Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260406 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1206 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will approach tonight. The front will then move across the area on Friday, followed by high pressure this weekend. A cold front will approach early next week, and may then linger nearby until another cold front moves through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Dry conditions over the next several hours with the next chance of showers towards daybreak, mainly over the westernmost zones as a stronger mid level shortwave approaches and elevated instability increases. Activity should be isolated so will continue with a slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm for late tonight. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the middle 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Upper ridge builds this time frame, with high pressure remaining well to the south, and a weak cold front passing across the area during the day Friday. 12Z model suite seems to be in good agreement on a slightly faster cold frontal passage for western zones. What this means is lower humidity levels during the afternoon hours as winds shift to the west/northwest. In spite of hot temperatures in vicinity of NYC metro/urban NJ, slightly lower dew points will preclude 100 degree heat indices that are needed for issuance of a heat advisory. As such, no heat advisory is planned at this time. Higher humidity will occur ahead of the front, over portions of southern CT and Long Island. However, temperatures will be a tad cooler there due to southerly winds ahead of the front. As for rain, still would expect isolated to possibly scattered coverage just along the front, per high resolution models. Best chance during max heating and highest surfaced based instability would be from southern CT southwestward across NYC metro and Long Island for a time, with lowering chances as the afternoon progresses. Dry Wx Friday night as much drier air moves in and the front passes east. High temperatures Friday will range from the mid 80s along the coasts of eastern Long Island and SE CT, to the lower 90s in and around NYC metro. At night, temps should fall into the 60s and 70s across the area, still quite warm for this time of year, late summer. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models continue to be in good agreement for the the long term period. This period begins with weak surface high pressure over the region, which pushes off the New England coast Sunday. Aloft, a ridge will build in while a closed high is centered over the Mid- Atlantic states. A surface cold front approaches from the west late Sunday into Monday, slowly crossing the region late Monday into early Tuesday morning. This frontal boundary should then stall and meander over/near the area into Tuesday night before the next cold front pushes through on Wednesday. As far as temperatures are concerned, with the lack of any real strong cold air advection, it will be above normal through the period, with normal highs now in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s, with near 90 in the New York City metro area possible on Monday. Humidity levels will be on the high side, but nothing too extreme as the cold front does not make it completely through the region. Heat index values should remain below 95 through the long term. One thing to watch is the tropical disturbance currently just north of Hispaniola. If this system develops, it could get drawn up into the frontal boundary that moves through our area Wednesday, after potentially impacting the Gulf states. The operational models have this system traveling the cold front and passing south of our region late in the period. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty, and if further model runs show this cold front to be slower to move through, the area could be impacted with some rain from the system. However, it is near the end of this time frame, so for now, it is something to be watched. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front through the eastern Great Lakes will slowly track towards the region overnight, and pass through the terminals on Friday from around 17Z northwest to 22Z east. There may be a few showers late tonight after 07Z and with the front. There is a low chance of an isolated thunderstorm during Friday with the cold front passage. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be sparse with a low chance, so not included in the TAFs at this time. With a south to southwest flow tonight there is a chance of MVFR ceilings after 09Z mainly at the coastal terminals, and possible at KSWF. With the cold front passage winds shift to the northwest and a brief gust up to 20 KTS will be possible. .Outlook for 00Z Saturday through Tuesday... .Friday night...VFR. Winds northwest. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR with sea breezes. .Monday...Southwest flow. Potential cold frontal passage with a few showers and thunderstorms. .Tuesday...VFR with northwest flow. && .MARINE...
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Conditions will be just short of advisory criteria before winds and seas diminish further overnight. Winds will be relatively light ahead of a weak cold front late tonight and through Friday. A shift to the west will occur behind the front late Friday and Friday night from west to east. Rough ocean seas will subside late tonight and through Friday night. Sub-advy conds generally prevail otherwise through the day Monday. However, potential remains for long period (generally periods of 10- 18 seconds) SE tropical swell on the ocean from Sunday through at least Wednesday. Seas could build to 5-6 ft mainly Monday night through Tuesday night. Wind gusts should remain below 25 kt.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected into and through the long term period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/PW NEAR TERM...JC/DS/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MET MARINE...JC/JP/PW HYDROLOGY...JP/PW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.