Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241618 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1118 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SE OF LI TODAY AND THEN TRACK UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SE OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE INITIAL HEAVY PRECIP BAND HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SW CT...AND NE NJ HANGING AROUND FREEZING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ONLY SPOTTY TRACE ICE AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN LI/NYC FOR A FEW SPOTS EXPECTED TO STILL HANGING AROUND FREEZING. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS SIGNALING A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING W OF THE HUDSON THIS MORNING...AND THEN STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND. THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR TRI- STATE...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS CITY/COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. SNOW COULD BE BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS BAND. SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES EAST OF THE HUDSON...STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR THIS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. IF CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLIER FOR LI...THIS WORST CASE THREAT COULD EXTEND DOWN TO LI...BUT LOW PROB. ANY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WARNING HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON ABOVE THREAT...AND WILL BE STEPPED DOWN ONCE THE BAND MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S TODAY.
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`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN. DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS. TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF TO LIGHT RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS AND LIGHT SNOW AT KSWF...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS...AND LIFR CONDS MOSTLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THESE CONDS NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE MUCH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHERLY AND THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO A LIGHT RAIN/SLEET MIX AND THEN LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A NARROW STRIPE WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES UP TO AN INCH ON RUNWAYS BEFORE ENDING...MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN CT AND CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH KISP/KGON FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL BACK NW AT OR JUST LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC...AND INCREASE TO 10-15G20-25KT THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED... ...HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT... .SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT. .MON...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. .MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS. NE-N WINDS G30-35 KT. .WED...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. && .HYDROLOGY...
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AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW. 12Z MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT. DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AND COULD LOCALLY BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR THRESHOLDS.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ007>012. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005- 006. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067- 069>075-078>081-176>179. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...DW/NV SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...GOODMAN/DS MARINE...MPS/DW/NV HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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