Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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645 FXUS61 KOKX 240608 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 208 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly approach and move across this morning into the afternoon. A secondary cold front moves across tonight. High pressure builds to our southwest Sunday into Monday. A weak cold front will move through our area later Monday. High pressure builds towards the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving offshore Thursday. Unsettled weather return for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Will monitor upstream showers/tstms, and with increasing coverage across our area this morning. Primary threat will be localized flash flooding in a very tropical air mass as the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy move northeastward along an approaching cold front. In addition, increasing low level jet and potential backing of low level winds ahead of remnant low could aid stronger storm development early this morning. Lows were a blend of NAM12/GMOS and adjusted slightly higher. Boundary layer moistens with patchy fog developing, especially in areas that are outside the rain showers. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Starting out Saturday morning, the remnant low of Cindy with the showers and thunderstorms will be near to just southwest of the region. Heavy rain threat remains early in the morning with patchy fog early especially in areas outside of rain showers. It moves south of Long Island this afternoon as the cold front moves across. The showers and thunderstorms move offshore in the afternoon as winds become more westerly. Depending on how fast clouds decrease, the surface temperatures could warm up quickly. Expecting an above normal day regarding temperatures with boundary layer mixing giving highs mid to upper 80s most places with some lower 90s in Northeast NJ using GMOS with slight adjustments. For Saturday night, a secondary cold front moves across which will result in winds becoming more northerly late Saturday night after its passage. Dry conditions, light winds and continued mostly clear conditions will result in radiational cooling. A vast range of lows will be seen in the region from upper 50s in rural inland sections to lower 70s in parts of NYC from the MET guidance. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry conditions expected on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds towards the Mid Atlantic coast. Expect high temperatures to be in the low to mid 80s on Sunday. A weak surface cold front will affect the local area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The system will not have a great deal of moisture associated with it, but cooler temperatures aloft may spark off a shower or t-storm late Monday into early Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure continues to build towards the area on Wednesday and slowly moves offshore on Friday. A few showers are possible Friday afternoon. Temperatures will start out in the upper 70s to near 80 on Wednesday then slowly increase to mid to upper 80s by Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Ahead of an approaching cold front widespread showers becoming more likely approaching the 8-10z timeframe for the terminals. Embedded thunder possible (best chance for KEWR) but left out of the TAFS for now. The main concern with any heavier showers early this morning is for locally heavy rain which can lower visibilities down to IFR for a few hours, with the best window for this from 10 to 14z. Front timing appears to be sped up a bit, so heavier showers could move out an hour or so faster than indicated in TAFS for the late morning. Winds will switch to west with frontal passage which should be around 14z for city terminals. VFR for the remainder of the TAF period after front passes. For a brief time for the late morning and early afternoon winds may go closer to just north of west (close to 300 or 310 magnetic). Winds gust to around 20 KT for city terminals until 22z or thereabout. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday night-Sunday Night...VFR. NW wind early Saturday night, otherwise West wind through Sunday night. .Monday-Tuesday...VFR. A slight chance of shra/tsra Monday afternoon, and a chance of shra/tsra on Tuesday. .Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Conditions on the waters are becoming more rough. Sub SCA winds on non-ocean waters are expected through Saturday night. Ocean stays in SCA through much of Saturday night. Less SCA winds Saturday night with an overall weak pressure gradient with residual higher seas. Conditions across the area waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... The potential for minor urban and poor drainage flooding with localized possible flash flooding will remain with the showers and thunderstorms forecast this morning. Total rain expected is 0.5 to 1 inch with locally higher amounts. The precipitable waters increase to near 2.3 to 2.4 inches with tropical moisture from the remnants of Cindy getting entrained along the front. There is a threat for flash flooding through 14-16Z from complex of showers and thunderstorm associated with a frontal wave (remnants of Cindy) moving through the areas. Will monitor as morning progresses. There are no hydrologic impacts expected Sunday and through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the evening high tide cycles. Less than 1 ft of surge is needed during these evening high tide cycles for minor flooding, and in some cases less then 1/2 ft. The expected S/SW flow is not favorable for surge, but a background anomaly will likely be enough for minor coastal flooding of the most vulnerable coastal locales along the south shore bays of Western Long Island, along Jamaica Bay, and along western Long Island Sound during this time. && .EQUIPMENT... KOKX weather radar is scheduled for maintenance starting today June 23rd for a period of 3 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/JM NEAR TERM...JMC/MD/JM/PW SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...MD/JE MARINE...Fig/JM/PW HYDROLOGY...Fig/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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