Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271642 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1242 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE AREA FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COMBINATION OF STRATO-CUMULUS AND CIRRUS IS OVER THE CWA...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT. UPDATED HIGHS BASED ON 12Z KALY AND KOKX SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO AROUND 850-825 HPA. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80...EXCEPT MID- UPPER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE N/W OF NYC METRO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE H5 FLOW FLATTENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE SFC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW CU. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S IN RURAL LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A UNSEASONABLY WARM...DRY PERIOD WILL BE ON TAP AS THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND... EVENTUALLY LINKING UP WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY GET UP 590 DECAMETERS. THIS IS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE COAST...AND NEAR 90 INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. VFR. SCT-BKN 5-6KFT CU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS BACK TO THE W/WSW AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. SOUTH SEABREEZE NOT EXPECTED FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT SW/SSW SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK. SW FLOW IS LIKELY AT KGON AFTER 16Z AS SEABREEZE HAS A GREATER POTENTIAL TO MOVE THROUGH HERE. LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZES AT KBDR/KISP. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS BACK TO THE W-SW...BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. LOW PROB OF SW/SSW SEABREEZE BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS BACK TO THE W-NW...AROUND 300-320 MAGNETIC...BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. WINDS COULD TURN MORE TO 290 MAGNETIC FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND 21Z OR THEREAFTER. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS BACK TO THE W-NW...AROUND 290-310 MAGNETIC...BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS BACK TO THE W-NW...AROUND 290-310 MAGNETIC...BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SW/SSW SEABREEZE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA SUN AND MON FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/24/DW NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JP MARINE...MALOIT/24/DW HYDROLOGY...24/DW

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