Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 181746 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 146 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK AS MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SCT-BKN CU IN PLACE UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD LIFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN BEGIN TO SCATTER LATE. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER LOWERED HIGHS JUST A TOUCH...UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE EAST LATE AT NIGHT...TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...TO 60-65 IN NYC METRO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE SHALLOW BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM W-E EARLY IN THE MORNING...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY AT FIRST...THEN SE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO LOCALLY VIA A SUPERIMPOSED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HIGHS TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WHERE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE GREATER. TUE NIGHT...SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOME PTCLDY FROM NYC METRO WEST AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SFC LOW PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SHOULD HAVE NO MORE EFFECT THAN TO TURN WINDS BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MORE EASTERLY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH 50S INLAND AND MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WHILE A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A DRIER FORECAST WILL STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH WHICH COULD BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE WEEK...AT LEAST KEEPING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. IF THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WEST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD BE DRY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGH DOES BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDINESS.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. THE FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOW FROM BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...ESPECIALLY AT JFK. COASTAL CT TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW...WINDS INCREASE TO 8-10 KT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. IF THIS OCCURS...BEST TIMING WILL BE AFTER 20Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING. AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY...VFR. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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QUIET CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOWS PASS WEST AND SOUTH. AN INCREASING E FLOW...STRENGTHENING A FEW KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...MAY ALLOW OCEAN SEAS TO BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT...MAINLY E OF MORICHES INLET.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BC MARINE...GOODMAN/MET HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

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