Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020901 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 501 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...EXCEPT HAVE 50% CHC ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WITH THE LIFT TO THE EAST AND SOME NVA ALOFT BY MID-AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE MOST OR ALL OF THE AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY FOR ALL SPOTS EXCEPT SE CT WHERE RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL...THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND FORECAST MUCAPES SUGGEST THAT THIS INSTABILITY REMAINS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT`S TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MID LEVELS DRY OUT. STILL...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMALS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE. ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT INDEED HAPPENS. FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME. A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND PATCHY DZ. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PA AND WEST VA IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN 12Z TAFS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI... .MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR. .WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/ LOW CLOUDS.
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&& .MARINE... SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...24 MARINE...JC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT

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