Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190013 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 813 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the western Atlantic and extending into the region remains through the end of the week. A weak surface trough also remains inland. A warm front moves north across the area on Saturday, then a cold front approaches on Monday. High pressure builds into the area on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Convection has all but dissipated across the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm still possible for another hour or two, primarily north and west of NYC. There is really no lifting mechanism overnight, even though airmass remains unstable. In addition, have added areas of fog across SE CT and far eastern LI based on the latest guidance and what has occurred the last several nights. Elsewhere, any fog should be patchy. Warm season dense fog is difficult to get, so thinking is it should be more patchy in nature across SE CT. Often, a more easterly flow off the cooler shelf waters is needed. Winds will be S/SW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Little change is expected as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic and a surface trough remains inland. Wednesday will be a little more humid and warmer as the airmass remains in place. Convection will again be diurnally driven with the best low chance probabilities inland, and slight chances along the coastal areas. CAPE and instability will again be marginal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday through the end of the week should be relatively dry with a low threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms at times throughout this period, mainly across the interior. Temperatures will be in the low 90s Thursday and Friday with lows in the mid 70s. On Saturday, a front south of the area begins to push north bringing the threat for additional showers and thunderstorms. The front will move across the area as a warm front Sunday into Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front. Temperatures for the weekend will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low 70s. A cold front will approach on Monday then push through the area Monday night, resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Tuesday, high pressure will build in from the west with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure remains over the western Atlantic as a trough of low pressure sits over the area tonight and Wednesday. VFR conditions are expected this evening before patchy fog and stratus develops later tonight. MVFR vsby and cigs possible before daybreak but should see local conditions east of city terminals fall to IFR and below. Morning stratus and fog burns off after 13-15Z, with VFR expected during the late morning and afternoon hours outside of any showers or thunderstorms. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms NW of NYC. South winds diminish tonight to less than 5 kt. Stronger S/SW flow develops Wednesday with 10-15 kt sustained, gusting to near 20 kt. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: VFR this evening. South winds 10 to 15 kt expected Wednesday afternoon along with a few gusts to 20 kt. KLGA TAF Comments: VFR this evening. South winds 10 to 15 kt expected Wednesday afternoon along with a few gusts to 20 kt. KEWR TAF Comments: VFR this evening. Southwest winds around 10 kt expected Wednesday along with a few gusts 15 to 20 kt. KTEB TAF Comments: VFR this evening, with MVFR possible early Wednesday morning in fog. KHPN TAF Comments: VFR this evening, with MVFR or IFR possible early Wednesday morning in fog. KISP TAF Comments: VFR this evening, with MVFR or IFR possible early Wednesday morning in fog and stratus. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night...Any showers and thunderstorms diminishing in the evening. VFR. .Thursday-Friday...VFR. .Saturday...MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. .Sunday...MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... With a warm and humid airmass across the waters this evening and tonight, visibilities will lower as fog develops, especially late tonight. At this time will not bring visibilities below 1 nautical mile, however, this will be possible late overnight. Otherwise, a very weak pressure gradient force will remain over the region with high pressure across the western Atlantic. Winds and seas remain well below SCA levels through Wednesday night. Small craft advisory conditions are not expected across all area waters Thursday through the beginning of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected Thursday and through the beginning of the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/MET/DW NEAR TERM...MET/DW SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...PW MARINE...Fig/MET/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/MET

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