Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220544 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 144 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary southeast of Long Island for the next several days, become post-tropical on Friday if not sooner, then dissipate this weekend. High pressure build late Friday into Saturday then remains over the region into early next week. Hurricane Maria is expected to pass offshore of the east coast and the move farther offshore mid to late next week as a cold front approaches. The cold front moves through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure builds in behind the front Thursday. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose and Maria. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Forecast is generally on track. Pcpn moving in from the east slightly faster so have adjusted timing of increasing PoPs a bit. Otherwise...TS Jose will remain stationary well SE of eastern Long Island. The tightest pressure gradient between Jose and the building high will reside across the Twin Forks of Long Island and southeast Connecticut tonight, where wind gusts 25-30 mph are still possible tonight. Mid deck shield progressing westward across LI and CT, with a few bands of showers moving through SE CT and eastern Long Island periodically overnight. Areas from NYC and north/west should remain dry. Lows tonight will range from the lower/mid 60s along the coast and in NYC metro, to 55-60 inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... With better daytime mixing winds out east should be a little stronger, with gusts 30-35 mph through much of the day. Otherwise sct-numerous morning showers over Long Island and southern CT should diminish in coverage through the afternoon. High temps on Fri should be a little lower than those of today, ranging from the lower/mid 70s across most of CT/Long Island, to the lower 80s in NYC/NE NJ. Skies should gradually clear from west to east Fri night, becoming mostly clear form NYC north/west and ptcldy over western Long Island/CT, but remaining overcast out east. Lows Fri night should have similar range to those expected for tonight, from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Dangerous rip currents will continue at the ocean beaches on Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weakening post-tropical Jose lingers about 200-300 miles offshore of Montauk Saturday and becomes a remnant low Sunday, then dissipates. As Jose is expected to drift slightly westward a few showers may brush the far eastern areas, mainly southeastern Connecticut and the twin forks of Long Island, Saturday morning. Meanwhile an upper ridge and surface high will be building into the northeast Saturday and remain across the region into early next week. The upper ridge and surface high weaken Tuesday into Wednesday as a northern stream long wave trough digs into Great Lakes and northern plains into Thursday. Meanwhile Maria will be moving offshore of the east coast. There are timing difference with the timing of a cold front expected to move through Wednesday night into early Thursday at this time. The upper trough and surface cold front is expected to move Maria farther offshore mid to late next week. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Maria. Once again there will be increasing beach hazards with building surf and the possibility of dangerous rip currents in advance of Maria. There is also uncertainty with how much precipitation will accompany both Maria and the cold front. At this time will be keeping probabilities at slight chance to low end chance. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Tropical Storm Jose will meander off the southern New England coast today. Generally VFR. KGON may see a periods of MVFR through the TAF period, especially in areas of showers. Occasional gusts to 20 kt this morning, possibly 30 kt at KGON. Gusts increase and become more widespread after sunrise. Expect gusts between 20-30 kt, with the highest across the eastern terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday Night...VFR. Gusts gradually subsiding. .Saturday-Tuesday...VFR. Wind becoming N-NE 10-20 kt. A few higher gusts possible.
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&& .MARINE... SCA conds will continue for the ocean and the eastern waters late tonight into Fri morning as winds increase, continuing all day Fri. This should also bring SCA conditions for the south shore bays. Most places will gusts to 25-30 kt, but think a small portion of the easternmost ocean zone SE of Montauk could see a brief period of minimal tropical storm conditions or close to it Fri morning. In collaboration with NHC and BOX decided to stick with SCA for the zone but mention the window for stronger conditions. Long period easterly swells will likely continue on the ocean waters into the weekend. Saturday winds across the eastern ocean waters may be around small craft as gusty winds from weakening Jose impact there area. There is uncertainty as to the strength and westward extent of the gusty winds. Then winds will be below small craft levels through the middle of next week. Across the remainder of the waters winds and gusts remain below small craft levels. Rough seas and swells will be affecting the ocean waters with small craft seas expected Saturday through Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems anticipated through the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TS Jose will remain nearly stationary a couple hundred miles SE of eastern Long Island, with Ekman forcing keeping elevated water levels along the coast despite offshore winds. This will have water levels peaking with the Friday morning high tide cycle, resulting in widespread minor coastal flooding in the south shore bays of Western LI and NYC and localized minor elsewhere. There is a low probability of localized moderate coastal flooding along the south shore back bays of Long Island Fri am. Water levels should gradually drop Friday night into the weekend, with any minor flooding localized to the most vulnerable south shore bay locales Friday Night. Rough surf will also continue into the weekend, but dune erosion from this point on should be localized. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ330-340- 350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BC MARINE...Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.