-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 201752
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
152 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will linger across the region this afternoon.
Another weak cold front will pass through Wednesday afternoon
and evening, followed high pressure on Thursday. A frontal
system will approach on Friday, and move across Saturday
morning. Another system will then impact the region Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Western Atlantic ridging breaks down enough into Wed to allow
the upper low over Ontario/Quebec and associated long wave
trough to sliding northeast into Eastern Canada.

Weak sfc front draped across the area. Subsidence in the wake of
an upper shortwave will allow for drying conditions and
slightly above seasonable temps this afternoon...generally lower
to mid 80s. Upper 80s NYC/NJ metro. Deep mixing has resulted in
gusty conditions (25 to 30 mph)...particularly away from the
south coasts.

A high risk of rip current development is expected due to
residual 5-6 ft@8 sec southerly swells.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The longwave trough axis approaches tonight and passes through
the region on Wednesday.

Tranquil conditions tonight with seasonable temps in the 60s.

Combination of diurnal heating and shortwave forcing should allow
for isolated-scattered aft/early eve low-top convective
development. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm with
some weak instability now evident in hail growth region. Gusty
winds expected with any shower activity. Temps should be
slightly above seasonable once again...in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move offshore Wednesday
night, with weak ridging and an associated surface high building
into the region on Thursday. This will allow the daylight hours on
Thursday to remain dry before a frontal system approaches the region
on Friday. A few showers are possible Thursday night as the warm
front lifts north, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday with the cold front. While the 00Z model suite
has come into somewhat better agreement, notable differences still
exist in the progression of the cold front offshore into the
weekend. In particular, the GFS continues to stall the front over
the region on Saturday, allowing rain to linger into the weekend.
Sided with the majority of guidance, which has the front clearing
the area Saturday morning, keeping the day mostly dry.

Weak high pressure then builds in for the day on Sunday before more
model differences emerge with the details of the upper trough
approaching the region late Sunday into Monday. In addition, will
have to continue to monitor the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of
Mexico as there are some indications its remnants may get caught in
the westerlies and approach the region by the weekend.

Daytime highs through the period will continue to be near normal, in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will continue to run about
five degrees above normal, in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds in behind a departing cold front
this afternoon.

VFR. WSW-SW flow with gusts mostly 20-25 kt this afternoon.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 30kt possible this
aftn. Winds could vary from 260 magnetic to 190 magnetic this
aftn, but should be closer to 220 magnetic more often than not.

KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 26-29kt possible this aftn.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 26-29kt possible this aftn.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 25-28kt possible this aftn.

KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional.

KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 25-28kt possible this aftn.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday...VFR. Chance of aftn or early eve shra/tstm. SW
gusts around 20 kt.
.Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...Chance of mainly aftn showers/tstms with MVFR or
lower conds. SW gusts around 20 kt.
.Saturday...CHC early -shra/MVFR, otherwise VFR. NW gusts
20-25 kt.
.Sunday...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly swells of 5-6 ft will maintain SCA conditions on the
ocean waters this afternoon. Near shore gusts to 25 kt expected
this afternoon with deep mixing.

Seas on the ocean waters should gradually fall below SCA from
west to east tonight into Wednesday morning.

Thereafter...expecting sub-SCA conditions until Friday
afternoon...at which time when seas on the ocean could reach 5
ft ahead of an approaching frontal system. Once the front clears
the area on Saturday, sub- SCA conditions are then expected for
the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No flooding impacts are anticipated through Sunday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX weather radar is scheduled for maintenance starting this
Friday June 23rd for a period of 3 days.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/NV
NEAR TERM...NV/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...JC/Goodman
MARINE...FEB/NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...FEB/NV
EQUIPMENT...