Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 172347 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 747 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through the weekend. As it passes east early next week, rain chances increase as low pressure and a cold front approach.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Temperatures have fallen over the past two hours faster than previously forecast with clear skies and light winds, so have updated temperatures to reflect latest trends. Noting the warm advection aloft, still feel that widespread frost is not likely overnight, thus after collaboration with surrounding offices, have decided against a Frost Advisory.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As high pressure moves in, a southwest flow will develop leading to a gradual warm up in temperatures beginning on Wednesday. Temperatures should warm to slightly above seasonable levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s with plenty of sun.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Aloft, initial weak shortwave passes with no impact on our weather. Ridge builds late this week and through the weekend. Thereafter, differences in the global models arise with regard to timing and eventual strength of upstream trough as it moves toward the east coast Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, a weak cold front passes Thursday night into early Friday. Otherwise, high pressure builds late this week, and passes off the coast this weekend. A stronger cold front approaches from the west Monday and Tuesday. Again, due to differences in the models aloft, differences are noted on progression of the front, and any associated waves of low pressure that may ride along it. Higher confidence in an increase in clouds Monday and Tuesday, along with increasing rain chances, mainly beginning Monday night into Tuesday. In the Thursday through Sunday time frame, expect abundant sunshine along with daytime highs averaging around 5-10 degrees above normal. In fact, these above normal temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday as well in spite of the increase in clouds. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure remains to the south of the region through Wednesday. Light SSW flow at city terminals overnight with light and variable winds elsewhere. Winds briefly shift to the NW in the morning and then back to the SW-SSW in the afternoon. Southerly sea breezes are possible at coastal terminals in the afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Wind direction will vary between 190-220 but stay under 10 kt this evening. KLGA TAF Comments: Wind direction will vary between 200-230 but stay under 10 kt this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: Wind direction will vary between 200-230 but stay under 10 kt this evening. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday-Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure settles just south of the coastal waters into Wednesday with sub SCA conditions. This is expected to continue through the remainder of the week. Gusts may gust close to 20 kt late Thursday/Thursday night ahead of a weak cold front. As high pressure builds Friday through Saturday before passing east Sunday, expect sub SCA conditions through the period. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through this weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$

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