Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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973 FXUS61 KOKX 060346 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1046 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. EXPECT VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATE TONIGHT OVER FRESH SNOW PACK. EXPECT TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS BARRENS REGIONS...AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW. A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING CENTRAL STATES TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. EXPECT TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOW PACK. POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN. A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN. THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH. AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS 977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON. WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5 LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS. ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY. SOME LEFTOVER GUSTS 25-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KT OR LESS. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY. .WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SUB SCA CONDS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/NV HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV

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