Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 212347 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 747 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves across the region tonight. Deepening low pressure will track across New England into Quebec this weekend bringing windy conditions to the Tri-State. Another cold front will move southeast across the area early Monday followed by Canadian high pressure through Wednesday. Low pressure will move slowly east toward the area Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Area of moisture convergence coincident with high PWATs and some elevated CAPE that produced locally heavy rainfall over the Forks region and New London County will be shifting out the area over the next hour or two. The CWA will then be in a relatively quiet period for the rest of the evening. For the overnight hours, a cold front continues to advance east across the forecast area. Still, some decent moisture convergence progged by the models over the Hudson Valley and immediate adjacent areas. At the same time, mid level lift increases as a shortwave/upper trough axis moves in, and synoptic lift gets enhanced as a jet streak begins to shift through the region. Therefore expecting showers to become more numerous after midnight, affecting primarily around the city and areas north and west of it. Forecast grids have been modified to reflect this thinking. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... It will feel fall like with winds, cool temperatures, clouds and light showers Saturday and Saturday night. Cold Air Advection keeps temperatures steady or slightly fall through the day. Showers will taper off in intensity though the day, becoming scattered and light...mainly in the morning. Thinking that skies will remain mostly cloudy through the day as the upper level low moves over the region. The main forecast impact will be the wind which will gust to 40 mph in the afternoon and early evening. This is just below wind advisory criteria. A few locations may even see sustained winds or gusts meet advisory criteria. However, with low confidence will hold off on any headlines. Any left over showers tapper off from south to north Saturday night as moisture and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west winds up to 35 mph will continue Saturday night as the low slowly lifts to the north. Temperatures on Saturday only reach the 50s, with Saturday night lows falling into the upper 30s and 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mean positions of upper level trough will remain across the Northeast with a high amplitude ridge across the Central U.S. This will lead to temperatures averaging below normal through the period. Sunday...Strong W-NW winds will persist at 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph as day time highs approach 60 degrees. Sunday Night...Next chance of showers as a digging upper level short wave re-reinforces the cool air in place. Monday through Wed will be quite cool as a building canadian high pressure system moves east across New England, bringing overnight low temps into the 30s across most of the local area, even across parts of NYC on Tuesday night. Grab those jackets. Thu-Fri will bring our next chance of rain as low lvl warm air advection increases between the departing Canadian high and a low approaching across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will approach from the west as a wave of low pressure approaches from the south tonight. The cold front crosses the NYC terminals after 06z. S-SE winds become light and variable this evening and the first part of tonight. Re-development of IFR conditions likely for coastal terminals with low potential for LIFR or lower conds in advection fog/stratus off the ocean later this evening. Overnight conditions likely deterioration to widespread LIFR or lower conditions but mainly before 08z. After 08z: Improvement to MVFR conditions with NW winds G30-35KT developing in wake of cold frontal passage. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Temporary MVFR/VFR possible before IFR and possible LIFR re-develop. KLGA TAF Comments: Temporary MVFR/VFR possible before IFR and possible LIFR re-develop. KEWR TAF Comments: Temporary MVFR/VFR possible before IFR and possible LIFR re-develop. KTEB TAF Comments: Temporary MVFR/VFR possible before IFR and possible LIFR re-develop. KHPN TAF Comments: CIG amendments likely. KISP TAF Comments: CIG amendments likely. .Outlook for 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... .Saturday-Sunday...VFR. WNW-NW winds G25-35KT likely. .Sunday Night-Tuesday...VFR with NW winds g20-25KT possible. Isolated shower possible Sunday Night into Mon Morning. .Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory for seas is in effect tonight for the ocean waters as seas build to 5 to 6 ft. The main marine event starts Saturday as winds increase to gale force and continue through Saturday night as low pressure deepens to our north. Gales are forecast to continue through the day Sunday. Wind gusts may briefly drop below 25 kt Sunday night before a cold front passes early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 25-30kt are likely Monday through Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to decrease on Wednesday as high pressure moves across the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Additional rainfall tonight through Saturday afternoon is expected to be in the range of a quarter to three quarters of an inch. The highest amounts will be generally over the Husdon Valley. Not expecting hydrologic impacts outside of residual flooding early this evening over New London County. Sunday night...scattered showers with rainfall of less than one tenth of an inch is forecast with the passage of a cold front. Thursday through Friday...A widespread rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch is possible with the approach of low pressure from the Great Lakes. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GC NEAR TERM...BC/JC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...IRD/Goodman MARINE...BC/GC HYDROLOGY...BC/GC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.