Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 180043 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 843 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING AND MADE JUST MADE MINOR EDITS TO THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRATUS LAYER TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREAD COASTAL AREAS. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS BACK A COUPLE HOURS AS CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THINKING IF THE CLOUD COVER OCCURS...IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. STILL UNSURE EXACTLY HOW FAR INLAND THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL GET. BUT ALSO STILL EXPECTING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SO SKY COVER FORECAST REFLECTS THAT AS WELL. STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S. FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRI. VFR TO START...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BECOMES THE CHALLENGE TONIGHT. BEFORE THE LOSS OF VIS SAT...STRATO CU OVER THE ATLANTIC WAS ERODING. SOME 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 00Z COMPARED TO SAT IMAGERY AND SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...SINCE AN ELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. QUESTION IS TIMING AND EXTENT. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS MOVES ACROSS LI AND NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. THIS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH HAVE EXTENDED THE STRATUS INTO KLGA AND INCLUDED TEMPO`S AT KEWR/KTEB WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCT OUT MID- LATE FRI MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRI. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. WIND DIRECTION MAY BE 30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST BY LATE AFTN. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRI. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR. .TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.
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&& .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER. SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071- 078>081-177-179. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GC NEAR TERM...BC/LN SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...GC AVIATION... MARINE...BC/GC HYDROLOGY...BC/GC

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