Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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343 FXUS61 KOKX 082130 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 430 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF SW TO NE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL ALLOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 6PM AS LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING THROUGH. WENT BELOW A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS OVER MANY EASTERN ZONES AS SNOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING DOWN FROM THE NORTH RESULTED IN TEMPS RUNNING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME. HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING... SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 EWR 0/1979 5 BDR *3/2015 5 NYC 2/1916 7 LGA 1/1979 8 JFK 4/1979 6 ISP *7/2015 4 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS SEVERAL WAVES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DEPART AND LOW PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST. THERE IS A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FROM SW CT THROUGH LONG ISLAND. VSBYS IN THAT BAND ARE LOWERED TO LESS THAN 1SM. OTHERWISE...CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH VFR CONDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AT KNYC TERMINALS. THE NEXT BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL WAVES OF SNOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH IT WILL NOT SNOW ALL OF THE TIME...PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME. N WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME E-NE THIS EVENING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS IN SNOW WILL BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR BY 22Z. AMDS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES. .OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. .FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...BUT OCNL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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THE LOW MOVES TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE NEARLY MAINTAINING THE SAME CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE LOOSE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING THE DAY. THIS TOO MOVES SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE TIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN IN RESPONSE TO THIS. GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK WHICH WILL LOWER BY THIS EVENING. SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NY HARBOR WHICH HAVE ALREADY LOWERED BELOW SCA CRITERIA. EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS WILL STILL HAVE SCA WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE BELOW SCA BY MIDNIGHT. THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS MUCH ABOVE SCA FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY BUT ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW SCA WIND THRESHOLDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF NYC...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRO TIDES WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LI. THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES. HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ007- 008-011-012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005- 006-009-010. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079- 081. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-081. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-075-080-178. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ074. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078- 080-177-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178- 179. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ179. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-106-108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MET NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

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