Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221934 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 334 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN START TO DIMINISH. GUSTS COULD RANGE AS MUCH AS 20-25 MPH THIS EVENING. ALSO...ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST...WITH DRY WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES FALL TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C TONIGHT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. LOWS AT THE SURFACE WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S. TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS MAY TIE OR BREAK RECORDS TONIGHT. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY. THINKING THAT WINDS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY MORE MILD AIRMASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. 60S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. A LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND HAVE LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LITTLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL HAVE SHOWERS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS THE HIGH REMAINS OFF SHORE...WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVE AND PASS E OF CAPE COD ON FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THRU THE REGION FRI AFTN. BEST CHANCE FOR -RA ALONG A KJFK-KISP LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING LOW. MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO CIGS AROUND 3000 FT IN THE -RA. THE PCPN ENDS FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT-BKN 6000 FT CLOUDS FRI. FAIRLY LIGHT S/SSW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10 KT THRU 00Z. VARIABILITY IN THE LIGHT FLOW THRU 5-9Z...THEN NW FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE LOW PASSES E OF THE AREA AND STRENGTHENS. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...A SHOT OF STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI AFTN. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY FOR CIGS TO DROP BLW 3000 FT THRU 5Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TERMINAL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NRN EDGE OF THE - RA SHIELD. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF THIS AREA SHIFTS NWD. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TERMINAL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NWRN EDGE OF THE -RA SHIELD. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF THIS AREA SHIFTS NWD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AT 20-30KT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS DIMINISH AFT 00Z. .SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS BECOMING W 10-20KT IN THE AFTN. .SUN...VFR WITH WSW WINDS 15-25KT. .MON...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT. SHRA POSSIBLE. FLOW BECOMING SLY. .TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS AND FOG. SW FLOW. && .MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS EVENING AND FIRST PART OF TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY...WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS. SOME NEAR SHORE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. AT THIS TIME THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS THEN REMAINING AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO...SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH MIN RH AGAIN IN THE 20S AND NW-W WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH AN SPS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CLIMATE... WE WILL COME CLOSE TO BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AT A FEW OF OUR CLIMATE SITES. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR OUR 6 CLIMATE SITES. SITE.........FORECAST.........RECORD NEWARK..........45...........43/1931 BRIDGEPORT......43...........42/1963 CENTRAL PARK....48...........43/1963 LAGUARDIA.......50...........45/1963 KENNEDY.........48...........44/1963 ISLIP...........43...........42/2006 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MET NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JMC MARINE...BC/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/MET CLIMATE...BC

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