Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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772 FXUS61 KOKX 201952 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 252 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today, then shifts offshore tomorrow. A weak warm front approaches the region Tuesday night and moves through the area on Wednesday. The front remains near the region into Thursday and Friday before lifting north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday. Another cold front moves across the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Warming trend continues today with afternoon highs generally expected to get up into the lower and middle 50s. This is supported in the latest LAV and HRRR guidance, which are even a bit underdone. Low-level cold advection behind cold front today was overdone by models. High pressure builds in from the NW today, and it`ll be somewhat breezy due to the pressure gradient over the tri-state area. Models are in good agreement with low RH through the atmospheric column, so expect sunny conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The surface ridge axis shifts in tonight and should be right over us near daybreak. A clear sky with light to calm winds will allow for good radiational cooling conditions tonight. Most spots fall below freezing, with the exception being the city and adjacent suburbs. Lows drop to around 20 across the northern fringe zones, and into the teens for the Pine Barrens Region in eastern LI. The high shifts offshore Tuesday. The resulting onshore flow and subsidence will limit the mixing depth. After a sunny start, clouds thicken with high-based overcast conditions expected in the afternoon. With all of this considered, went closer to SuperBlend for high temps, which are cooler than MAV and NAM MOS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period period starts off somewhat unsettled as a shortwave and weak surface cold front move across the region Tuesday night. With best dynamics continuing north of the area, will continue to go with chance pops for this time frame. Temperatures remain above freezing and thermal profiles support an all liquid event, so will expecting just plain rain with this event. Tuesday night lows fall into the middle and upper 30s. Behind the shortwave passage, weak high pressure builds into the region. Heights aloft rise, allowing for a period of well above temperatures. Highs on Wednesday are forecast in the upper 50s to near 60. Slightly cooler conditions are expected across Long Island and eastern and coastal Connecticut. The warm unseasonable temperatures continue into Thursday as westerly flow continues to pump warm air into the region. Will follow previous forecast and continue to trend warmer than MOS and model consensus blends which will likely be too cool on Thursday. Highs for Thursday will likely approach 70 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ and lower to middle 60s across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior CT. Coastal CT and Long Island may struggle to get above 60 with a cooler flow off the waters. See Climate section for record highs on Thursday (Feb 23rd). Unsettled weather, and cooler but still above normal temperatures return Friday and the weekend as the next low pressure system tracks through the Great Lakes region and its associated frontal boundary move across our region. Forecast models seem to differ on the timing of each frontal system, so don`t think this entire period will be wet. Regardless, chance of showers increases Friday night into Saturday. Will continue to cap POPs at high chance. If the cold front does move through by Sunday morning, a return to more seasonable temps are expected. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the region tonight, then offshore late Tuesday. Minor updates were made to the 20Z amendments, namely to refine wind direction where possible overnight into Tuesday. Otherwise the forecast was on track. VFR through the TAF period with mainly clouds above 15,000 ft. Northwest flow through 00Z, then winds veer to the northeast overnight becoming light and variable. Southerly flow then develops late Tuesday. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20kt are possible through 01Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20kt are possible through 00Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20kt are possible through 00Z. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20kt are possible through 23Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20kt are possible through 00Z. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20kt are possible through 00Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Rest of Tuesday...VFR with southerly flow. .Wednesday...MVFR or lower at times. Light rain possible. Southwest winds. .Thursday-Friday...MVFR or lower possible with mainly southerly flow.
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&& .MARINE... Cold air advection behind a cold front passage early this morning will bring gusty conditions on the waters today with stronger gusts generally over the eastern waters. The pressure gradient will have sustained winds around 15 kt, and perhaps nearly 20 kt at times over the eastern ocean waters. Models are in agreement however that winds through the mixed layer and at the top of the layer are not very supportive of 25+ KT gusts. Thinking is that there could be occasional gusts to 25 KT, primarily over the eastern waters, but the potential occurrence and coverage do not warrant a SCA. Winds then subside through Monday night and remain light through Tuesday as a high pressure ridge shifts into the waters. A weak pressure gradient over the area waters Tuesday night through Friday will result in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. The next chance for SCA conditions will be Friday night into Saturday as the next low pressure and associated frontal system approaches. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Thursday February 23, 2017 Central Park........70 (1985) LaGuardia...........66 (1985) Kennedy.............62 (1990) Islip...............61 (2012) Newark..............68 (1985) Bridgeport..........60 (2012) && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JC/DW NEAR TERM...JC/DW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...12 MARINE...BC/JC HYDROLOGY...BC/JC CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.