Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 250301 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1101 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 09Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN. CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS LATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LATE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDOW...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC LATE TONIGHT. IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS COULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...LEADING TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY. ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. BKN VFR CIGS OVER MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INVOF NYC IS DISSIPATING..WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-18 KT LATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NW FLOW UNDER 10 KT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 10 KT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY... AND THEN BACK WSW DURING MID AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 20 KT AS THE WINDS BACK WSW. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON SUNDAY...HIGHEST NYC METRO.
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&& .MARINE...
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PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS THROUGH 09Z WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S ON OCEAN AND AROUND 20 ON NEARSHORE WATERS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVE...WITH SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL ADJUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY START A BIT EARLIER FOR ALL WATERS STARTING SAT EVENING AT MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JC NEAR TERM...BC/NV SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...BC/JC/NV HYDROLOGY...BC/JC

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