-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 061054
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
554 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY....THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS FLORIDA AND CONTINUE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK PASSING WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDS AND TRENDS.

A SPLIT H5 FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS EASTERN
NOAM. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS COURTESY OF STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL LEND TO A DRY
BUT CHILLY DAY AHEAD.

AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING...CAA WILL WANE WITH WEAK WAA
COMMENCING THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -10C
DURING PEAK HEATING. AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND...N WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE NE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH DEPARTS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE
WITH ANOTHER DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT. WITH THE FLOW BCMG ELY...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STRATUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS TODAY AS THIS MAY IMPACT US TONIGHT POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BUSTED LOW TEMPS IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND TRACK NE PASSING WELL S OF THE AREA
FRI NIGHT DUE TO A FLAT DOWNSTREAM FLOW.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD DOES COME CLOSE TO LONG
ISLAND FRI AFTN...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS US DRY.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND OR A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE DUE TO WAA. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND WILL RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS. ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT THE EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT THIS FORECAST. THE WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON FRI WITH
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE N CAROLINA
COAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INITIAL FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
TRACKING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...BEFORE PIVOTING NE OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. SIMILARLY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ALONG THE SE US COAST TONIGHT
AND THEN TRACKING NE ON FRI...A BIT SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY
LATE FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT EXAMINATION OF SREF/GEFS
AND LATEST ECMWF JUSTIFIES A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE PRECIP SHIELD GRAZING THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE ABUNDANT CONVECTION IN THE GULF AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING...A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY COLD...LENDING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL TROUGHING OVER
THE NE US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NE
BRINGING A FEW BRIEF CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WITH POLAR
VORTEX REMAINING OVER HUDSONS BAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS AT NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

FINALLY...THE LAST ITEM OF INTEREST APPEARS TO BE THE INTERACTION OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGIES LATE NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL SE
SINKING OF THE POLAR VORTEX ACROSS E CANADA WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL
FOR PHASING OF STREAMS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW PREDICTABILITY EXISTS OUT THIS FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND OFFSHORE TNGT.

VFR THRU AT LEAST 3Z FRI. EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THEREAFTER WITH CIGS AROUND 3K FT.

DECREASING WINDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD...LEVELING OFF AT AROUND 5-8KT
TNGT. DIRECTION GRADUALLY VEERS THRU THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF AS NE
THIS MRNG AND BECOMING ENE TNGT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL THRU 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL THRU 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL THRU 13Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.LATE THU NIGHT-FRI MRNG...MVFR.
.FRI AFTN-SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...ALTHOUGH AN
OCNL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAY STILL OCCUR ON EASTERN LI SOUND FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO. SCA CONDS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N THIS
MORNING...GUSTS WILL DIMINISH. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY EVENING.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK TO SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN FRI AFTN AS LOW PRES
PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

A PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SE OF 40/70
LAT/LON FRI NIGHT...WILL HAVE SCA SWELLS CONTINUING TO BUILD ON
THE OCEAN INTO SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT POSES A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SCA GUSTS ON
THE OCEAN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$