Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281800 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE AREA GOING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST UPDATE...CONDITIONS STILL SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL NJ...MAKINGS ITS WAY TOWARDS NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC. IF WE GET ANY CLEARING TEMPERATURES MAY QUICKLY SPIKE UPWARDS THERE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST. AFTER AN ISO/SCT SHOWER/TSTM THIS EVENING...DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ZONAL DURING MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED...CONFINED MAINLY WITHIN A 100MB DEPTH CENTERED NEAR 850MB. WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION RIGHT ABOVE THIS...THINKING IS THAT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS VERY LIMITED AND WE THEREFORE LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. MOISTURE THEN INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD GET THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHOUT ANY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TUESDAY... WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER LOW CENTER WITH A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER. WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... HAVE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINISHES LIFTING TO THE NE AND THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND A BIT STRONGER FOR THE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC/00Z ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST THINGS BEING DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING INTERACTION BETWEEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN TROUGH AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS GENERALLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS THURSDAY NIGHT - CHANCE FAR SW - THEN CHANCE W/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E ON FRIDAY. GIVEN SLOWER TIMING OF NON-12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS...DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THROUGHOUT THE CWA. FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH VALUES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE N AND NW...BUT ONLY AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE KLGA/KJFK. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. AS A RESULT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART...AND IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO TERMINALS AWAY FROM KNYC TONIGHT. WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AT KLGA/KJFK...CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THERE. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT BY THEN. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS...TURNING TO THE SOUTH LATE. .TUESDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS IN SHRA WITH SCT TSRA. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.
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&& .MARINE... SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WITH JUST A FEW GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA ON THE SOUND THIS MORNING. SW WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SCA WINDS GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND PERHAPS EASTERN LI SOUND. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON NEARSHORE WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SE/S SWELLS...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. SCA SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES INTO MON NIGHT. GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS ARE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THEN SCA LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AND GIVEN EXPECTED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...BC/JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...JC/MALOIT AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...BC/JC/MALOIT

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