Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281739 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 139 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85 COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT...SUBSIDES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE... .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. && .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING SURF AT GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS WILL BE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TONIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/NV NEAR TERM...JMC/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JM MARINE...DS/NV HYDROLOGY...DS/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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