Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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201 FXUS61 KOKX 222130 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 430 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure north of the region tonight will slides east early Friday morning. Another wave of low pressure moves across the region Friday and Friday night. A warm front moves north Saturday night into Sunday, and a cold front passes late Sunday. High pressure builds early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A weak shortwave slides east tonight, with precipitation coming to an end. The majority of the precipitation remains rain, however thermal profiles continue to indicate the potential for some sleet/snow as the precipitation comes to an end, mainly north of NYC. Across NYC and Long Island, all rain is expected. All precipitation end by midnight with the remainder of the night dry. It will remain mostly cloudy with lows falling into the upper 20s and lower to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Next focus of attention is another wave of low pressure which moves across the region Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Precipitation spreads from west to east Friday morning, with all areas seeing PCPN during the afternoon. 12Z Thermal profiles support rain for the most part, however there is a chance that western Orange County can pick up a couple hours of freezing rain. A lot of this will depend on the timing of the precipitation moving into the area. If the precip moves in slightly faster than forecast, there will be a greater threat for freezing rain. If the precipitation holds off til mid to late morning, there is a chance that surface temperatures could reach freezing, lowering the threat of freezing rain. Right now do not have the confidence and coverage to go with an advisory, and will let subsequent shifts assess trends and issue any as needed. Temperatures are then forecast to warm enough for all rain by afternoon. Rain continues in the evening, with drier weather expected for Friday night. With a frontal boundary remaining near the region Friday night, will leave at least a slight chance of rain showers in the forecast, along with the potential for some patchy fog. Highs on Friday climb into the upper 30s and lower to mid 40s, with temperatures only falling a few degrees for Friday nights lows. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front moves north toward the area Saturday night into Sunday. Showers are possible during the day on Saturday with temperatures in the low 50s. Low pressure will track northeastward across the upper Great Lakes on Sunday while its associated cold front is expected to move through the area on Sunday. This will result in rain chances across the entire region with less than three quarters of an inch of precipitation. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure then builds Monday through Wednesday, with dry conditions expected through the middle of the week. A low pressure system approaches the area Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lows in the low to mid 30s Monday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A weak wave of low pressure tracks well south of the terminals into early this evening as high pressure builds to the north. High pressure moves off the northeast coast Friday as another wave of low pressure approaches from the west. MVFR conditions as periods of light rain continue into early this evening. Light rain is expected to transition to rain and sleet late in the day into the evening from the north and west to the south. There is now more uncertainty as to how much sleet will mix with the rain toward the coast, before the precipitation ends. Confidence in ice pellets/sleet occurring is lowering. MVFR ceilings remain tonight, with IFR ceilings east of the NYC terminals. IFR develops across all the terminals by late Friday morning as light rain moves back into the region, with light freezing rain beginning at KSWF. NE wind 10 to 15 kt diminishes after 00Z. Winds then become E to NE Friday. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Very low chance of ice pellets/sleet this evening before light rain ends early this evening. KLGA TAF Comments: Very low chance of ice pellets/sleet this evening before light rain ends early this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: Very low chance of ice pellets/sleet this evening before light rain ends early this evening. KTEB TAF Comments: Very low chance of ice pellets/sleet this evening before light rain ends early this evening. KHPN TAF Comments: There is a slight chance of ice pellets/sleet this afternoon, with some light snow possible into early this evening before the precipitation ends. KISP TAF Comments: MVFR conditions may lower to IFR early this evening, a couple of hours earlier than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Fri afternoon...IFR, with MVFR possible, in rain. .Sat...CHC MVFR and rain. .Sun...MVFR/IFR in rain. S winds G20 KT. .Mon...VFR. W winds G20 KT. .Tuesday...VFR. WNW winds G20 KT.
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&& .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean waters through Friday morning as easterly winds gust around 25 kt while building seas up to 5-6 feet. Rest of the water should remain below advisory criteria. Winds and seas fall below SCA criteria Friday afternoon and remain that way through Friday night. Tranquil winds and seas are forecast Saturday. Easterly winds increase Saturday night ahead of the warm front and low pressure center. A period of small craft advisory condition winds and rough ocean seas are possible during this time. The winds shift around to the west behind the front Sunday night and Monday. Rough ocean seas will gradually subside as high pressure builds across the area waters on Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week with rainfall amounts generally ranging from a half an inch to three quarters of an inch. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Fig NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...19 MARINE...BC/Fig HYDROLOGY...BC/Fig EQUIPMENT...

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