Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 022342 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 742 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE REGION...AND THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE SOUTH FORK OF LI. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT. FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW FRI NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS. SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S. REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW. .SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON FRI. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DW NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MET MARINE...JC/DW HYDROLOGY...JC/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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