Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 031931 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 331 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 19Z...CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH AND WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PER LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS ALONG WITH NARRE-TL DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY AREA THAT COULD GET A STORM THOUGH 8 PM IS ORANGE COUNTY WHERE MUCAPE`S ARE NEAR 1500 J/KG. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BASED ON NWP, LIMITED DYNAMICS (WEAK PVA) AND MODEST AT BEST INSTABILITY. LOWS ARE A MOS BLEND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE NY METRO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR FRI AS NE WIND USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. ALSO EXTENSIVE COULD COVER IS FORECAST. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY NOT BREAK 80 IN CENTRAL PARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 2 MONTHS. HAVE GONE WITH COOLER GFS MOS BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS ARE NEAR 80. CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NE FLOW PERSISTING. RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SEAS BUILD AND LONG SHORE CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH RISK LIKELY PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO OVERALL DEPICTION OF A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE US...PART OF WHICH MAY SHEAR NE DURING THE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT STRENGTH AND TIMING IS AGAIN IN QUESTION. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SAT DUE TO 5 FT EASTERLY SWELLS/WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH BERMUDA HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT LOOKING JUST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS. THE CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS THAT WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY/MID WEEK. THIS WOULD POSE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK. POTENTIAL IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RIDGING TO FLATTEN ENOUGH BY THURSDAY FOR APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CIGS FALLING TO 2-3KFT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHICH FALL BELOW 2KFT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING TO 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF SEABREEZE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF SEABREEZE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS LATE. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRING IN A NE FLOW THAT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SCA IS ISSUES FOR THE OCEAN STARTING AT 10 AM...THOUGH THE SCA CONDITION WILL SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION. && .FIRE WEATHER... SEE SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST RELATED TO GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW. FNUS51 KOKX / NYCFWFOKX && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/NV NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...BC MARINE...TONGUE/NV FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...TONGUE

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