Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 100105 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 805 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...AND THEN PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BANDS OF SNOW SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NJ. SUBSIDENCE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING AS THIS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HOLD IN TACT. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER LIFT. HOWEVER...LATEST MESOSCALE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA ARE TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH MUCH OF THE BEST BANDING POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH. 18Z GFS HAS SHIFTED ITS HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL HAS A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX AT H5 SWINGING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SNOWFALL IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY. THE 18Z 12-KM NAM HAS THIS VORT MAX A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THE 18Z HIRES NAM SHOWS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS AROUND DAY BREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE H5 VORT MAX IS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS ONLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE. WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT. DO NOT WANT TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE IF SNOW BANDS ARE TO DEVELOP. THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDELY VARIABLE...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY NOT GETTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. IT IS ALL GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BANDS SET UP. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 40 IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT -25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN. AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT...MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SNOW BECOMES STEADY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR IN HEAVIER BANDS. THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NYC AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WINDS E AROUND 5 KT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 00Z. STEADIER SNOW AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY BE LATER THAN FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 00Z. STEADIER SNOW AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY BE LATER THAN FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADIER SNOW AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LATER THAN FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADIER SNOW AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LATER THAN FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT BEFORE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN AFTER 02Z...POSSIBLY LATER. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS 2000 TO 2500 FT BEFORE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN AFTER 03Z...POSSIBLY LATER. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN... .WED NIGHT...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT. .THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT. .FRI...VFR. .SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT. && .MARINE... FORECAST ON THE WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SCA CONDS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL HOIST SCA FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU WITH A STRONG NW GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NY HARBOR...COASTAL NE NJ AND WESTERN LI SOUND WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AND LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. SURGE LOWERS FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS HIGH TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI. SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SO BEACH IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED. HERE ARE THE RECORDS: STATION.........RECORD MINIMUM.............RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14 NYC.................2 (1916)....................17 (1979).... LGA.................1 (1979)....................15 (1979).... JFK.................4 (1979)....................17 (1979).... ISP.................7 (2015)....................26 (1987).... EWR.................0 (1979)....................15 (1979).... BDR.................3 (2015*)...................18 (1979).... *IN 1979 AS WELL && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ078>081-177-179. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-176-178. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ074- 075-080-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-078- 177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ006- 106-108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...MPS/DS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...MET MARINE...MPS/DS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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