Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 310242 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1042 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN NY/PA. HOWEVER...WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITING MOISTURE...PCPN IS DISSIPATING AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND NE NJ. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE POTENTIAL THROUGH 1 AM FOR THIS AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANYTHING HOLDING TOGETHER. HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT AS OF 02Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM NYC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN 40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z THURSDAY...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THURSDAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z THURSDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY. && .MARINE... WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MET MARINE...FIG/MPS HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS

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