Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 262117
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
517 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
A cold front will move offshore this evening. High pressure will
then build in for the weekend. A cold front will approach the
area Sunday night and slowly move through Monday. This front will
dissipate over or just south of the area on Tuesday. Another cold
front moves through late Wednesday into Wednesday night with high
pressure for the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The cold front will continue to steadily track through the Tri-
State Region into the early evening. Based on radar and satellite
timing, the front should be past Montauk by 21Z. There are some
signs that the sea breeze flow will slow the front a little, so
this has been taken into account for the forecast.
Very little rain has occurred with the frontal passage, as drier
air has become entrained into the system. The best chances will be
across southeastern Connecticut and Long Island where there has
been some degree of moisture pooling.
Skies will clear tonight which is supported by the upstream
satellite picture. Temperatures were a blend of guidance which was
in good agreement.
A moderate rip current risk remains for the rest of today.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will produce fair weather. Despite the cold frontal
passage, high temperatures will be several degrees above average
with temperatures at 850 millibars around 16 to 17 C. Decoupling
at night however may allow some of the normally coldest outlying
locations to drop into the upper 50s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models continue to be in good agreement for the the long term
period. This period begins with weak surface high pressure off the
New England coast Sunday. Another sunny day for Sunday although
onshore flow will limit mixing...especially at the coast with
slightly lower max temps. Highs across urbanized NY/NY and areas N
and W should range from mid to upper 80s...with lower to mid 80s
common at the coast. Aloft, a ridge will build in while an
anticyclone is centered over the Mid-Atlantic states.
Surface cold front approaches the area late Sunday night, and slowly
moves through the region Monday as the upper level anticyclone
weakens over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast U.S. The front will be
moisture starved and looks to undergo frontolysis after it moves
through Monday night. Best chances for precipitation this week will
be with the cold fronts moving through the area, though chances
won`t be very high. The weakening cold front Monday into Tuesday
will be associated with a couple of vorticity maxes and upper level
trough. The cold front for Wednesday into Wednesday night is also
moisture starved, so the chances for precipitation will once again
not be very high. Thereafter, surface high pressure moves in through
the end of the week.
Temperatures through the week should average above normal with not
much in the way of cold air advection behind these weak fronts.
Cooler air will finally move in for Friday however, as an upper
level trough sets up over the Northeast beginning Wednesday in
association with upper level low developing over southeastern
Canada. It will also be on the humid side through much of the week,
but not oppressively so. Dew points will be in the 60s to near 70 at
times, but start to decrease on Thursday after the passage of the
second cold front, and continue to drop into the 50s on Friday with
as dry northwesterly sets up. In fact, went a couple of degrees
below guidance for Friday and Friday night in regards to dew points
as the models are probably overdoing the dew points with the
northwesterly set up.
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front moves through tonight as high pressure builds.
Skies remain clear. Wind has shifted to N-NW at all terminals,
except KGON. Gusts will end before 00Z. Winds will then continue
to veer around to the N-NE tonight at less than 10 kt at all
terminal locations. There is a good chance of a sea breeze
developing for KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON after 16z on Saturday.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.
.Outlook for 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...
.Saturday afternoon through Sunday...VFR.
.Monday into Monday Night...VFR. Potential cold frontal passage
with a few showers and thunderstorms.
.Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
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Seas on the ocean were running about 4 ft, so wavewatch has been
bumped up through this evening. Winds and seas however will remain
below small craft advisory levels through Saturday.
Sub-advy conds prevail sUNDAY through the day Monday. 5 ft seas
develop over the eastern ocean zone late in the day Tuesday. The
potential remains for increasing tropical swell on the ocean
Sunday through at least Tuesday. As a result...seas could build to
5-6 ft from late Monday through Tuesday night.
Waves come down below 5 ft for Thursday onward.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible into this evening
across Long Island and eastern Connecticut. Otherwise it will be
dry through Saturday. No significant widespread precipitation is