Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 121908 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 208 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure passes to the north today moves into the Canadian Maritimes tonight into Wednesday night. High pressure builds overhead Wednesday night. An Alberta Clipper will pass through early Thursday. Developing low pressure will move up the east coast late Friday into early Saturday. High pressure builds in from the south Saturday into Sunday, followed by a low pressure system Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds back on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warm front will continue to push north through most of the area today. Rain is still likely over northern and far eastern section into early afternoon. Scattered showers otherwise ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front arrives late in the day west of the Hudson River. Winds will be gusty behind it. High temperatures today above normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... The surface low will move into northern New England and then into the Canadian Maritimes through Wednesday night as the upper level low swings through, just north of the area. Colder air will also move in behind the low. This will change rain back to snow, from northwest to southeast tonight into Wednesday morning. However, there will only be a slight chance for precipitation with no accumulation expected. As the low pulls away from the area, it will quickly intensify, allowing for a strong pressure gradient to set up. Conditions will become windy late tonight into Wednesday, with gusts by late morning into the afternoon hours of 35 to 45 mph. There may be an isolated gusts to more than 45 mph, therefore, Wind Advisory is not needed at this time. Highest winds will occur across the Twin Forks of Long Island. Strong cold air advection will continue for Wednesday. Temperatures not expected to get out of the 20s for inland areas, with highs around or just above freezing for coastal areas. Some ocean affect snow showers may find their way inland for the South Fork of Long Island late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon before ending by mid afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry, cold and windy conditions expected Wednesday night as high pressure builds overhead. Temperatures overnight on Wednesday will be in the teens inland and lower 20s along the coast. A clipper low will pass south of the area on Thursday bringing a low chance for snow showers across the area, with only light accumulations expected. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A coastal low is then expected to move up the east coast Friday night and into early Saturday. How much snow we get from this system depends on how close the low tracks near the coast. Latest model runs are not in agreement with timing or position, therefore will continue with chance pops across the area. A ridge builds in behind the coastal low Saturday into Sunday. Winds will turn to the southwest, allowing for warmer temperatures across the area for the weekend. Low pressure may impact the area later Sunday into Monday...bringing a chance for precipitation with temperatures on Monday in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front passes late this afternoon as low pressure deepens to the northeast of the area. Mainly VFR although MVFR possible at times in showers late this afternoon into the early evening. Winds shiftING to the west, except a bit later at KGON. Gusts are possible to 20 kt, then west winds increase after 00Z, 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt. Winds may veer to the west/NW this evening before settling back to the west overnight. Gusty westerly winds continue Wednesday morning. Speeds 20 to 25 kt with gusts 30 to 35 kt expected. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: West winds gust at times to 20 kt for the remainder of the afternoon. Gusts however may subside briefly before increasing after 23-00Z. KLGA TAF Comments: West winds gust at times to 20 kt for the remainder of the afternoon. Gusts however may subside briefly before increasing after 23-00Z. KEWR TAF Comments: West winds gust at times to 20 kt for the remainder of the afternoon. Gusts however may subside briefly before increasing after 23-00Z. KTEB TAF Comments: MVFR ceilings are possible at times for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds increase after 23-00Z. KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR ceilings are possible at times for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds increase after 23-00Z. KISP TAF Comments: Winds shift to the west and speeds increase this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday afternoon...VFR. W winds G30-35KT. .Wednesday night-Thursday morning...MVFR or IFR possible in snow. .Thursday afternoon-Friday...VFR. NW wind G15-25 kt into Thursday night, then winds diminish. .Friday night...MVFR or IFR possible in snow. .Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible. .Saturday night-Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SCA conditions expected over all waters today as deepening low pressure approaches from the west, increasing the pressure gradient between the low center and the high center out into the Atlantic. Cannot rule out a gale gust or two during the day, but as a front approaches, winds may temporarily diminish. By nighttime Tuesday, westerly winds pick up behind the deepening low as it passes north across New England. Waves will build over all waters. 5 to 7 ft expected over the ocean waters by the end of the day, and building to 10 to 12 ft over the ocean waters by the end of the day Wednesday. Gale Watches have been converted to Warnings as winds will gust to greater than 34 kt over all waters. Highest winds expected over the eastern ocean zone, where gusts just over 45 kt possible by late in the day today. Gale Warning for the ocean zones starting late tonight, and over all waters for Wednesday. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters Wednesday night. SCA conditions will likely continue into Thursday morning for most of area waters. Seas subside below SCA levels by Thursday night with the pressure gradient weakening and remaining below SCA conditions through the end of the week. A coastal storm may then impact the waters Friday night into Saturday with possible SCA conditions developing. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts expected. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. Gale Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/JP NEAR TERM...JC/JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...PW MARINE...JC/Fig/JP HYDROLOGY...Fig/JP EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.