Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230451 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1151 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure north of the region tonight will slides east early Friday morning. Another wave of low pressure moves across the region Friday and Friday night. A warm front moves north Saturday night into Sunday, and a cold front passes late Sunday. High pressure builds early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Any pcpn has ended across the region. The fcst has been updated accordingly. The clearing line was invof the Mass Pike. With wly flow progged at the 6k ft moist layer, and moist enely flow at the llvls, mainly ovc skies are expected for most of the ngt. If the cloud cover erosion bleeds swd into the cwa, this gradient zone will be a prime spot for fzfg. Temps will fall into the upper 20s and lower to mid 30s. The storm total rainfall graphic has been updated to represent pcpn expected Fri. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Next focus of attention is another wave of low pressure which moves across the region Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Precipitation spreads from west to east Friday morning, with all areas seeing PCPN during the afternoon. 12Z Thermal profiles support rain for the most part, however there is a chance that western Orange County can pick up a couple hours of freezing rain. A lot of this will depend on the timing of the precipitation moving into the area. If the precip moves in slightly faster than forecast, there will be a greater threat for freezing rain. If the precipitation holds off til mid to late morning, there is a chance that surface temperatures could reach freezing, lowering the threat of freezing rain. Right now do not have the confidence and coverage to go with an advisory, and will let subsequent shifts assess trends and issue any as needed. Temperatures are then forecast to warm enough for all rain by afternoon. Rain continues in the evening, with drier weather expected for Friday night. With a frontal boundary remaining near the region Friday night, will leave at least a slight chance of rain showers in the forecast, along with the potential for some patchy fog. Highs on Friday climb into the upper 30s and lower to mid 40s, with temperatures only falling a few degrees for Friday nights lows. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front moves north toward the area Saturday night into Sunday. Showers are possible during the day on Saturday with temperatures in the low 50s. Low pressure will track northeastward across the upper Great Lakes on Sunday while its associated cold front is expected to move through the area on Sunday. This will result in rain chances across the entire region with less than three quarters of an inch of precipitation. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure then builds Monday through Wednesday, with dry conditions expected through the middle of the week. A low pressure system approaches the area Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lows in the low to mid 30s Monday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Strong high pressure builds to the north, then shifts off the Northeast coast on Friday as another wave of low pressure approaches from the west. Mainly MVFR conditions expected overnight, with occasional IFR possible at KJFK, KLGA and KISP. The timing of the redevelopment of IFR conditions is less certain elsewhere, but ceilings will gradually lower through the morning. IFR then becomes likely at all terminals by late Friday morning as light rain moves back into the region, with light freezing rain beginning at KSWF. Conditions then deteriorate further through the day with IFR-LIFR prevailing in rain. A brief period of LLWS will be possible Friday night. NE-E wind 10 kt or less tonight becoming E to SE Friday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Sat...CHC MVFR and rain. .Sun...MVFR/IFR in rain. S winds G20 KT. .Mon...VFR. W winds G20 KT. .Tuesday...VFR. WNW winds G20 KT.
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&& .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean waters through Friday morning as easterly winds gust around 25 kt while building seas up to 5-6 feet. Rest of the water should remain below advisory criteria. Winds and seas fall below SCA criteria Friday afternoon and remain that way through Friday night. Tranquil winds and seas are forecast Saturday. Easterly winds increase Saturday night ahead of the warm front and low pressure center. A period of small craft advisory condition winds and rough ocean seas are possible during this time. The winds shift around to the west behind the front Sunday night and Monday. Rough ocean seas will gradually subside as high pressure builds across the area waters on Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week with rainfall amounts generally ranging from a half an inch to three quarters of an inch. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Fig NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/PW SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...MD/19 MARINE...BC/Fig HYDROLOGY...BC/Fig EQUIPMENT...

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