Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 011434 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1034 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AS SEEN FROM OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE BOUNDARY RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES. UPDATED WIND WITH THE HRRR WHICH SEEMED TO HANDLE THE WIND SHIFT WELL. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE...KEEPING NEARLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH FEW IF ANY CUMULUS BUILDING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS. THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE LONG TERM. FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN. WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT N/NE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT KSWF/KHPN/KGON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS RED...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE. .FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FROM LATER FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...BC MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.