-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 220814
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 11Z
AS TEMPS SLOWLY COOL TO THEIR DEW POINTS WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED
FROM THE UPPER WIND FLOW.

LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC OCEAN AND LONG ISLAND SOUND SEA BREEZES
OF ARND 10 KT 15Z-17Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHC POPS OF LESS THAN 30 PCT NORTHWEST
OF NYC FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY 18Z-02Z. BRIEF HVY DOWNPOUR
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING WITH ENHANCED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION MAKING IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.

WEDNESDAY...SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS WITH DAY TIME HIGH TEMPS
REACHING AROUND 90 ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. NO EXTENDED HEAT
WAVE IS FORECAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

A WARM MOIST UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY WED AFTN
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF NYC. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY BY
6 PM.

PRIMARY POTENTIAL HAZARD IS HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING MAINLY OF LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

BECAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
FORECAST...A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME FOR THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH A RATHER WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND SHOWALTER
INDICES OF 0 TO -2 PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE REGION AT THE MINIMUM INT HE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET...AND POSSIBLY IN A
COUPLED UPPER JET REGION - DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. MODELS DUE VARY ON THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE
LATTER. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-35 KT DURING
THE EVENING SO THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/CAPE FOR ISOLATED
SUPER CELLS DURING THE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/S CT/LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY ZONES. AS SUCH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PRIOR TO 6Z.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON AMOUNT/EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF 850 HPA COLD FRONT. NAM/SREF ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR COLD FRONTS TO
HANG UP CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS...SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE 850 COLD
FRONT MAKES SOME SENSE...SO DID WEIGH POPS AND CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES MORE TOWARDS THIS LINE OF THINKING. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON
THURSDAY. HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY EVENING
ACROSS FAR SE ZONES...THIS MIGHT BE A TAD TOO LONG ULTIMATELY...BUT
WITH OVERALL TREND WITH FRONTAL TIMING A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION LASTING A TAD LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES THEN ADDED A DEGREE TO WEIGH TOWARDS WARMER
SOLUTIONS - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE...THEN ADDED 2 DEGREES TO WEIGH TOWARDS WARMER
SOLUTIONS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE REGIONS WEATHER FRIDAY-MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
EXACT POSITION/STRENGTH OF A RATHER LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...AND WHEN SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE REGION SHOULD BE
BETWEEN SPOKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.
SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE COULD
PASS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME -SHRA ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...AM MORE CONFIDENT IN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL NOT RAIN
THE ENTIRE TIME...IN FACT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FOR MORE TIME
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAN IT WILL RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
GIVEN DIFFICULTY IN TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A CUTOFF LOW
THIS FAR OUT...YET ALONE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HANDLING OF
A CUTOFF LOW THIS FAR OUT...DO NOT WANT TO EVEN ATTEMPT ANY SORT OF
TIMING - SO HAVE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY-MONDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND LOWS STARTING OUT
BELOW NORMAL AND TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY.

PRIMARILY VFR WITH LIGHT SW FLOW OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KSWF/KHPN/KISP/KGON AROUND 09-11Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
HAPPENING.

SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS ON TUESDAY. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IT MAKES IT TO KEWR...RESULTING IN WIND DIR AROUND
170-180 TRUE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT-WED...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM NW OF THE NY METRO
LATE.
.WED NIGHT-THU...SLOW MOVING COLD FROPA. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
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WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OF 25 KT AND 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FOR NOW APPEARS GUSTS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN RELAXES OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND REMAINS LIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT WINDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREA...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER IS
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PICCA
MARINE...GC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT