Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 012345 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 745 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI- STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY T/TD AND SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CITY TERMINALS STILL HAVE AROUND 8-10 KT SOUTH WIND WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT. A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY AT KSWF/KHPN/KGON IN FOG. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER OR LATER THAN INDICATED IN FORECAST. WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE. .FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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