Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191129 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 729 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak and dry cold front pushes south through the region this afternoon. A warm front slowly moves back north on Thursday. A frontal system approaches Thursday Night and moves through Friday into Friday Night. Associated low pressure may linger over New England into the weekend...resulting in lingering unsettled weather. A weak clipper system moves through Sunday Night into Monday...with high pressure building in its wake through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak cold front tracks south across the area today. Nothing more than a isolated sprinkle as the front moves through. Winds shift to the NW then N behind the boundary with drier a drier airmass filtering in behind it. Expect another warm day with many high temperature records again in jeopardy with highs similar to yesterday. See climate section below. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Frontal boundary stalls to the south tonight as high pressure builds over New England tonight. As the high shifts offshore on Thu...the front will slowly lift back north as a warm front. WAA pattern will likely allow for showers to develop especially across western locations that are further away from the center of the high. This has trended slower over the past 24 hours...thus have pushed back onset of PoPs a bit...and there`s some guidance keeping it dry until late afternoon. This may the case...especially with a damming pattern depicted from the retreating high. PoPs may need to be delayed further. Lows will be a few degrees below normal temperatures tonight...and above normal again Thu...although not as warm as Tue and today with more cloud cover and easterly flow. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Complicated forecast to start the period as a complex frontal system moves through the region Fri/Fri Night...with some degree of interaction with a potential offshore tropical/sub-tropical system...and ultimately forming a slowly ne moving cutoff low in the vicinity of New England Sat. General agreement exists in amplifying Pac and Northern stream shortwave energy moving from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Thu Night toward the east coast Friday...with an associated frontal system approaching the region. This will present an increasing chance for showers Thu Night into Friday ahead of the approaching cold front...and along developing offshore inverted trough. Fri into Fri night...quite a bit of uncertainty exists on duration and intensity of rainfall...which could linger into Sat. This is because there is quite a bit of model spread on phasing details with these two shortwave energies Friday Night into Saturday...and therefore track/location/strength of low pressure developing along the cold front over the region Fri/Fri Night and moving into New England on Saturday. This also affects the amount of interaction with tropical moisture...although overwhelming model guidance clustering at this point is that any tropical/subtropical circulation would stay well offshore. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official tropical forecast information. A weaker and more progressive trough will likely result in quicker movement of the frontal system and further north development of low pressure with little tropical interaction and limited rainfall for the area...while a deeper and less progressive trough would result in a slower movement of the frontal system and developing low pressure, with more tropical moisture interaction, and heavier rain potential. At this point the range of solution between both scenarios are possible. Higher forecast confidence is in breezy and cool weather in the wake of the cold front this weekend as closed low pressure slowly lifts through New England or Southeastern Canada. Wind gust in the 30s and slightly below seasonable temps likely. As mentioned above...rain shower activity could be lingering through Saturday...with drying conditions on Sunday. Models in good agreement with another northern stream trough digging into the NE Mon Tue. An associated quick moving clipper system races through New England during the Sunday Night into Monday period...perhaps bringing some light rain/showers. In the wake of its cold frontal passage...a dry but unseasonably cool canadian airmass likely for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mainly VFR as weak high pressure remains over the terminals. SW winds continue to subside this morning. Winds will shift to the west this afternoon and then northwest as a cold front moves through late this morning into the afternoon. Winds then shift to the east tonight. Wind speeds should remain below 10 kt through the TAF period. MVFR ceilings for the 30 hour TAF sites as the cold front moves back toward the area as a warm front Thursday morning. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .Outlook for 12Z Thursday through Sunday... .THU-FRI...MVFR or lower possible in potential showers, especially Thursday night into Friday. .SAT...VFR. W Wind G 30 KT. .SUN...VFR. W Wind G 25 KT. .Outlook for 06Z Thursday through Sunday... .WED night...VFR. .THU-FRI...MVFR or lower possible in potential showers, especially Thursday night into Friday. .SAT...VFR. W Wind G 30 KT. .SUN...VFR. W Wind G 25 KT.
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&& .MARINE... Winds will continue to decrease today. Ocean seas are currently running 3 to 6 ft...which is a foot above both wavewatch and SWAN models. With long period e/se swells still running at 2 to 3 ft...the SCA on the ocean remains through noon. Diminishing wind waves should allow seas to fall below SCA from w to e late this morning this afternoon. Tranquil conditions then prevail on the waters through Thu as high pressure builds over New England. Sub sca conditions likely Thu Night into Fri with a frontal system approaching and entering the waters...but relatively weak gradient. Then potential for w/nw gale conditions developing Friday Night into Sat..especially on the the wake of the frontal system and deepening low to the north. These gale conditions could continuing into Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... No rainfall through tonight. Uncertainty with regard to precipitation amounts from a complex frontal system Thursday through Friday...and possibly lingering through Sat. An ensemble mean rainfall potential for 1/2 to 1 inch of rain exists, but it could be significantly less if a more progressive scenario is realized. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flood statement for the south shore of Nassau County for the late morning high tide cycle. Tidal departures between 1/2 and 1 1/2 ft are expected which may cause some locations to experience brief minor tidal flooding of the most vulnerable shore roads and/or adjacent properties. Potential for minor coastal flooding ahead of an approaching frontal system with the Thu and Fri aft high tide cycle. Generally 1 to 2 ft tidal departures are needed for minor coastal flooding. && .CLIMATE... Record warmth continues today. Wednesday October 19: Climate SiteRECORDNWS Forecast High Bridgeport 81/1963 80 Central Park 83/1963 82 Islip 74/1998 82 Kennedy 75/1965 81 LaGuardia 80/1945 82 Newark 82/194585 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/NV NEAR TERM...24 SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JP MARINE...24/NV HYDROLOGY...24/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.