Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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740 FXUS61 KOKX 010024 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 824 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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The region will remain in between high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest through the weekend. The low will then slowly weaken as it moves toward the region on Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build from the north from Monday through the middle of the week, then retreat to the northeast later next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A closed upper low remains near the Lower Great Lakes as a surface front remains to the south and west. With the setup remaining basically the same as today, expect more of the same tonight, light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog. Gusty NE winds this evening along the coast will gradually diminish later tonight. Temperatures should remain nearly steady or fall only a degree or two tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The closed low will track into Upstate New York while gradually opening into a trough. Light rain/drizzle/patchy fog will become more spotty with time, so only have chance PoP. Temperatures should remain a few degrees below average.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Models coming into better agreement with stacked cutoff low pressure, sitting over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday, to slowly open and move through the northeast Monday and Tuesday as stubborn Western Atlantic ridging weakens and slides SE a bit. At the surface, stacked low pressure sitting over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, with its warm front running from the Mid Atlantic and well southeast of Long Island, will gradually wash out as it moves east Sunday into Monday in response to the the upper level energy. With the main moisture/LLJ axis weakening and lifting NE of the region by Sunday, and most of the moisture relegated to the low levels, would expected mainly drizzle or scattered light showers Sunday into Sunday Night. For Mon/Tue, although low levels should continue to dry, as upper trough energy moves overhead, diurnal iso-sct shower activity possible with cold pool/diurnal instability interacting with residual moisture. Thereafter, models in good agreement with deep layered ridging developing for mid to late week with region experiencing a Canadian Maritime airmass. Meanwhile, the evolution of Hurricane Matthew will be closely monitored, with forecast sensitivity tied to the evolution of upper energy as it moves offshore the east coast mid to late week, the mid to late week evolution of the trough energy coming into the West Coast this weekend, and the development of Matthew itself. Refer to the National Hurricane center forecasts for the latest information. Temps near or slightly below seasonable through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The terminals will remain between high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest through Saturday. Most terminals will prevail IFR overnight with areas of drizzle. Flight categories improve briefly to MVFR after 12z Saturday for a short time. -SHRA will redevelop mid to late morning and forecast guidance is very pessimistic with returning IFR during the day in both visbilities and ceilings. NE winds through the TAF period. Gusts near 25 KT at city/coastal terminals and 20-25 KT at inland terminals. Highest gusts expected through late this evening before diminishing overnight. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories. A few gusts 25-30 kt possible. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories. A few gusts 25-30 kt possible. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories. A few gusts 25-30 kt possible. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories. A few gusts 25-30 kt possible. .Outlook for 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... .Saturday afternoon...IFR/MVFR in rain. .Saturday Night-Sunday Night...MVFR or lower possible with showers. .Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR with isolated to scattered showers possible. .Wednesday...VFR. NE gusts 20-25 kt near the coast.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds were still gusting to 35-40 kt at the offshore buoys and at platforms along the north shore of Long Island, so have extended gale warning until 11 PM for Long Island Sound, and until 2 AM for the ocean. Replaced gale warning with SCA for the Long Island south shore bays, where winds were gusting no higher than 30 kt. SCA criteria could last into Saturday morning for eastern Long Island Sound, the eastern bays of Long Island, and the ocean Waters. Seas to at least 5 feet could linger on the ocean waters through Saturday night. Conditions fall below SCA levels on all waters by Sunday as easterly flow weakens and seas subside. Seas on the ocean waters should start to increase mid week with a persistent NE flow, but there is still some uncertainty on timing/magnitude.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Rainfall of 1/2 to 3/4 inch expected through Saturday night.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Widespread minor flooding continues to be a concern for the south shore back bays of Nassau and Southwestern Suffolk counties, where departures of 1.5-2 feet should cause minor coastal flooding. Across Lower NY Harbor, including associated tributaries in NE NJ, and the Southern Bays of Queens and Brooklyn, there is the potential for isolated minor coastal flooding, with departures of around 1.5 ft expected. Additionally, a persistent easterly sweep of 6 to 10 ft surf tonight will likely cause minor to moderate beach erosion along the ocean shores.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ080- 179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ338-345. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-335-340. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/Maloit NEAR TERM...Goodman/Maloit SHORT TERM...Maloit LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...IRD MARINE...Goodman/Maloit/NV HYDROLOGY...Goodman/Maloit/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

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