Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211625 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1225 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary southeast of Long Island for the next several days, become post-tropical on Friday if not sooner, then dissipate this weekend. Meanwhile high pressure will build to the north this weekend into early next week. Hurricane Maria is then expected to pass east of the Southeast coast and is being monitored closely for any potential impacts later next week. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose and Maria.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure will continue to build in from the north today as upper ridging is enhanced by deep troughing over the western states. Meanwhile TS Jose will remain stationary well SE of eastern Long Island. The tightest pressure gradient between Jose and the building high will reside across the Twin Forks of Long island and southeast Connecticut today, and this where gusts up to 35 mph will be possible. Cloud shield associated with Jose will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies to at least the eastern half of the region with a better chance at seeing partly cloudy skies from the city north and west. Subsidence on the back side of Jose will keep rain bands just to the east of the forecast area through this evening. High temperatures will vary, with mid and upper 70s across eastern CT and Long Island due to more extensive cloud cover. Farther west, highs will warm into the lower and mid 80s. Dangerous rip currents will continue at the ocean beaches today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Jose will begin to slowly move westward and weaken late tonight into Friday as the system gets caught in weak steering flow. The deep ridging to the west is progged to be highly anomalous so the westward motion will only bring a weakening Jose a bit closer to the southeast coast of Long Island. This could bring a few rain bands back towards the Twin Forks and southeast Connecticut. Have increased PoP to scattered/likely coverage for tonight into Fri morning our east. Thickest cloud cover and strongest wind gusts, 30-35 mph, will continue across eastern sections tonight into Friday. Otherwise, upper ridging and high pressure will remain to the north and west. Dry conditions are forecast for the western two thirds of the region. Temperatures will be above normal for much of the area, except for eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut where highs on Friday will only reach the upper 60s and lower 70s due to extensive cloud cover. Elsewhere, highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. Dangerous rip currents are likely to continue at Atlantic ocean beaches on Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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With the weakening post-tropical remnant low of Jose lingering about 200-300 miles offshore of Montauk, gusty winds and showers may still be possible across eastern Long Island and Connecticut through the weekend. Apart from eastern areas where clouds may prevail, temperatures will be closer to normal while humidity will be at comfortable levels as dry air advects southward around the west side of Jose. By early next week, the system weakens significantly and high pressure settles across the area, leading to above normal temperatures. Thereafter less confidence exists in the forecast, as the National Hurricane Center has hurricane Maria continuing northward off the southeast coast. Given the forecast path, beach hazards will likely increase once again with building surf and the possibility of dangerous rip currents well in advance. What is less certain is how much precipitation will be possible between the approaching tropical system and a trough to the west, or how strong winds will be across the area by mid to late week. Please continue to monitor National Hurricane Center forecasts regarding the track and intensity of Maria.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Tropical cyclone Jose will meander off the southern New England coast through Friday. It will push mid and upper level moisture from east to west across the eastern half of the terminal area. VFR all terminals. KGON may be in and out of MVFR for a few hours. Gusts increase today, generally 20-30 kt, with the highest across the eastern terminals. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. KHPN TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. Gusts may become occasional for a period today. KISP TAF Comments: An occasional gust may be higher than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday...VFR. N winds gusting between 20-25kt. .Saturday-Monday...VFR. && .MARINE...
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SCA conds continue for the eastern Sound/bays through tonight. SCA level gusts will also occur on the ocean waters east of Fire Island inlet through Friday. Gusts should remain below 25 kt on the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet, western LI Sound, NY Harbor, and south shore Bays. There remains a good deal of uncertainty on how high the winds will get late tonight into Friday on the waters east of Moriches Inlet. There is a small chance for a few gale force gusts, but due to uncertainty in the intensity and location of Jose, have elected to hold winds at SCA levels. Long period easterly swells will likely continue on the ocean waters into the weekend. Have extended the SCA on the ocean through Friday night and this will likely be needed for the remainder of the weekend. Although gusts near 25 kt will be possible on Saturday, winds will continue to decrease thereafter as Jose weakens and high pressure builds across the area. By next week, swells will increase once again ahead of hurricane Maria, allowing seas to build well above SCA-levels.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels through the Friday will approach or exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks for the most vulnerable locales during the times of high tide. This is due to TS Jose becoming nearly stationary a couple hundred miles SE of eastern Long Island, as Ekman forcing elevates water levels along the coast. Depending on the intensity and how close to the region Jose tracks Friday, localized moderate coastal flooding is possible along the south shore back bays of Long Island. Surf will remain rough through the week, but dune erosion is expected to localized.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ080- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/DS NEAR TERM...MD/Goodman/DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...IRD MARINE...MD/Goodman/DS HYDROLOGY...MD/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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