Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010559 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 159 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LIGHT PCPN NOTED OVER EASTERN AREA...PUSHING TO THE NORTH AS WEAK VORT MAX WORKS ITS WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. WILL BE WATCHING PCPN OVER EASTERN PA AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH MORE DEFINED UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND LIKELY OVER EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING NE FLOW CONTINUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND CT. CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE, WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC, WILL KEEP THE REGION IS IFR TO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD. MARGINAL CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE TO IFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. BEING OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR THIS AFTN FOR WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING THE NY METRO. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED TSRA WILL PREVAIL FOR EASTERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCNL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .EARLY THU MORNING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. .THU...BECOMING VFR. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT. .SUN...VFR. && .MARINE... THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE ON SAT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC/MET NEAR TERM...BC/MET SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...TONGUE/NV MARINE...BC/JMC/MET HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC/MET

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