Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201752 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 152 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will linger across the region this afternoon. Another weak cold front will pass through Wednesday afternoon and evening, followed high pressure on Thursday. A frontal system will approach on Friday, and move across Saturday morning. Another system will then impact the region Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Western Atlantic ridging breaks down enough into Wed to allow the upper low over Ontario/Quebec and associated long wave trough to sliding northeast into Eastern Canada. Weak sfc front draped across the area. Subsidence in the wake of an upper shortwave will allow for drying conditions and slightly above seasonable temps this afternoon...generally lower to mid 80s. Upper 80s NYC/NJ metro. Deep mixing has resulted in gusty conditions (25 to 30 mph)...particularly away from the south coasts. A high risk of rip current development is expected due to residual 5-6 ft@8 sec southerly swells. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The longwave trough axis approaches tonight and passes through the region on Wednesday. Tranquil conditions tonight with seasonable temps in the 60s. Combination of diurnal heating and shortwave forcing should allow for isolated-scattered aft/early eve low-top convective development. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm with some weak instability now evident in hail growth region. Gusty winds expected with any shower activity. Temps should be slightly above seasonable once again...in the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore Wednesday night, with weak ridging and an associated surface high building into the region on Thursday. This will allow the daylight hours on Thursday to remain dry before a frontal system approaches the region on Friday. A few showers are possible Thursday night as the warm front lifts north, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday with the cold front. While the 00Z model suite has come into somewhat better agreement, notable differences still exist in the progression of the cold front offshore into the weekend. In particular, the GFS continues to stall the front over the region on Saturday, allowing rain to linger into the weekend. Sided with the majority of guidance, which has the front clearing the area Saturday morning, keeping the day mostly dry. Weak high pressure then builds in for the day on Sunday before more model differences emerge with the details of the upper trough approaching the region late Sunday into Monday. In addition, will have to continue to monitor the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico as there are some indications its remnants may get caught in the westerlies and approach the region by the weekend. Daytime highs through the period will continue to be near normal, in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will continue to run about five degrees above normal, in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weak high pressure builds in behind a departing cold front this afternoon. VFR. WSW-SW flow with gusts mostly 20-25 kt this afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 30kt possible this aftn. Winds could vary from 260 magnetic to 190 magnetic this aftn, but should be closer to 220 magnetic more often than not. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 26-29kt possible this aftn. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 26-29kt possible this aftn. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 25-28kt possible this aftn. KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 25-28kt possible this aftn. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday...VFR. Chance of aftn or early eve shra/tstm. SW gusts around 20 kt. .Thursday...VFR. .Friday...Chance of mainly aftn showers/tstms with MVFR or lower conds. SW gusts around 20 kt. .Saturday...CHC early -shra/MVFR, otherwise VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt. .Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Southerly swells of 5-6 ft will maintain SCA conditions on the ocean waters this afternoon. Near shore gusts to 25 kt expected this afternoon with deep mixing. Seas on the ocean waters should gradually fall below SCA from west to east tonight into Wednesday morning. Thereafter...expecting sub-SCA conditions until Friday afternoon...at which time when seas on the ocean could reach 5 ft ahead of an approaching frontal system. Once the front clears the area on Saturday, sub- SCA conditions are then expected for the remainder of the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No flooding impacts are anticipated through Sunday. && .EQUIPMENT... KOKX weather radar is scheduled for maintenance starting this Friday June 23rd for a period of 3 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB/NV NEAR TERM...NV/PW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...FEB AVIATION...JC/Goodman MARINE...FEB/NV/PW HYDROLOGY...FEB/NV EQUIPMENT...

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