Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 222011 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM NEARLY STACKED THE SURFACE LOW ALSO OFF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE INCREASING POPS FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND A BLEND WAS USED.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR. EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE AIRMASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY. QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. A FEW SPOTS HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO 3 KFT. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST TIMING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER WIND GUST TIMING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WITH GALE GUSTS CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340- 345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...BC MARINE...JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

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