Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211412 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1012 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers today as a cold front gradually approaches from the west and then moves through late tonight. Deepening low pressure will track across New England into Quebec this weekend bringing windy conditions to the Tri-State. A cold front will pass through on Monday, followed by building high pressure through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warm front pressing slowly north and was located near or just north of the forecast area. Most of the fog has dissipated, with just some patchy fog left over. Mesoscale wind convergence boundary has developed off the New Jersey coastline, which extends northward into NYC. As a result, showers have developed over NYC, with some of the rain heavy at times. Not sure the band shifts east too much, and may need to improve conditions across the eastern half of the CWA, to reflect a drier forecast than previously advertised. By evening....PCPN comes back from the west as the cold front finally gets here. With this in mind, have followed the GFS MOS for temps into the lower to mid 70s - that may even be a bit low. Also, with the Cold Advection not starting until very late tonight, have gone with the warmer GFS MOS again tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Winds, cool temps, clouds and light showers make for a real fall like day on Saturday. CAA keeps temps steady of falling slightly thought the day. Showers are scattered and light...mainly in the morning. Skies become partly sunny as we downslope of the Appalachians in the AFTN. POPs go from 50 down to 30 through the day. Main story is the wind which will gust to 40 mph in the afternoon (just below advisory level of 45+. Some airports like JFK is have sustain wind speeds into the lower 30s - which is technically advisory criteria). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Global models remain very similar with the evolution of the system this weekend as a cutoff low embedded in a negatively tilted upper trough lifts northward across New England and into eastern Canada. Showers tapper off from south to north Saturday night as moisture and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west winds up to 35 mph will continue through much of Sunday with around a 980 mb low across eastern Canada. A clipper type system will be racing towards the forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning. This will allow winds to back briefly to the west-southwest. The cold frontal passage looks to be early enough in the day to not allow much of a warmup, so high temperatures are similar to Sunday, which is close to or slightly below seasonable. The airmass that builds in for the Tuesday and Wednesday time period looks to be around 10 degrees below average, and will have the potential to produce a freeze across much if not all of the interior, possibly getting into some of the coastal zones. A frontal system of Pacific origin approaches from the Great Lakes on Thursday. There are magnitude issues with how deep the low is between the 00Z GFS and ECMWF, but overall the timing with this system is remarkably close for this far out in time. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mesoscale wind convergence boundary along the immediate coastline is producing +SHRA across NYC terminals as a warm front lifts to the north through Connecticut. Meanwhile... a cold front will approach from the west and a wave of low pressure will approach from the south this afternoon. The cold front crosses tonight. On the east side of the boundary across LI at KJFK and KISP, SE winds of 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25kt. Similar winds could be expected along the immediate CT coast and impact KBDR and KHVN as well. Winds become light and variable this evening everywhere. Localized +SHRA expected to work north through NYC/NJ metro terminals into early afternoon. Re-development of IFR conditions likely for coastal terminals with low potential for LIFR or lower conds in advection fog/stratus off the ocean later today. For KEWR/KTEB/KSWF... MVFR/VFR conditions likely linger into the afternoon. +SHRA likely with a low prob of an isolated TSRA. By evening: Likely deterioration to widespread LIFR or lower conditions. SHRA likely. After midnight: Improvement to MVFR conditions with NW winds G30-35KT developing in wake of cold frontal passage. Shower likely. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs likely. Low confidence on visibility...with MVFR likely and IFR or lower possible. Later this afternoon...low potential for LIFR or lower conds in advection fog/stratus off the ocean this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs likely. Low confidence on visibility...with MVFR/VFR likely and IFR or lower possible. KEWR TAF Comments: IFR/MVFR cigs likely. Low confidence on visibility...with MVFR likely and IFR or lower possible. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is yellow...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: IFR/MVFR cigs likely. Low confidence on visibility...with MVFR likely and IFR or lower possible. KHPN TAF Comments: IFR/LIFR cigs likely. Low confidence on visibility...with IFR/LIFR likely and vLIFR possible. KISP TAF Comments: Any VFR may be temporary. This afternoon...low potential for LIFR or lower conds in advection fog/stratus off the ocean this afternoon. .Outlook for 12Z Saturday through Tuesday... .Saturday-Sunday...VFR. WNW-NW winds G25-35KT likely. .Sunday Night-Tuesday...VFR with NW winds g20-25KT possible. Isolated shower possible Sunday Night into Mon Morning. && .MARINE... Fairly tranquil today. Seas increase on the Ocean tonight. Main even is prolonged Gales this weekend as low pressure deepens to our north. Gales are likely to continue across the waters on Sunday, especially across the ocean waters. Wind gusts may briefly drop below 25 kt Sunday night before a cold frontal passage on Monday brings a return to SCA levels through Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers today and tonight. Totals should average 1/4 - 1/2". No hydrologic problems are expected. Light PCPN is expect on Saturday. Mainly dry weather is expected thereafter. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... More isolated minor coastal flooding with this afternoon`s high tide cycles. Generally 1-2 ft departures are needed for minor flooding. A statement will be issued. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tongue NEAR TERM...Tongue/DW SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...IRD MARINE...Tongue/DW HYDROLOGY...Tongue/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.