Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 240314 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1114 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND PASS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LINE SEGMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE CT/LI WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH WANING INSTABILITY EXPECTING SHRA/EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ENTERING AREAS N&W OF NYC...TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON WEAK FORCING AND DWINDLING INSTABILITY HAVE REDUCED POPS TO LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS E LI/SECT ON THU...OTHERWISE DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND BEACHES ON THURSDAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT TO THE NYC METRO AREA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 03Z...BY 10Z THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KGON. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION ENDS WEST TO EAST 05Z TO 10Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. GUSTS 15 KT TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 13Z THURSDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. .SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
FLOODING THREAT HAS ENDED WITH INSTABILITY WANING. AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH...HIGHEST EAST...POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MET MARINE...BC/FIG HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.