Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230548 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 148 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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05Z OBS STILL INDICATING SEVERAL LOCATIONS GUSTING AT OR CLOSE TO WIND ADVSY CRITERIA...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVSY FOR SUFFOLK AND COASTAL CT FROM NEW HAVEN EAST UNTIL 6AM AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE WIND GRIDS. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MEANDER S OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND A BLEND WAS USED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR. EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY. QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AS THIS STORM HAS BEEN RATHER IMPRESSIVE. TIMING ANY STORMS THOUGH IS TOUGH...AND CANNOT BE INCLUDED IN TAFS. PLEASE REFER TO TERMINAL FORECAST AMENDMENTS FOR SPECIFICS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5 KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAINS QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAINS GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC TERMINALS. .FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS. W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON. SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TODAY. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT. STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND AROUND 1/2 INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ010>012. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078>081. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$

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