Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240749 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 349 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail across the area through the first half of the week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is forecast to track north and pass east of the Carolinas on Wednesday before getting kicked out to the east by an approaching cold front. The front is forecast to move through the region Thursday, followed by high pressure for the end of the week. Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast on Maria. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Patchy fog is possible this morning with light northerly winds, clear skies, and increasing low-level moisture. The one limiting factor is a strong subsidence inversion with high pressure building aloft. Northerly winds at the top of the boundary layer may mix some of the drier air aloft down to the surface. Otherwise, another very warm day across the region with a good chance of record highs being met at multiple locations, ranging from the 80s at the coast to the lower 90s across the interior. Readings were several degrees above MOS on Saturday and will continue that trend. See the climate section below for records. There is a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches through this evening due to increasing southerly swells from Maria. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... There is the potential for areas of fog to develop tonight. The NAM is very aggressive with the low-level moisture beneath the inversion, while the GFS is drier. These are typical known biases and with this being the first night of return flow conditions, prefer to only go patchy in nature. Still though, the longer days and a humid airmass could result in a more widespread event. Warm heights aloft with a anomalous upper high centered over the area will continue the string of unseasonably warm days into Monday. However, an onshore flow will knock highs down several degrees. In addition, humidity levels will creep up as well. Airmass will be too stable to support any convection. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will likely produce a high rip current risk on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The highly amplified upper air pattern across the Lower 48 begins to break down this period as the upper trough lifts out across the Northern Plains and into and into eastern Canada by Thursday. Additional Pacific shortwave energy eventually gets loaded into the backside of the trough at the end of the week. A cold front passes through the area Thursday with a reinforcing shot of cooler air on Friday and a return to seasonable temperatures, if not below by the weekend. Hurricane Maria will track slowly north through the week. The global models are in all good agreement with taking the system east of the outer banks of North Carolina Wednesday before it gets kicked out to the east by the aforementioned upper trough and associated cold front. Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast on Maria. Warm heights aloft and subsidence will result in an unseasonably warm conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. There continues to be a low chance of showers Tuesday night through Thursday as moisture works in ahead of Maria and the upper ridge break down with the approach of the upper trough and cold front. High pressure builds in for next weekend. In addition, areas of fog and lows clouds will become more likely Tuesday and Wednesday mornings due to a prolonged east flow. Northerly winds return behind the cold frontal passage on Thursday. Due to long period swells from Maria, there is likely to be a high rip current risk through the week. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west into tonight. Highly likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance of MVFR-IFR ceilings and/or visibilities at KGON early this morning and an even lower, but non-zero chance at KISP as well early this morning. There is also a low chance for MVFR fog towards sunrise at KSWF. Light and variable winds become N-NE at under 10 kt by mid morning at all terminals except KSWF, where this should occur by early afternoon. Seabreezes are then expected at all terminals but KSWF, starting around midday at CT terminals, early afternoon KJFK/KISP and mid-late afternoon elsewhere. Light and variable winds return at all terminals late this afternoon/early this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Late Tonight-Monday...Most likely VFR. There is a low chance for MVFR-IFR conditions at eastern terminals and KSWF late tonight/early Monday morning. .Monday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower conditions and scattered showers are possible. && .MARINE... Long period swells will produce seas of at least 5 feet (initially over just southern portions) of the coastal ocean waters through at least Thursday night. (Except starting late this afternoon for the coastal ocean waters W of Fire Island Inlet). As a result now start the Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas at 20z W of Fire Island Inlet (already ongoing east of there) and have extended the headline in all 3 zones through the day on Monday. A weak pressure gradient will remain over the waters through at least Thursday, with winds around 10 kt or less through then. The pressure gradient tightens Thursday night, and when coupled with cold air advection, could result in winds Thursday night up to 15- 20kt with possibly some gusts of 25-30kt. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next week. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Sunday September 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature. Record High Temperature Forecast High Temperature ----------------------------- ------------------------- Central Park........89 (1959) 91 LaGuardia...........89 (1959) 90 Kennedy.............88 (1970) 88 Islip...............83 (2009) 85 Newark..............92 (1959) 93 Bridgeport..........87 (1959) 86 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...Maloit HYDROLOGY...DW CLIMATE...//

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