Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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616 FXUS61 KOKX 261129 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 729 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks off the New England coast today. Weak high pressure builds in tonight and Saturday, then retreats to the northeast as a weak wave of low pressure passes near the region Sunday into Monday. A cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday, then crosses the area Tuesday night. A series a weak waves of low pressure will result in unsettled weather for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast update to reflect just some minor adjustments based on on current radar trends and 10z temperatures. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast. Showers across the area this morning will dissipate in both coverage and intensity as both the upper and surface lows move off the New England coast today. The heaviest rain will occur across far eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut this morning with the potential for up to a quarter inch of rainfall. Much of this rain will exit the area by 8-10 am. Deep-layered cyclonic flow on the backside of departing low pressure will result in plenty of clouds and scattered showers across the region today. There should though be enough drying in a gusty west flow for some some sun this afternoon. In turn though, this could kick off some additional showers. Any precipitation should be brief. High temperatures will be near seasonable levels, ranging from the 60s across far eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Heights build aloft as the upper low moves out into the northern Atlantic. Weak high pressure builds in at the surface tonight into the first half of Saturday, then offshore with a weak return flow developing Saturday afternoon. There is a chance of showers late Saturday afternoon, mainly to the north and west of NYC as a mid level short approaches from the west. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels with clouds increasing in the afternoon due to warm advection ahead of the aforementioned mid level short wave trough. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the long term period. A weak wave of low pressure will pass south of the region Saturday night into Sunday, followed by another shortwave late Sunday night into Monday. With model differences with respect to timing and placement of these weak waves, will only go chance or slight chance POPs. The better of the two days for precipitation will be Monday. An easterly flow will result in mostly cloudy skies for much of Sunday and Monday. A broad closed low then slowly tracks from Ontario into western Quebec from Monday night through Thursday, with shortwaves rotating around the base of the low from time to time. The timing of these shortwaves is somewhat difficult this far out, but for now it appears that most energy will be focused north of the region. As a result, there is a chance of isolated to scattered showers - mainly over northern portions of the Tri-state. Also, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder Tuesday/Tuesday night with the passage of a surface cold front. The easterly flow across the region Sunday and Monday will keep temperatures below normal. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pres over srn New England will track into the Gulf of ME this aftn. MVFR or lower this mrng, then improvement to vfr is expected by 16- 19Z. Showers will decrease in coverage and intensity thru the day. Dry weather is expected tngt into Sat mrng. W to NW flow will develop in the wake of the low. This flow will continue thru the rest of the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Cigs may bounce between mvfr and ifr thru 15Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Cigs may drop blw 1000 ft at times before 15Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Some variability in cigs possible thru 15Z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Vrb cigs possible thru at 15Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Cigs may drop to 400 ft at times thru 14Z. KISP TAF Comments: Cigs may drop to 400 ft at times thru 14Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Saturday...VFR. .Saturday Night-Monday...MVFR/IFR possible in showers. E/SE winds. .Tuesday...Improving to VFR. S/SE winds. && .MARINE... West winds behind departing low pressure and a southerly swell will keep seas above 5 ft on the ocean waters through tonight. High pressure then builds across the area saturday with sub-SCA conditions. A light pressure gradient over the region Saturday night-Wednesday will result in conditions remaining below small craft advisory levels. Unsettled weather however can still be expected as a series of weak disturbances move across or near the area waters. && .HYDROLOGY... An additional quarter inch of rainfall is possible, mainly across far eastern sections of the area this morning. Another round of rain is possible from Sunday night into late Monday. At this time, it appears that average precipitation amounts will remain below a quarter of an inch. No hydrologic impact will be experienced from this system. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of high astronomical tides and a southerly swell will keep water levels within striking distance of minor coastal flood benchmarks for potentially several high tide cycles through this weekend into early next week for the more vulnerable locations. The new moon was yesterday and tide levels will gradually begin to lower this weekend. However, the swell will likely inhibit water levels from receding much in the south shore back bays of western Long Island today with a minor coastal food episode likely during the higher of the two tide cycles this evening. Thus, a coastal flood advisory has been issued for Southern Queens and Southern Nassau counties. A statement is also in effect for isolated minor coastal flooding across lower New York Harbor. Elsewhere, the coastlines adjacent to western Long Island Sound could also come close tonight, but confidence is low at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...BC/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JMC MARINE...BC/DW HYDROLOGY...BC/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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