Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 250024 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 722 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND MAY BRUSH NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. AT THIS TIME NEW YEARS EVE AND DAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 2330Z THE WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT TO JUST NORTH OF KLGA, TEMPS ARE NEAR 60 IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH THE LOSS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY. VISIBILITY IS LESS THAN A MILE...BUT NOT YET TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. WITH MODERATE PCPN NOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...FULLY EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER. LATEST NARRE-TL CONFIRMS THIS. WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE DENSE FOG EXPANDS WEST...THE NARRE-TL SUPPORTS SOME EXPANSION NORTH INTO CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. HAVE DROPPED THE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS ONLY SEEING ONE AREA OF LIGHTNING WITH COLD FRONTAL LINE IN WEST VIRGINA AND LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER STABLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... BASED ON LATEST NWP...HAVE MOVED UP THE ENDING OF PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST TO EARLY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUST OF 30 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH CHRISTMAS NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER EAST. THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20 TO AROUND 30 INLAND...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NWP GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET RESULTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BASED ON AGREEMENT OF GEFS WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF TREND...HAVE REPOPULATED FCST. 12Z GEM REMAINS MORE ACTIVE...BUT WAS NOT INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST BASED ON GEFS/EC SIMILARITY. THUS...FCSTING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY...THEN SEASONABLE AND DRY. DUE TO THE SHIFT IN THE NWP...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL AND WE COULD HAVE A WINDSHIELD WIPER EFFECTS IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ONLY POPS OUT SIDE OF THOSE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY ARE LATE TUESDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE SEEN IN THE ECMWF. GEFS HAS SOME MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT THIS FEATURE (NOT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS). PARALLEL GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A WEAK LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...MOS HAS TRENDED HIGHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SEEMS LOGICAL WITH TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO COASTAL CONNECTICUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL BE SLOWER WORKING INTO NJ TERMINALS...AND PERHAPS NOT INTO KSWF UNTIL JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING TONIGHT...CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM AROUND 09Z TO 13Z THURSDAY. LIFR/VLIFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/DEVELOP FOR KHPN/KLGA/KJFK AND EASTERN TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH ADVECTION FOG...CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. FOR KEWR/KTEB/KSWF...CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY REMAIN LIFR/IFR TONIGHT...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF VLIFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT AND UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW PROBABILITY OF 40 MPH GUSTS. LIGHTER WINDS FOR KEWR/KTEB/KSWF. A LOW LEVEL S/SW JET STREAM OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL CONTINUE IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT...AND THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM LIKELY TO CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z. POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WITHIN THIS...WITH LOW PROB OF ISOLATED 40+ KT GUSTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR WITH THE RAIN ENDING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. VFR ON THU...WITH 15 TO 20 KT WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS 35-40 KT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 10Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAG ON THU...GUST TO 35 KT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 10Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAG ON THU...GUST TO 35 KT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 10Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAG ON THU...GUST TO 35 KT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 10Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THU. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 10Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THU. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 11Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THU. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU NIGHT...VFR. WIND AND GUSTS DIMINISHING. .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SUN...MARGINAL VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. .MON...VFR. && .MARINE... DENSE ADVECTION FOG ON THE WATERS UNTIL JUST BEFORE MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS INCREASE ON ALL WATERS TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN EFFECT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY DEVELOPING CHRISTMAS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING. SCA GUSTS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF TO BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...AND AN ADDITION ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS IS MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LIKELY. DRY FRI-SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WELL TO OUR SOUTH LEAVING NEXT WEEK BASICALLY DRY...THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL. && .CLIMATE... RECORD MAXIMUM MINIMUMS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY... LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR NEWARK.............47/1979 BDRIDGEPORT........45/1964 CENTRAL PARK.......50/1979 LAGUARDIA..........48/1964 JFK AIRPORT........46/1987 ISLIP AIRPORT......45/1987 THESE RECORDS LIKELY WILL NOT FALL AS TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 40 DEGREES AT OR BEFORE 11:59 PM ON THE 25TH. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-078>081- 176>179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/TONGUE NEAR TERM...FIG/TONGUE SHORT TERM...FIG LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...NV MARINE...FIG/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...FIG/TONGUE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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