Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 192354 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 754 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE RESULTING IN SE SURFACE FLOW. WITH THE FLOW GOING SE THIS EVENING...BELIEVE THE STRATUS EXPANDS TO THE NW. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED IN THE SIMULATED 10.3-3.9 UM NSSL ARW WRF IMAGERY AND IN THE NARRE TIME LAG. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE STRATUS...BUT BELIEVE THIS SHOULD FOCUS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE EASTERN PORTION MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WITH WATER TEMPS NEAR 70...DO NOT BELIEVE FOG IS AN ISSUE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRATUS AND ITS TIMING. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MOS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CLOUDS. THINK LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RADIATING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POSITIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SUN BY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN THE MAX TEMPS WITH NAM MOS A GOOD 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GFS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF SUN...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST. WITH OCEAN TEMPS STILL NEAR 70 THOUGH...DID NOT INCLUDE THE FOG IN THE FORECAST. WHILE SOME DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS (NAM, CMC GEM) SUGGEST MEASURABLE PCPN...MEASURABLE QPF IN THE SREF IS ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT. THUS USED SLIGHT POPS (LIGHT RAIN) FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT DID GO WITH DRIZZLE (ALL AREAS) AS NWP PROFILES SUGGEST MOISTURE TO 700 HPA AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTS. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECASTS OF THE MASS FIELDS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST THEN MOVING NE AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE APPROACHING DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL IMPACT THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS OFFSHORE LOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. ADDITIONALLY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IF ADEQUATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WEST AND NORTH OF NYC LATE IN THE DAY. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO RAIN IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AS DRYING CONTINUES. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASES A FEW KTS SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HELP BRING IN SOME LOWER MVFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND START/END TIMES WILL VARY FOR INDIVIDUAL SITES WITH OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATION BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR QUITE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: START/END TIME OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: START/END TIME OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: START/END TIME OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: START/END TIME OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: START/END TIME OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: START/END TIME OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR IN FOG/CLOUDS...POSSIBLY LOCALLY IFR AFTER 04Z WITH DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. .MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT SEAS ARE STILL AT 5 FT AT 44017 AND 44025. THUS THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL AROUND 10 PM. SE WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE TRANQUIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT. INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED AS SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TONGUE NEAR TERM...TONGUE/JMC SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...JM MARINE...GC HYDROLOGY...GC

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