Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 210854 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 354 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the area this morning, then drifts offshore this afternoon and evening. A weak cold dissipates as it approaches tonight into Wednesday morning. A frontal boundary remains near the region into Thursday and Friday before lifting north as a warm front Friday night. Another cold front moves across the region Saturday, followed by high pressure for the end of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Quiet weather is expected during the day as an upper ridge slides across the area before shifting offshore tonight. Clear skies and generally light winds have allowed temperatures to fall into the 20s across outlying areas early this morning. These should recover quickly after sunrise, rising to around 40 by mid morning. At the same time, high clouds will begin to increase from west to east across the region in advance of a frontal system approaching from the Midwest. In addition, winds will shift to the S-SE this afternoon. This will help keep highs in the mid to upper 40s, several degrees colder than the past few days, but still slightly above normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Clouds will lower and thicken tonight in advance of the approaching warm front. With limited moisture and the best upper level support remaining well north of the area, only light rain is expected with the warm frontal passage overnight into early Wednesday morning. The best chance for any precipitation continues to be across the Lower Hudson Valley and portions of Connecticut. Clouds will linger through Wednesday morning as the front is slow to move away from the area before at least partially clearing Wednesday afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures on Wednesday should rise into the upper 50s from NYC north and west, with low to mid 50s across Long Island and coastal Connecticut. A few 60 degree readings are possible across the immediate New York City metro area. Given temperature trends over the past several days, sided with the warmer temperature guidance throughout the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build back into the region Wednesday night with dry conditions and temperatures well above normal as lows only fall into the upper 30s and 40s. The warm unseasonable temperatures continue into Thursday as westerly flow continues to pump warm air into the region. Will continue to trend warmer than MOS and model consensus blends which will likely be too cool on Thursday. Highs for Thursday will likely approach 70 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ and lower to middle 60s across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior CT. Coastal CT and Long Island will struggle to get out of the 50s with a cooler flow off the waters. See Climate section for record highs on Thursday (Feb 23rd). Unsettled weather, and cooler but still above normal temperatures return Thursday night through Saturday as the next low pressure system tracks through the Great Lakes region and its associated frontal boundary move across our region. Forecast models seem to differ on the timing of each frontal system, so do not think this entire period will be wet. The best chance of precipitation occurs Saturday into Saturday night with the main cold frontal passage. Will follow previous forecast and collaboration with neighboring offices and carry likely pops for this time frame. Drier weather returns for Sunday and Monday as high pressure returns to the region. This will also bring the return for more seasonable temperatures as highs will only reach the 40s both days. The next chance of precipitation will be on Tuesday as the next upper level shortwave approaches the region. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure over the region, moves off the northeast coast late in the day. A weak cold front dissipated as it approaches the region late tonight into Wednesday. VFR through this evening. Northeast flow less than 10 KT...light and variable outside of the NYC metro terminals...veers to southeast during the mid to late morning, then becomes s/se during the afternoon. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of winds veering from left to right of 130 magnetic may be off by 1 to 2 hrs. Winds expected to be less than 10kt. KLGA TAF Comments: NE winds under 10 kt likely through morning push. Timing of winds veering from left to right of 130 magnetic may be off by 1 to 2 hrs. Winds expected to be less than 10kt. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of winds veering from left to right of 130 magnetic may be off by 1 to 2 hrs. Winds expected to be less than 10kt. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of clouds. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Late tonight...MVFR ceilings possible in light rain. Highest prob across northern terminals. .Wednesday...MVFR possible early in the morning in light rain. Highest prob across northern terminals. Then VFR. .Thursday-Friday...MVFR, possibly lower, in stratus and fog. .Saturday...MVFR likely with showers. && .MARINE... Tranquil conditions are on tap through much of the period as high pressure builds offshore this afternoon and evening. This will result in winds generally 15 kt or less through at least Wednesday. A weak pressure gradient over the area waters Wednesday night through Friday will result in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. The next chance for SCA conditions will be Saturday as the next low pressure and associated frontal system approaches. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the upcoming week. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Thursday February 23, 2017 Central Park........70 (1985) LaGuardia...........66 (1985) Kennedy.............62 (1990) Islip...............61 (2012) Newark..............68 (1985) Bridgeport..........60 (2012) && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB/BC NEAR TERM...FEB SHORT TERM...FEB LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...NV MARINE...FEB/BC HYDROLOGY...FEB/BC CLIMATE...

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