Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260525 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1225 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers end as a cold front moves off the coast. Cool high pressure then builds south of the area through Monday. A slow moving warm front will approach from Monday night into Tuesday night, the lift north on Wednesday. Low pressure passing to the north will drag a trailing cold front through late Wednesday night or early Thursday. Another cold front will pass through on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A few showers left over mainly over Long Island through 7Z. Otherwise, northwest winds usher in a more seasonal airmass overnight. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Seasonable weather returns for Sunday. NW winds gust up to 30 mph through the day and then diminish at night. With clear skies and light winds, expect decent radiational cooling Sunday night. Temperature guidance remains consistent and was accepted. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NWP guidance fairly close through the period, though did side with slower NAM at first with approaching weak mid level shortwave moving through a flat upper longwave ridge. After that, went with a 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS blend, with increasing chances of rain in large scale WAA, and likelihood of rain Tue night through Wed night ahead low pressure passing to the north and an approaching trailing cold front. As mild/humid air streams northward with dewpoints in the 50s, fog likely Wed night that could be dense along the coast. Cold fropa late Wed night could be accompanied by brief heavier showers. After cold fropa on Thu, drier/colder air will arrive on a gusty W then NW flow, with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible especially NYC metro and coastal sections. Another cold frontal passage expected late Friday, and kept fcst dry but did increase clouds with its approach/passage. Temps should remain on the mild side through Thu, with at least 50s each day and lower 60s for NYC metro/NE NJ on Wed. Much colder for Thu night and beyond, with lows in the lower 30s NYC metro and 20s elsewhere Thu night and Sat night, and even colder Fri night, with teens and 20s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west today. VFR through the TAF period, although ceilings could develop around 3500 feet during the day. West northwest winds through 00Z, then the flow will back slightly to the west and lighten significantly. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Tonight-Monday evening...VFR. W-SW winds G15-20KT Monday. .Late Monday night-Wednesday...Chance of MVFR or lower at times with rain. S-SW winds G15-20 KT along coast Wednesday. .Wednesday night...Areas of fog and rain. IFR or below. SW winds G15- 25KT along coast. .Thursday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers. SW-W winds G20- 30KT Thursday. && .MARINE... Small craft advisory (SCA) on the coastal waters for through the day on Sunday in the wake of a cold frontal passage this evening. SCA conditions will linger through Sunday night on the Ocean waters as winds slowly subside, but seas will remain at or above the 5 FT criteria. Mon into Mon Eve: SCA for the eastern ocean waters via favorable WSW fetch of 15-20 kt wind on northern periphery of offshore high pressure. Wed afternoon/night: SCA conds on the ocean waters via increasing S- SW flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Dense fog likely to develop as very moist air moves over the colder waters. Thu into Thu night: Cold fropa followed by W-NW gales on the ocean and SCA conds elsewhere. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall of 1/2 to 3/4 inch possible from Tue night into Thu morning. No hydrologic issues expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/Tongue NEAR TERM...12/Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...12 MARINE...Goodman/Tongue HYDROLOGY...Goodman/Tongue is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.