Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 110556 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 155 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI- STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY. THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA AND MOVES TO OUR EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OCEAN WATERS OFF OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT SOME CLEARING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT AT NORMAL...JUST A TAD COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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COLD FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. REGION REMAINS ANOTHER DAY UNDER TROUGHING ALOFT. OVERALL...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE AFTERNOON COULD TRIGGER AN ISO DIURNAL SHOWER OR TSTM OVER MAINLY INTERIOR REGIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER HEATING/INSTABILITY SO WILL KEEP THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WILL ADMIT THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THIS COULD EXCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE ANY FORCING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT DIMINISHES QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY BUILDING IN ALOFT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE RETURNS...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING. TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SATURDAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH STABILIZING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM950-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE - WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS A RESULT...FOR NOW THINK ANY SHRA/TSTMS WILL HOLD OFF ACROSS FAR NW/ZONES UNTIL AFTER 10Z...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. COMBINATION OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH TO THE NE AND PASSING OF RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS - EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE PORTIONS OF FAR SE ZONES - MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF JET FORCING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING THEN PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH END CHANCE...AS TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS PROBLEMATIC THIS TIME OUT...PLUS MODELS HANDLING OF CLOSED LOWS CAN BE SUSPECT AT TIMES THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY NOTING THIS IS AN ACLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN GENERALLY IN WARM SECTOR - HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY (REFLECTING UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL TIMING). IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN THAT TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR INITIAL THOUGHTS ON POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND ANY IMPACTS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE NE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW...THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY SHRA/TSTMS THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ITS COLD POOL. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE NORMAL...THEN TREND TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. QUITE OF BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND TUESDAY ON AS IT DEPENDS ON EXACT TRACK/EVOLUTION OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE SE AND NW OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE AT UNDER 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND MIDDAY THEN SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND...REACHING ALL TERMINALS BUT KSWF BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .LATE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS. STRONGER TSTMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE 15 KT OR LESS FROM SATURDAY-TUESDAY...WITH SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...COUPLED WITH A POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD PRODUCE WAVES TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER MAINLY EASTERN COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL - WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH OR MORE - FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS COULD REACH AROUND 2 INCHES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME - FAVORING AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR SPECIFIC THREATS...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MALOIT NEAR TERM...JC/DW/SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...SEARS/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MALOIT

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