tuesday so far looks to be dry for the most part, but a diurnally- driven shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the north tonight and drifts to the east Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. Winds light from the SW to light and variable. A NE flow, less than 10 KTS, develops after 06z. The winds gradually shift to the E then SE, mostly remaining 10 KTS or less, during the day Wednesday. Sea breezes are possible by late in the afternoon, however, confidence is low. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night...VFR. MVFR to IFR ceilings and possibly visibilities after 06z as stratus and fog develop along the coast. .Thursday...Early IFR/MVFR...otherwise VFR. E winds occasionally gusting to 15-20 kt along the coast and at the NYC metros. .Thursday Night...Slight chance of showers mainly after midnight inland with local MVFR conds. .Friday...Chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers/tstms with brief MVFR or lower conds. .Saturday...VFR. .Sunday...Chance of MVFR in showers.
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&& .MARINE... Light southerly winds will continue into this evening, becoming ENE by Wednesday afternoon at 10-15 kt. Sub-SCA conditions will continue from Thursday through Sunday, with seas building up to 5 ft Sunday night ahead of an approaching low pressure system. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pass through the region Thursday night through Saturday morning. In general, up to 1/4 inch QPF is possible with locally higher amounts in convection. Another round of showers will impact the region for the start of the new week. It is too soon to determine QPF amounts at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB/BC/JC NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...FEB/BC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MET MARINE...FEB/BC/JC HYDROLOGY...JC

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