Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 292010 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 410 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure build in through Tuesday night. A cold front will move across from the northwest Wednesday night, followed by high pressure through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Clear skies tonight as a drier air mass moves in on a gusty NW flow. Winds should veer N and diminish this evening, then veer NE late. There will be a wide range in low temps tonight, from the lower 70s in NYC, to 55-60 in the interior valleys and in the Long Island Pine Barrens. A high rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches via 3-4 ft very long period SE swell (13 seconds) generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Sunny skies will prevail on Tue, with temps about 5-10 degrees cooler than those of today, in the upper 70s and 80s. Mostly clear skies will also continue into Tue evening, then expect some clouds to drift in from the north as heights fall aloft and a weak mid level vort max approaches from the WNW. Lows Tue night should be a little milder as a light return S-SW flow develops, with lows 70-75 invof NYC, and in the 60s elsewhere. A high rip current risk will likely continue due to SE swells from Gaston. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday through Thursday...An amplifying upper level trough will move slowly southeast as a cold front also moves slowly southeast. In the absence of any low lvl waves of low pres along the front or interaction with moisture plumes from any tropical system, only scattered showers and TSTMs are in the forecast from 18z Wed N and W of NYC to 00z Fri across Eastern Long Island and southeast CT. Generally expecting 1/4-inch rainfall or less. Thursday Night through Sunday...will feature a slow moving dry and cool continental polar canadian air mass that will be gradually modifying as it advects slowly southeast across the area. Temperatures are forecast mainly in the 70s on Friday and Saturday with overnight lows mainly in the 50s and 60s. No rain is forecast. The tropics and subtropics are active. Monitor the evolution of all systems that will or could have at least indirect impacts on local area conditions, especially across our local Atlantic ocean coastal waters. Check web site www.nhc.noaa.gov routinely. The threat for rough surf and high risk for strong rip currents should continue through at least Wednesday due to persistent SE swells from Gaston. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build into the area through Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Northwest winds will remain just to the right of 310 magnetic through this evening. Occasional gusts to around 18 kts are possible into the evening, primarily at the city and coastal terminals. Winds will then shift to the north and then northeast overnight at 5-10 kts. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .Outlook for 18Z Tuesday through Saturday... .Tuesday-Wednesday Afternoon...VFR. .Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning...Showers/tstms possible with MVFR conditions. .Thursday Afternoon-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Combined seas via 2-3 ft wind waves and 2-3 ft long period swells generated by Gaston have increased to 3-4 ft, and will likely remain so through Tue night. NWPS and WaveWatch continue to over-predict these swells for the most part, but Hurricane WaveWatch does build swells up to 5 ft for a short time late tonight into early Tue morning, and highest swell at the offshore buoys was 4.6 ft at 44008 earlier this afternoon. With all this in mind cannot totally rule out an occasional set of 5-ft long period swells, but think combined seas of 3-4 ft should predominate, so no SCA will be issued attm. Ocean seas will remain elevated into Thursday and possibly Friday due to swells generated by Gaston. The non-ocean waters should remain rather tranquil, although it could get a little rough as some of the ocean swells make it into the extreme eastern portion of Long Island Sound, western Block Island Sound, and the entrance to NY Harbor. Thursday night through Saturday...both winds and seas will approach SCA conditions across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters with NE winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas around 5 ft. Stay tuned to the latest National Hurricane Center forecasts, as a tropical cyclone may be passing well south of Long Island off the Mid Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued SPS for elevated potential for fire growth/spread for the NYC metro area, western Long Island, and southern CT as RH has dropped to 25-35 percent and NW winds gust to 20-25 mph. These conditions should end by sunset and are not expected to repeat on Tue. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate to severe drought conditions continue. Stay tuned for the next local drought statement scheduled for September 1st. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...FEB MARINE...GC/Goodman FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...GC/Goodman

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