Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241741 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 141 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HOURLY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED HIGHS 1-2 CATEGORIES AS A RESULT...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDING...A MIX OF WARMER MET/EKD GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. WOULD EXPECT NE NJ OUTSIDE OF NE NJ...AND NYC IMMEDIATELY AWAY FROM THE S SHORE OF QUEENS/BROOKLYN TO BE AROUND 80-LOWER 80S. SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID 70S-AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UPPER 60S- LOWER 70S NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES. ALSO...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER W ZONES TO REFLECT PASSING CIRRUS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION. FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY. IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE. FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW FLOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED THROUGH KISP/KBDR/KGON/KJFK...AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KLGA RIGHT AROUND 18Z. SEA BREEZES CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN. WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. .TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS... ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL BRING DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM/MET AVIATION...JC MARINE...MALOIT/PW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JM

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