Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 310006 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 806 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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COLD FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AN ISO SHOWER NEAR WARWICK NY. THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE...POPS TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL BE THE ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY ISO SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP THROUGH THE 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 04Z TO 09Z. SHOWERS WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WERE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 02Z. CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 02Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800 FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 1500 FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. LOW CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800 FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS LIKELY THROUGH 02Z. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AFTER 06Z. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS END 01Z TO 02Z. THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS...AROUND 800 FT...AND A BRIEF CEILING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRI NIGHT...VFR. .SAT-SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW. .MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. .TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.
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&& .MARINE...
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THE SCA FOR THE BAYS AND E LI SOUND HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...MPS/DS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MET MARINE...MPS/DS HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS

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