Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291804 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 204 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over southern Quebec will maintain a moist northeast flow off the Atlantic Ocean into the weekend as low pressure spins over the Ohio Valley. The unsettled weather may continue into Tuesday, then high pressure builds to the north for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... So much for persistence. Low stratus had "dissolved` for now over S. CT as low level moisture has lessen more than expected. Have updated based on this and have also removed the drizzle. The tri-state remains in a blocking pattern as a cutoff meanders over the Ohio Valley and high pressure at the surface over southern Quebec continues to build into the region. There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic ocean beaches - note, the issuance of the daily surf zone forecast ends tomorrow - September 30th. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Steadier rain moves in towards morning as a stalled frontal boundary well south of the region treks slowly northward and over- running increases ahead of the front. There are some spatial differences in model solutions as to the axis of heavier precipitation. Thinking is that the heavier rain will occur over southern sections as those areas will be closer to the approaching frontal boundary. With any blocking pattern comes persistence, thus we can expect with low clouds and light precipitation to continue into Friday. There will be small diurnal range in temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Locked upper level pattern remains in place to start the long term period. A cut off low over the Ohio Valley remains in place through the weekend, due to a large western Atlantic ridge. The ridge finally weakens and shifts south early next week allowing the upper low to finally start moving late Sunday night into Monday. In terms of weather for our region, expect unsettled weather through the weekend and into next week, with periods of rain or drizzle. The weather may become more showery in nature for the second half of the weekend. Some elevated weak instability could result in some thunder at times as well. High pressure starts to build into the region Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on how quickly the drier air can work in, we could see the precipitation come to an end on Tuesday. For now, with some uncertainty, will keep at least some chance pops in on Tuesday. Expect drier weather on Wednesday. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly below normal, due to the clouds, rain and easterly flow. Saturday night lows however remains slightly above normal. Temperatures Sunday through the middle of next week will see temperatures near normal. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Terminal area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest into Friday afternoon. Areas north of Long Island sound should become VFR no later than 19-20z. For now...holding onto MVFR ceilings over City terminals (except KHPN) and Long Island terminals, but could see VFR move into northern city terminals (KLGA/KTEB)...possibly even for a few hours later this afternoon. MVFR ceilings return overnight to all but KSWF and KGON where should develop Friday morning. Also slowed timing for onset of light and moderate rain by 2-3 hours at most locations. NE-E winds through the TAF period, gusting to 25-35kt at city/coastal terminals and 15-25kt at inland terminals. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. KLGA TAF Comments: A chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. KEWR TAF Comments: Low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. KTEB TAF Comments: A chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing in changes in ceilings could be off +/- 2-3 hours. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. KISP TAF Comments: Very low chance of VFR this afternoon. Peak gusts could be 5kt or so higher than those in TAFs. .Outlook for 18Z Friday through Monday... .Friday Afternoon-Saturday...IFR/MVFR in rain. NE winds g25-35 kt Friday afternoon/evening. .Saturday Night-Sunday Night...MVFR or lower possible with showers. .Monday-Tuesday...VFR with isolated to scattered showers possible.
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&& .MARINE... Northeast winds will increase somewhat this morning. Gale conditions are expected over the ocean waters, while SCA is expected elsewhere. Seas build to around 5 ft on the open portions of the Sound and up to 12 ft on the ocean through Friday. Rough conditions will continue through at least Saturday night. Conditions will then slowly improve as the gradient weakens. && .HYDROLOGY... The more significant rainfall is expect to not arrive until late Thursday night and continue into the weekend. Average rainfall totals will range between 0.75" for northwest portions of the region, to 1.5" for southeastern section. The prolonged nature of the rain event should preclude any hydrologic issues. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A persistent moderate northeast flow through Friday will keep persistent elevated water levels. Water levels across the Atlantic Ocean facing south shore bays in Nassau will reach minor tidal flooding benchmarks again tonight - a few inches higher than this morning. Latest data does not support expansion of the minor flooding on Friday - with just the bays of southern Nassau reaching minor benchmarks. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JP NEAR TERM...Tongue SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...BC/JP HYDROLOGY...BC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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