Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 031141 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 741 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW TONIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR UPDATES TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE MODERATE RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH ONLY LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE CLOUDY RAINY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. SOME LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR 50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN US AND ERN PAC...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EWD WITH A SPLIT FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT CONSOLIDATES WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF TRACKS TO THE E COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP THE ERN SEABOARD...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME IDEA...THERE ARE MAINLY TIMING...BUT SLIGHT STRENGTH ISSUES. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THU WILL BE TOO BAD AS ONCE WAVE DEPARTS AND THE NEXT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY. THE 03/00Z EC LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WITH THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN. DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT...ALTHOUGH AN UPSTREAM KICKER DIVING OUT OF CANADA ON SAT SHOULD HELP. SCHC POPS SAT DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG ISLAND INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND MID MORNING AT CITY TERMINALS...AND EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. FOR NOW MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KHPN/KGON WHERE IFR SHOULD RETURN AROUND 6-7Z. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. NOTE...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...AND THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS CATEGORIES - RANGING FROM LIFR TO MVFR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IN CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY BEYOND THOSE INDICATED IN TAFS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AT LESS THAN 10 KT BY 11-13Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AT LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT AT CITY AND CT TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABILITY IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE... CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE SEAS BRIEFLY TOUCH 5 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF SEAS REACH 5 FT...THEY MAY LINGER ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. OTHER THAN A LOW CHANCE OF 5 FT SEAS EARLY ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SCA POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR SCA WINDS ON THE OCEAN FRI...BUT MORE LIKELY SEAS...CONTINUING INTO SAT. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE INCH ARE LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND THE LOWER END BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE OF ANY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/24 NEAR TERM...BC/24 SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...BC/24 HYDROLOGY...BC/24 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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