Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 152053 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 353 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the Tri-State Region tonight, and drift offshore on the Birthday of Martin Luther King, Jr. A warm front approaches Tuesday and moves in Tuesday night. This moves across by early Wednesday with a cold frontal passage shortly thereafter. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday before it retreats north of the region next weekend. Another weak low pressure system approaches for the start of next weekend with possibly a stronger one approaching for late next Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will produce dry weather and mainly clear skies. There will be some cirrus at times, especially on Monday. Winds will become nearly calm tonight, and with some snow on the ground in places, the temperatures have been adjusted slightly below guidance. A blend of the guidance was used for Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Increasing theta-e could lead to some light precipitation late with an established warm air advection pattern. The 12Z ECMWF and GFS both produced something before 12Z, with the 18Z NAM trending in that direction. Low chances were therefore included in the forecast. Most of the area should be below freezing, so there will be some light icing if precipitation does in fact occur. It would be only an advisory level event if it did happen, so it has not been included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook per local policy. Because of the light southwest surface flow and increasing clouds, temperatures were forecast sightly higher than MOS, with a bias corrected all model blend used.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Main concerning item in the long term is the potential for freezing rain Tuesday. This will be mainly across the interior with otherwise a rain event Tuesday through Wednesday night associated with a frontal system passage from the west. The scenario will have a retreating high and antecedent winds will be the key because the winds become very light Tuesday, which will make it difficult to get warmth from onshore flow. The icing potential will be greater for the interior while the coast the time window will be quite brief in the morning. Weak high returns Thursday through Friday and then this retreats to the north going into next weekend. Meanwhile, another weak low pressure system will be approaching for the start of the weekend and another system approaching to close out next weekend. Overall, aside from the colder period to start Tuesday, temperatures in the long term are expected to be on average 5-10 degrees above normal, more so for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds tonight through Monday morning. VFR conditions prevail through Monday morning with clear skies expected. Northwest to north winds persist at around 10 KTs or less, then diminish this evening. Light and variable winds are expected overnight, with light west/southwest winds after 14-16Z Monday, under 10 KTs. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH Friday... .Monday afternoon-Monday night...VFR. .Tuesday...VFR early, then MVFR to IFR in rain or freezing rain initially across the interior terminals. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...IFR or lower probable in rain. Conditions improving late Wednesday. .Wednesday night...VFR likely with low chance of MVFR in any residual rain. .Thursday-Friday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Monday night due to high pressure over the area. A SCA will be possible on the eastern ocean waters, mainly east of Moriches Inlet late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as well as late Thursday through Friday. The late Thursday through Friday potential SCA would then be due to mainly higher seas potentially getting to 5 ft. Otherwise, below SCA conditions are expected for other waters and for other time periods during the marine long term.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation is possible Monday night. About a half inch of rainfall is expected Tuesday through Wednesday with locally higher amounts possible. No hydro problems expected.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...PW MARINE...JMC/JM HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM

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