Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 151754 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1254 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region today and tonight. The high will drift offshore Monday afternoon and Monday night. A warm front approaches from the west Tuesday and slowly moves through Tuesday into Tuesday night. Low pressure and an associated cold front move through the region Wednesday. Weak high pressure builds to the west through Friday and then over the region for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The forecast is on track. Sunny conditions will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s, near or a few degrees above climatological normals. Winds will be light with high pressure building into the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Ideal radiational cooling conditions will be prevalent tonight with high pressure leading to light winds and clear skies. Lows will fall at or a few degrees below climatological normals with the exception of the Pine Barrens in eastern Long Island, where temperatures in the lower teens will be 5-15 degrees below normal. Near normal temperatures and sunny skies will continue into Monday with high pressure remaining over the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper flow has diverged from previous forecast runs and the southern stream shortwave now remains distinct from the northern stream shortwave. The southern stream wave moves to the east of the northern trough, and then tracks south of the Great Lakes and into New England Tuesday night. The northern stream shortwave then moves through the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. With ridging building ahead of the southern shortwave the eastward progression has slowed even more then previous thinking. Weak warm frontogenesis occurs late Monday night into early Tuesday. The combination results in the area now likely remaining dry through 12Z Tuesday. Model soundings are now more marginal for a prolonged or widespread freezing rain potential as warm air is expected even into the interior with the onset of likely precipitation. Have confined the chances of a wintry mix and mostly freezing rain across the more northern zones, and only to about 15Z Tuesday. With Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing into the area with high pressure off the southeastern coast Monday night into Tuesday expect a moderate rainfall late Tuesday into Tuesday night. There may be a break in the precipitation late Tuesday night into early Wednesday with another round as the northern stream shortwave moves through with surface low pressure moving across the area and then low deepening once offshore. Moisture will become more limited as the low level flow becomes more westerly. Thursday into the upcoming weekend will continue to be dry as riding builds along the east coast and surface high pressure builds to the west. Temperatures remain above seasonal normals as no arctic air intrusions are expected with southern ridging. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will build over the area through tonight. VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period, or through Monday morning. Few Cu this afternoon, otherwise clear skies expected through the remainder of the afternoon and through tonight. These clear skies continue through Monday morning. Northwest to north winds persist at around 10 KTs or less, then diminish after sunset. Light and variable winds are expected tonight, with light west/southwest winds after 14-16Z Monday, under 10 KTs. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH Friday... .Monday afternoon-Monday night...VFR. .Tuesday...VFR early, then MVFR to IFR in rain or freezing rain initially across the interior terminals. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...IFR or lower probable in rain. Conditions improving late Wednesday. .Wednesday night...VFR likely with low chance of MVFR in any residual rain. .Thursday-Friday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time. Modest northwest flow will develop this afternoon. Sustained winds will be around 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt through tonight, so no headlines are planned. Winds will decrease rapidly tonight as high pressure remains over the area. Seas through Sunday night remain 1 ft or less across the non ocean waters, and less than 3 feet across the ocean waters. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft conditions Monday night through Wednesday as high pressure moves east of the waters Monday night and low pressure moves across the waters Tuesday into Wednesday with a rather weak pressure gradient force. With increasing northwest winds behind the low Wednesday night into Thursday ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet may build to around 5 feet. Winds are expected to diminish during Thursday and by late Thursday ocean seas are expected to fall below 5 feet. && .HYDROLOGY... Tuesday through Wednesday night 3/4 to 1 inch of precipitation is likely. At this time no hydrologic impacts are expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/PW NEAR TERM...JMC/MD/MET SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...PW MARINE...JMC/Maloit/JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW

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