Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 202332 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 732 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front passes east as another weak cold front approaches tonight and moves through Wednesday. A series of frontal systems will impact the area through early next week, the first Friday into early Saturday morning, and then another late Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure precedes and follows both of these systems. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Updated for current temperatures and dew points and winds through tonight. Upper level trough and associated shortwave approaches from the west tonight, as this feature pivots across the Great Lakes region. Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are anticipated tonight ahead of this feature, along with dry weather conditions. Any shower would be isolated later tonight. A light west flow prevails, and temperatures will fall and range from the upper 50s across the interior to around 70 around NYC. A high risk of rip current development continues into this evening due to residual 5-6 ft@8 second southerly swells. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main trough remains extended across the northeast as shortwave/PVA moves across New England during the daytime. A weak cold front at the sfc along with weak instability may be enough to trigger a few showers/thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will give way to a few more clouds in the afternoon before some clearing occurs at night as the shortwave passes, and diurnal instability wanes. A persistent west/southwest wind will boost temperatures well into the 80s, similar to today. Deeper mixing across the interior and away from marine influences will allow for higher gusts. Temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the 50s and 60s, per a mos blend. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An active northern branch of the polar jet will remain across the northern tier of the country with the mean upper trough residing from the Northern Plains into the Northeast. This will allow for several frontal systems to impact the area during the time, the first Friday into Friday night, and then another late Sunday into Monday. Weak high pressure will both precede and follow each of these systems. There is better agreement among the 12Z global models through the weekend with some subtle timing issues with multiple frontal boundaries. Th biggest difference arises Monday into Tuesday as the ECMWF stalls the cold front farther north across the Mid Atlantic with the forecast area along the northern edge of overrunning rains. The GFS is suppressed farther south with dry conditions and weak high pressure moving across the area. The ECMWF is focused on short waved energy digging in the backside of the upper trough across the midwest and upper Mississippi Valley. This in turn keeps higher heights across the eastern seaboard, and thus the frontal boundary stalls farther north. Took a model consensus approach here with a low chance of showers at this time. Prior to that time, a warm front passes through on Friday with a cold frontal passage late Friday night into Saturday morning. There are small timing difference with the possibility of showers lingering into Saturday morning. There is marginal instability and shear with a chance of scattered convection at this time. Another cold front works across the area late Sunday. Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Cindy will likely pass well south of the area Sunday, with limited moisture for this frontal system to work, Thus, only a low chance of showers. This will have to be watched closely though as the 00Z ECMWF was amplified enough with the upper trough to the west to track to remnants farther north, but still south of the region. Temperatures through much of the period will be near or just above seasonable levels. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak high pressure builds in behind a departing cold front into this evening. VFR. WSW-SW flow through the TAF period. Some gusts are possible over the next hour or two. Winds then become light and variable then increase again on Wednesday. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts diminish through 02Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts diminish through 02Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts diminish through 02Z. KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts diminish through 02Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts diminish through 02Z. KISP TAF Comments: Gusts diminish through 02Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night...VFR. .Thursday...VFR. .Friday...Chance of mainly aftn showers/tstms with MVFR or lower conds. SW gusts around 20 kt. .Saturday...CHC early -shra/MVFR, otherwise VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt. .Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Made minor adjustments to the winds and gusts across the forecast waters for current conditions. Seas are on track. Southerly swells will ensure 5 ft seas over the ocean waters into tonight, with eastern waters lingering for most of the night. The non ocean sheltered waters will observe 25 kt gusts into the early evening, so the SCA remains in effect until 8 pm. Will extend the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet through 6 am due to seas, but will maintain 6Z or 2 am expiration time for the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet. On Wednesday, nearshore gusts up to 20 kt are possible, and borderline ocean seas in the 4 to 5 ft range are expected. At this time, do not foresee SCA criteria being met, but stay tuned for possible headlines once the current headlines expire. Southerly swells of 5-6 ft will maintain SCA conditions on the ocean waters this afternoon. Near shore gusts to 25 kt expected this afternoon with deep mixing. There will be sub-SCA conditions until Friday afternoon, at which time seas on the ocean could reach 5 ft ahead of an approaching cold front. Once the front clears the area on Saturday, sub-SCA conditions are then expected for the remainder of the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No flooding impacts are anticipated through Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... With the approach of a new moon, occurring Friday evening, astronomical tides will be increasing through the week and will be running very high, especially during the high tide cycles Thursday evening and Friday evening. In addition, a long period southerly swell Thursday, and an onshore flow Thursday into Friday, will contribute to the tidal departures. Widespread minor coastal flooding is possible with the Thursday and Friday evening high tide cycles across the south shore back bays of western Long Island. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible Thursday and Friday evening across portions of western Long Island Sound. && .EQUIPMENT... KOKX weather radar is scheduled for maintenance starting this Friday June 23rd for a period of 3 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW/PW NEAR TERM...MET/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...BC MARINE...MET/DW/PW HYDROLOGY...DW/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... 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