Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 100836 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 336 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRES WILL TRACK E OF MONTAUK TODAY AND INTO THE N ATLC TNGT. A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THU. AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LGT SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA. THE LLVLS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THIS MRNG AND WITH WEAK LIFT THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS BY SUNRISE. RATES ARE VERY LGT SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR THE MRNG RUSH WITH REPORTS FROM CT OF THE SNOW STICKING ON AREA ROADS. A SHRTWV NEAR DC WILL TRACK NEWD TODAY. ALL MODELS KEEP THIS JUST S OF LI. THE ECMWF IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MDT PCPN...SO IF THE FEATURE DOES MAKE IT INTO THE CWA...PARTICULARLY LI...A SHORT FUSED ADVY FOR 2-4 INCHES COULD BE NEEDED. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED HOWEVER THAT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE CWA SO THE PROB OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW. THE LLVLS DRY OUT THIS AFTN WITH WLY FLOW...SO SNOW CHCS DECREASE THRU THE DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE NEARLY SATURATED H85-H7 REGION TNGT. THIS LEVEL WILL BE THERMALLY CONDUCIVE TO SNOW PRODUCTION. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED FLURRIES IN THE FCST. TEMPS GENERALLY A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TRENDED HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COLDER NAM12 2M DUE TO THE SNOW COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... H5 TROF AXIS...INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCT TO NMRS SNOW SHWRS. SOME OF THESE COULD BE LOCALLY HVY WITH THE NAM EVEN PRODUCING ABOUT 100 J/KG OF SBCAPE. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN THE FCST. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN ON UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHWRS OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT -25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN. AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE TIMES IN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 2-3 MILES. AS THE SNOW ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOME WESTERLY 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE GUSTS SUBSIDE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SNOW ENDING MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SNOW ENDING MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SNOW ENDING MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SNOW ENDING MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SNOW ENDING MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SNOW ENDING MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN... .LATE WED NIGHT...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. .THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT. .FRI...VFR. .SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT. && .MARINE... SCA COND THRU TNGT ON THE OCEAN. THE SCA ELSEWHERE WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS APPEAR TO PEAK IN THE LOW 20S. AN OCNL GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE BY THU MRNG. ALL AREAS UNDER A GALE WATCH FOR THU AND THU NGT WITH INCREASING WLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... LGT AMTS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW SHWRS ON THU WILL PRODUCE BASIN AVG QPF OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU NGT THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURGE LOWERS FOR THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED. HERE ARE THE RECORDS: STATION.........RECORD MINIMUM.............RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14 NYC.................2 (1916)....................17 (1979).... LGA.................1 (1979)....................15 (1979).... JFK.................4 (1979)....................17 (1979).... ISP.................7 (2015)....................26 (1987).... EWR.................0 (1979)....................15 (1979).... BDR.................3 (2015*)...................18 (1979).... *IN 1979 AS WELL && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/DW HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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