Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270154 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 854 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA SCOTIA BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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THE COASTAL LOW IS ABOUT TO PASS JUST NW OF 40N/70W. DRY SLOT IS KEEPING PRECIP RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT THINK BANDS OF PRECIP JUST NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO SNOW IN NYC METRO AND UP INTO SW CT...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS STILL POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON DROPPED ADVYS IN NYC...AND REPLACED WARNINGS EXCEPT FOR ORANGE/PUTNAM/W PASSAIC WITH ADVYS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE. DROPPED WIND ADVY AS WINDS HAVE BACKED N OUT EAST AND ARE DIMINISHING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRES S OF LONG ISLAND WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE PASSES ON THANKSGIVING. MAINLY MVFR WITH -RA AND BR ACROSS THE REGION. WRN SHIELD OF PCPN ACROSS ERN PA WILL ATTEMPT TO COME THRU THIS EVE. CHANGE TO SNOW LIKELY IN THE BAND...ASSUMING IT HOLDS TOGETHER. THEREAFTER IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS LINGER...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM TIME TO TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN THANKSGIVING WITH THE WEAK UPR SYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STRONGEST WINDS KISP AND KGON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TNGT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH TNGT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE -SHSN OF FLURRIES. .FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES. .SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR. .MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
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STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT. THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA ON THE HARBOR/WESTERN SOUND. GALES CONTINUE ON MOST OTHER WATERS TIL MIDNIGHT...AND COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 3 AM...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER OUT EAST THU NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED THIS EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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N FLOW THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SURF OF 2-4 FT ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>010. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338- 345. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...FIG LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JMC/JM MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

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