Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191807 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 207 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FCST ON TRACK. NICE LI SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH STRATO CU RESULTING. FEATURE IS FAIRLY STATIONARY (OR EVEN DRIFTING SOUTH). SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS THOUGH ARE SLOWLY MIXING OUT. TEMPS AT KLDJ (LINDEN) LOOK A BIT HIGH BASED COMPARED TO SURROUNDING MESONET STATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... 12Z MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LOW PRES SE OF THE CWA AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. WILL KEPT THE FCST DRY. RADIATION FOG SEEMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. S-SE SEA BREEZES ARE IN AT KJFK/KISP/KGON AS OF 17Z...AND ARE RIGHT ON DOORSTEP OF KEWR WHICH SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY BY 19Z. NE SOUND BREEZE MAY HOWEVER RETURN TO KISP BY 20Z. EASTERLY FLOW OFF LONG ISLAND SOUND HAS BEEN HANGING IN A LITTLE LONGER AT KLGA AND ALSO KBDR. THINK KBDR WILL ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SE-S BY 18Z BUT KLGA NOT UNTIL 21Z-22Z. LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THINK KISP COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE... AND KGON SHOULD DO ITS TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR VSBY. EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMD MAY BE NECESSARY LATER ON TO FINE-TUNE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERLY OCEAN SEA BREEZE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NE SOUND BREEZE MAY RETURN BY 20Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. .FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER WAVE WATCH III. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TONGUE NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE

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