Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 150229 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1029 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS. CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE STRATOCU MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WHERE THE SKY REMAINS CLEAR...NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND FOR THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN/AROUND NYC AND MOST COASTAL AREAS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY AND MILD CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THAT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AND BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MOST PRECIP OVER BY THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND THEN WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. USED A BLEND OF WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY BEFORE SEA BREEZES AFFECT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS EVEN WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY EVENING...VFR. .LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR...N-NW WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR...N-NW WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY...VFR. THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI WITH PRIMARILY AN OFFSHORE. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. NO PCPN IS FORECAST FROM WED-SUN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...MPS/DW SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW

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