Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020531 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 131 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG EARLIER THAN PREDICTED...THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN BR AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR. LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE. .FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/NV NEAR TERM...GC/MET SHORT TERM...GC/MET LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JM MARINE...GC/MET/NV HYDROLOGY...GC/MET/NV

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