Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221652 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1252 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY WITH CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD BUILDUP WE HAVE SEEN IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION. LEFT HIGH TEMP FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. HIGHS AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS. EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW. MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS. .WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT. .THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.
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&& .MARINE...
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OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT GUST FREQUENCY AND ITS COVERAGE ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCA IN ANY OF THESE OTHER ZONES. SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/LN NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN SHORT TERM...LN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MPS/NV MARINE...BC/LN HYDROLOGY...LN

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