Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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232 FXUS61 KOKX 271956 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass through early this evening with high pressure building east from the OhiO Valley. The high passes south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night. A frontal system passes north of the region Thursday through Friday night. A cold front approaches Saturday and moves across Sunday into Sunday night. The front may linger south of the region early next week, otherwise weak high pressure returns. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A cold front works across the area late this afternoon/early this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms. While there is modest instability and deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt, dry air in the mixed layer and subsidence will be limiting factors. In fact, much of the activity on radar has been weak across the forecast area. Still though, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out. Winds would be the greatest threat. Large hail is unlikely due to the low-topped nature of the cells. High pressure over the Ohio Valley builds east tonight with clear skies and W/NW winds. Low temperatures will remain just below normal level. There remains a moderate risk for rip current development into this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough passes offshore early Wednesday with height rises and plenty of subsidence. Surface high pressure passes to the south off the Mid Atlantic coast in the afternoon. This will result in another seasonably cool day with low humidity. W-NW winds will gradually veer around to the SW in the afternoon. Highs Wednesday will once again be just below normal, generally in the upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be a bit milder and closer to normal Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure slides offshore Thursday. A weak shortwave will move through Thursday evening and into Thursday night, resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Unsettled weather expected Friday and through the weekend as multiple shortwaves are expected to impact the region. There is a chance for showers/thunderstorms through this period but mainly with peak heating during the afternoon/evening hours. High pressure builds briefly on Monday then showers may develop once again on Tuesday as the next frontal system approaches the area from the northwest. Temperatures start off near Thursday but then trend warmer for the rest of the forecast period. It will be getting warmer and more humid. The temperatures will average about 3-5 degrees above normal. Temperatures are forecast to be well into the 80s Thursday through Monday with some locations in the NY Metro and Northeast NJ reaching near 90 for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR as a trough of low pressure passes across the terminals late this afternoon and evening. High pressure builds south of the region on Wednesday. South flow across the region with speeds 10-15 kt. The wind direction will gradually veering to the SW by late afternoon and evening. Winds become W-WNW overnight 10 kt or less. A westerly flow will develop on Wednesday. Showers along with isolated thunder will be possible this afternoon. Any storms could result in gusty winds and a reduction in visibility from heavy rain. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments may be possible for afternoon showers. An occasional gust 18-20 kt possible in the afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments may be possible for afternoon showers. An occasional gust 18-20 kt possible in the afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments may be possible for afternoon showers. An occasional gust 18-20 kt possible in the afternoon. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments may be possible for afternoon showers. An occasional gust 18-20 kt possible in the afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments may be possible for afternoon showers. An occasional gust 18-20 kt possible in the afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: An occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday afternoon...VFR. .Thursday...VFR. Chance of a late day shower/thunderstorm. .Friday through Sunday...MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions possible Thursday through Friday night for all ocean waters. Ocean seas are forecast to linger in small craft advisory conditions Saturday with waves near 5 ft particularly east of Fire Island Inlet. Much of the remainder of the weekend will have below small craft advisory conditions expected. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains NY) and KHVN (New Haven CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...BC MARINE...Fig/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW EQUIPMENT...//

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