Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 310807 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 407 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front moves across the area this morning and then washes out just to the south. A second cold front moves through this evening, followed by high pressure building down from southeast Canada through Thursday. A cold front moves across the region Friday night. Weak high pressure then builds through the region on Saturday. Unsettled weather on tap for the start of the new week as low pressure slowly works through the Northeast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A weak cold front just north of the Lower Hudson Valley this morning will pass to the south of Long Island by mid morning. There is little upper support and surface high pressure remains north of the Great Lakes. Model consensus take this front just south of the area where it washes out by afternoon with seabreeze development at the coast and a thermal trough inland. An isolated shower can not be ruled out with he frontal passage, however with weak forcing and minimal instability, it seems unlikely. Another mid level short wave trough passing across eastern Canada today will send a second cold front toward the area this evening. This will be a dry frontal passage. Used a MOS blend today for highs which produces values of 75-80 at the coast, and the low to mid 80s inland. This is almost 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Cold frontal passage this evening will be dry, followed by Canadian high pressure building southeast across the area through mid week. Riding both aloft and at the surface will produce dry, tranquil conditions with lows tonight and highs on Wednesday 5-8 degrees cooler, still though slightly above normal. A subsidence inversion around 850-800 mb and daytime heating may allow for some afternoon clouds Wed as easterly winds transport moisture off the Atlantic.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure remains over eastern Canada Wednesday night through Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west as low pressure tracks across Canada. Dry weather on tap through Thursday evening, and then rain chances increase after midnight Thursday night as that cold front moves into the region. Showers taper off Saturday morning, and then weak high pressure moves across thew region Saturday afternoon and evening. Deep upper trough and low pressure then digs into the Great Lakes during the day Sunday, and then slowly works east through Monday. Whether a secondary low develops remains to be seen, but showers will overspread the region Sunday and Monday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected for the long term period, with highs generally topping off in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold front will slowly move into the area through this morning and then dissipate. High pressure will build from the NW tonight. Cold front has passed KSWF, with light W flow and VFR conds. Light SSW flow and MVFR rigs prevail east of the front, with IFR rigs at KISP. Could see a period right before fropa where other sites could also experience brief IFR rigs, then conds improve to VFR from 12Z-15Z. Winds should briefly become NW or N after fropa, then afternoon sea breezes kick in close to usual times as the front washes out. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Wednesday through Saturday... .Late tonight through Wednesday Night...VFR. .Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt. .Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conds. .Friday through Saturday...Chance of showers/tstms with brief MVFR conds.
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&& .MARINE...
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Areas of dense fog will continue across the waters this morning with particular emphasis across the eastern waters. A cold frontal passage by mid morning will bring drier air into the region and should dissipate the fog. This front however is weak and washes out in close proximity to the waters by early afternoon. Winds are forecast to remain light from the south this afternoon, then become NE late tonight into Wednesday at 10-15 kt. Sub-SCA conditions will continue from Thursday through the weekend. Seas may build to 5-7 feet for the start of the new work week as low pressure passes through the waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pass through the region Thursday night through Saturday morning. In general, up to 1/4 inch QPF is possible with locally higher amounts in convection. Another round of showers will impact the region for the start of the new week. It is too soon to determine QPF amounts at this time.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ330-340-345-350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW

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