Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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675 FXUS61 KOKX 270038 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 838 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure builds farther offshore tonight as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. The front moves through the area Tuesday evening. High pressure will then briefly follow for the middle of the week. Another frontal system approaches for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Cumulus has dissipated toward sunset with the loss of heating and area was mainly clear at 23Z. Anomalously strong upper trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states pivots eastward the next couple of days with gradual height falls and increasing daytime instability. In addition, the 12Z guidance does show some mid level forcing late tonight, but the airmass is likely too dry to support rain. However, the HRRR does show one round of showers moving into NJ after 08Z. The GFS is being discounted at this time. However, there is likely going to be an increase in clouds overnight. Overnight lows will be just below normal, ranging from the mid 50s inland/Pine Barrens Region of Long Island to the mid 60s NYC metro. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Airmass gradually destabilizes on Tuesday with height falls and approaching cold front over the Great Lakes. However, dry low- levels and lack of strong surface trigger will be limiting factors for the development of showers/thunderstorms. The best chance will be across the interior during the afternoon hours. Wind shear is also weak, limiting any organization. Cold front works across the area in Tuesday evening with high pressure to follow. Daytime highs will once again be near or just below seasonable levels. There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will be in control Wednesday through Thursday night, bringing dry conditions and near normal temperatures across the area. As high pressure moves offshore, warmer temperatures and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday through Sunday. High pressure builds back on Monday, bringing more seasonable temperatures and dry conditions across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak trough of low pressure over the area will move east late tonight...followed by another one on Tuesday. VFR through the TAF period. Some guidance is indicating showers moving into the area late tonight into Tue morning. Will be monitoring trends for the next few hours and may include in the 03z amendments. S-SW winds 10-15kt will diminish this eve...becoming light and vrb outside of NYC terminals. Winds will increase 10-15kt Tue aftn with gusts in the upper teens to lower 20s...becoming W-NW around 00z as the trough pushes through. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: showers possible between 09z and 15z. Gusts may be a few kt higher than forecast Tue aftn. KLGA TAF Comments: showers possible between 09z and 15z. Gusts may be a few kt higher than forecast Tue aftn. KEWR TAF Comments: showers possible between 09z and 15z. Gusts may be a few kt higher than forecast Tue aftn. KTEB TAF Comments: showers possible between 09z and 15z. Gusts may be a few kt higher than forecast Tue aftn. KHPN TAF Comments: showers possible between 09z and 15z. Gusts may be a few kt higher than forecast Tue aftn. KISP TAF Comments: showers possible between 10z and 16z. Gusts may be later than forecast or not occur at all. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Night-Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...VFR. Chance of a late day shower/thunderstorm. .Friday and Saturday...Sub-VFR in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... With an overall weak pressure gradient remaining across the region, winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria (25kt winds, 5 ft seas) through Tuesday. Below small craft advisory conditions expected Wednesday as High pressure moves south across the area waters. Winds and seas increase, and small craft advisory conditions are possible later Thursday and into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected Wednesday through the beginning of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are still running high with a low chance of any minor coastal flooding across the south shore back bays of Nassau county with this evening high tide cycle, approximately between 10pm and 12am. The water levels would only be expected to touch the minor benchmarks few just a couple of gages so no statement has been issued. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains NY) and KHVN (New Haven CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW NEAR TERM...MET/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION... MARINE...Fig/MET/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.