Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291748 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 148 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPGRADED ERN SUFFOLK COUNTY TO A HIGH RISK OF RIPS FOR TODAY. REPORTS OUT OF MONTAUK INDICATE 3-5 FT SURF WITH DANGEROUS RIPS. MODERATE RISK REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OCEANFRONT WITH MAINLY 2-4 FT WAVES. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH AND NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE PHASE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES MAINLY SKC. SOME CIRRUS ACROSS WRN NY STATE MAY GET IN LATE THIS AFTN. NLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING AROUND H85...WITH TEMPS AROUND 10C AT THIS LEVEL WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DAM. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH SAT. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 13C SAT AFTN WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE FLOW TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY HOWEVER SINCE THE OPAQUENESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS WEAK WAA OCCURRING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THU NIGHT. ONE OTHER THING THAT IS TROUBLING IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING EARLY SAT MORNING. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW...FEEL THAT THEY ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DO NOT FORESEE BKN LOW CLOUDS AROUND 12Z. DO HOWEVER FEEL THAT FEW-SCT COULD BE AROUND WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WARM...MUGGY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP THE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A MOIST S/SW FLOW WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A TROF OR WEAK WARM FRONT THAT APPROACHES SUN AND PASSES TROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DECENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT DOES NOT SUPPORT TRAINING OF CELLS...THUS ANY FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TUE AFT/EVE. AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO FEATURE MDT-HIGH CAPE...BUT WEAK SHEAR. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND LOW TO MID 80S AT THE COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS UNTIL SUNSET...WEAK SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH ACROSS NYC / LONG ISLAND / SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THIS EVENING. S WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL PREVAIL. WINDS TONIGHT...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND LAST A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. WINDS SATURDAY...INCREASING S WINDS REACHING 15-20 KT AT KJFK 18Z- 00Z...10-15 KT EVERYWHERE ELSE DURING THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG TONIGHT AT KSWF AND KGON 08Z-12Z. .NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS 09Z- 14Z SAT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS 09Z- 14Z SAT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS 09Z- 14Z SAT. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 HOURS FROM FORECAST. LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS 09Z- 14Z SAT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS 09Z- 14Z SAT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF FEW 2 THSD -3 THSD FT CLOUDS 09Z- 14Z SAT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. .WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SUB-ADVSY CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS WILL BE FEATURED FROM SAT NIGHT INTO TUE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO REACH SCA CRITERIA SUN AFT THOUGH MON MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/DW NEAR TERM...JMC/24 SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...GC MARINE...24/DW HYDROLOGY...24/DW

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