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000
FXUS61 KOKX 192000
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal passage will occur tonight. High pressure will
dominate from Friday night through Monday, moving offshore
Sunday through Monday. A slow moving frontal system will then
approach the area Tuesday into Tuesday night with a cold
frontal passage by early Wednesday. The front is slow to depart
farther away with a wave of low pressure developing along it and
approaching the area mid into late next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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An upper level system will track across Hudson Bay, into
northern Quebec tonight. This will drag a cold front across the
forecast area late tonight. There is very little moisture to
work with so the frontal passage will be dry. Winds will
gradually shift from the Southwest to the Northwest overnight.
Lows tonight fall into the 40s and 50s. A MAV/MET/ECS blend was
in good agreement and used.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure builds back into the region behind the cold
front. Winds will remain from the Northwest and gust into the
upper teens and lower 20s. There is a chance that gusts could be
slightly higher than forecast based on the amount of mixing
that occurs. Conditions remain dry. Winds gradually diminish
overnight, becoming light and variable across the interior.

Max temperatures will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Friday, with lows Friday night falling into the 40s and 50s. A
MAV/MET/ECS blend was used for the short term temperatures.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Warming trend for the weekend through Monday as the jet stream
remains north of the region with upper level ridging. At this
surface, the dominant feature will be high pressure eventually
moving offshore and the resulting S-SW flow. Mainly clear sky
conditions are expected to continue this weekend.

Clouds increase Monday into Monday night ahead of the next
frontal system. The next chance of rain showers arrives late
Monday night into Tuesday, when a deep upper level trough
approaches from the west.

The trough further deepens Tuesday along the Eastern Seaboard
with increasing meridional flow. This will give plentiful
moisture to a developing frontal system at the surface. The
frontal system will be approaching the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night with the region being in the warm sector to the
east of the low with strengthening southerly flow, thereby
increasing warm air advection. Precipitable water increases to
near 1.5 inches from the moisture advection. This is much above
normal for this time of year. According to OKX sounding
climatology, it would be above the 90th percentile. Some
moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible.

The cold front moves across Wednesday morning, with a
substantial decrease in precipitable water thereafter to less
than 1 inch. The front slows down and is slow to depart away
from the region. The numerical forecast models show weak low
pressure development along it and the low approaching the region
mid into late next week, with rain shower chances continuing.

Temperatures are expected to be well above normal this weekend
through Tuesday with a gradual decline thereafter. Highs this
weekend through Tuesday are forecast to be well into the 70s
with lows trending to be well into the 50s and near 60 for some
locations along the coast and NYC. The highs are forecast to be
more in the 60s for next Wednesday and next Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains across the mid Atlantic states into
tonight as low pressure tracks through eastern Canada. A weak
cold front, associated with the low, moves across the terminals
late tonight dry. High pressure builds to the west during
Friday.

Winds SW to SSW around 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt
diminish early this evening. Winds veering to W to WNW less than
10 kt. Winds will be right around 310 true during friday, around
10 kt with frequent gusts up to 20 kt.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday afternoon-Friday night...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT into the
evening.
.Saturday-Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR possible in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
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A quick round of marginal small craft advisory level winds and
seas are expected this evening and overnight on the eastern and
central ocean waters. Elsewhere, winds and seas will generally
be below small craft advisory levels through Friday night. There
could be some nearshore gusts approaching 25 kt Friday
afternoon on northwest flow.

With high pressure dominating, expecting overall a weak enough
pressure gradient to keep conditions below SCA this weekend
through Monday night on the waters. SCA will be probable for
Tuesday ahead of a cold front as southerly winds strength the
southerly fetch. Both wind gusts and seas are forecast to meet
SCA thresholds.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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A special weather statement remains posted for interior
Connecticut for enhanced fire weather spread this evening. After
a wind shift tonight, an elevated fire weather risk is again
likely on Friday. In fact, relative humidity is likely to be
lower on Friday. An SPS will be issued for the entire CWA later
this evening.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic problems are expected through Monday night. For
Tuesday through early Wednesday, heavy rain will be possible at
times with potential areas of 1 inch or higher. There is much
uncertainty with exact rainfall amounts. Urban and poor drainage
flooding will be possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...BC
HYDROLOGY...JM