Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260839 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 439 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will cross the region today. High pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday and moves offshore by Thursday. A weak cold front approaches the region Thursday night into Friday and will linger into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Shortwave axis slides offshore this morning...with deep WNW flow today. At the surface a weak trough will develop and push east today. With 850 hpa temps still running in the high teens...deep mixing...downslope flow...and just some this cirrus filtering sunshine...expect temps to rise into the lower to mid 90s for much of the coastal plain. Upper 80s/Lower 90s for nw hills. Potential for a few upper 90s for NYC/NJ metro. Sea breezes should be limited to late day and immediate south coasts...if at all. Noticeably lower dewpoints should keep heat indices close to air temps...94 to 96 for NYC/NJ metro. Heat advisory continues. The risk for rip current development will be moderate for SE Suffolk county beaches, and will become moderate this afternoon as southerly swells increase to 3 ft and 6 to 7 second period with a residual long period 1 ft se swell.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models in good agreement with the region lying between a closed low over northern Quebec and southeastern US ridging. Zonal upper flow to start will back to the SW ahead of developing Great Lakes troughing. At the surface...weak high pressure builds into the region Wed and moves offshore Thu. Hot conditions will continue for midweek with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the south coasts. Based on warming aloft and deep mixing...could see a few upper 90s across NE NJ metro on Thu. Afternoon sea breeze development should keep south coastal areas in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days. Dewpoints should remain in the lower 60s...perhaps upper 50s during peak heating Wed...keeping heat indices at air temps. At this point it is likely heat indices stay below 95 degrees on Wed. A gradual moderation in dewpoints is likely Thu with return flow...which should have heat indices returning to the mid to upper 90s for NYC/NJ metro and Lower Hud. Otherwise...relatively comfortable temps tonight and Wed night...particularly outside the urban centers. Radiational cooling should allow for temps to drop into the lower to mid 60s across far outlying areas...to mid 70s for NYC/Nj metro. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak cold front is forecast to move across the area from the northwest Thursday night into Friday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday as the system crosses the area, with the possibility of some heavy rain depending on the track. The front may settle nearby through the weekend, setting the stage for unsettled weather with chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. High pressure builds into the area Monday. Temperatures will be near normal Thursday night through Monday. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west. Brief MVFR VSBYs possible in BR through 11Z, mainly outside of KNYC terminals. Otherwise, VFR. Generally W flow less than 10 KT this morning, then W flow becomes 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT. Gusts up to 25 KT possible at KJFK late in the afternoon. Winds become N tonight and lower to less than 10 KT. LGT/VRB winds likely after midnight tonight. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may be a few KT higher than forecast this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may be a few KT higher than forecast this afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMDs expected. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMDs expected. KHPN TAF Comments: Ocnl MVFR VSBY through this morning, then VFR. KISP TAF Comments: Ocnl MVFR VSBY through this morning, then VFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... . Late tonight-Early Thursday Afternoon...VFR. .Mid-Late Thursday Afternoon-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Offshore nearshore gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon. Sub sca conditions expected today through Thursday with weak pressure gradient as high pressure builds in and then offshore. Below small craft advisory conditions expected across the area waters Friday through the weekend with a weak pressure gradient. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions today...with westerly wind gusts 20 to 25 mph and min rh values in the 30s. With rainfall amounts varying from around a tenth of an inches to over 2 inches yesterday...a locally elevated threat for brush fire spread exists for areas that received little rainfall. Most susceptible areas would likely be northeastern New Jersey. Hot and dry conditions continue on Wednesday with min rh values in the 30s. Winds expected to be lighter than today. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry conditions through midweek. There is the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the area late Thursday through the weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MPS MARINE...FIG/NV FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV

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