Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161111 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 711 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front continues to push offshore this morning. A broad area of high pressure will build in from the west and remain in control through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Great Lakes trough will sharpen as it slides towards the east coast today. While at the surface...a cold front pushes well offshore this morning. Post frontal rain shower and sprinkles activity should gradually push east of LI/SE CT this morning. With mid/upper trough axis still to the west, and right rear quad jet entrance still working into the region expect plenty of mid and high cloud cover to stream overhead into the afternoon. Otherwise...it will feel like fall with a gusty NW caa flow between low pressure departing through the Canadian maritimes and strong high pressure building east from the central US. Peak gusts of 20 to 25 mph during the day. Highs will be slightly below seasonable with temps holding the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The shortwave trough axis approaches this evening and crosses tonight. At the surface, an associated secondary cold front moves through late today into this evening, ushering in the coldest airmass of the early fall season on gusty NW winds. Winds across outlying areas are likely to decouple late tonight, which should allow temps to radiate into the lower to mid 30s. This should allow for frost conditions late tonight across the interior of southern CT, and for the suburbs NW of NYC metro. Will issue a Frost Advisory to address hazard. Shortwave axis moves east on Tuesday, with slight mean upper troughing in its wake. At the surface, high pressure gradually builds to the south of the region. Gusty N winds in the morning will gradually weaken through the day. Despite abundant sunshine, another slightly below seasonable day with cold pool overhead. Temps likely only topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will keep the entire period dry. The only other feature passing through will be a weak and moisture-starved cold front at some point Thursday night. Each day will likely be mostly sunny with high temperatures above normal. Areas of frost are expected over parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior Southern CT Tuesday night. Frost is not expected for the remaining nights of the long term forecast. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves east of the terminals this morning with a few light showers possible through 13-14Z. Conditions will remain VFR through the period. Gusty northwest flow will prevail as the front moves east of the area. Gusts may temporarily subside in the vicinity of light showers. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday night...VFR. NW winds G20-25KT early. .Tuesday-Friday...VFR. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may be stronger than forecast. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may be stronger than forecast. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may temporarily subside in the vicinity of showers this morning. Otherwise, gusts may be stronger than forecast this afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may temporarily subside in the vicinity of showers this morning. Otherwise, gusts may be stronger than forecast this afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts may temporarily subside in the vicinity of showers this morning. Otherwise, gusts may be stronger than forecast this afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: Gusts may temporarily subside in the vicinity of showers this morning. Otherwise, gusts may be stronger than forecast this afternoon. && .MARINE... Marginal NW SCA gusts continue on the nearshore waters through the day, with SCA seas expected to continue on the ocean. Higher confidence in a period of SCA wind gusts developing across all waters this eve/night in wake of secondary cold front. Winds and seas are expected to fall below SCA levels Tue morning, and remain below criteria thru next weekend under control of high pressure. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through next weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>008. NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>070. NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MD MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

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