-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
857
FXUS61 KOKX 131748
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
148 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The region lies between a frontal system to the northwest and a
departing high pressure area to the northeast. The associated
cold front approaches Monday and moves across Monday night into
early Tuesday. The frontal boundary then stays within the
vicinity of the region through midweek. A cold front may
approach the area by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stratus deck will continue to plague most into this afternoon,
with breaks at times, but the morning drizzle has come to and
end and predominantly dry conditions expected across the region
today. The area remains between high pressure southeast of Nova
Scotia and a frontal system traversing slowly within SE Canada.

NBM has been too aggressive with its POPs for showers and
thunderstorms. CAMs show a general lack of convection in the
area and lowered POPs from the blended guidance. Best chance of
any activity is far NW locales, mainly Orange County, where late
day shower or thunderstorm is possible.

For temperatures, used the NBM but manually lowered for locations
within Southern Connecticut and Eastern Long Island. These locations
will be on the lower end of high temperatures in the upper 70s while
the warmest spots are in NE NJ and portions of the interior with
highs in the upper 80s.

With the humid airmass, heat indices run a few degrees warmer than
the actual temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the flow becomes more southeast. Clouds remain abundant
and some patchy fog and drizzle may develop along parts of the
region. Otherwise, small chance of a shower or thunderstorm to the
northwest by Orange County NY.

Min temperatures were from NBM ranging only from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

For early next week, frontal system from SE Canada approaches with
an associated cold front. This cold front approaches from Monday and
moves into the area Monday night. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase across a larger fraction of the region. The
front slows down as it exits early Tuesday. Continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Downward trend in POPs Tuesday into Tuesday night as cold front
pushes farther south of Long Island.

Airmass gradually getting warmer early next week with synoptic flow
becoming more southerly. Highs more in the 80s with some places
reaching near 90 for Tuesday. Corresponding heat indices get more
near the low to mid 90s, especially Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***Key Points***

*While still some uncertainty, there is the potential for a heat
wave to continue Wednesday through Friday for many areas with max h
eat index values between 95 and 100 (2-day Heat Advisory Criteria)
for Wednesday and Friday and 100 to 105 possible for Thursday (1-day
Heat Advisory criteria).

*Relatively active pattern with chances for several days of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

A frontal boundary will likely stall just offshore and linger in the
area Wednesday into Thursday. A frontal system may then impact the
area later in the week. Aloft, the pattern stays the same through
the period. Although we are under some high heights, we are somewhat
on the eastern end of a broad upper level trough centered over
central Canada and few shortwaves likely pass through.

With strong Bermuda high in place, a S/SW flow will allow plenty of
moisture to be sent our way. This combined with above normal high
temperatures brings some potential for a heat wave, with heat index
of 95-100 currently expected Wednesday and Thursday, and 100 to 105
for many spots on Thursday. However, there still is uncertainty
especially given the potential for convection and slight
inconsistencies in a late week frontal system among the guidance.

Too early to talk specifics when it comes to severe or flooding
concerns with the aforementioned convection. These details will be
ironed over the next few days. There is plenty of moisture around
with pwats 1.50-2.00+ for much of the period so any convection that
does develop will likely be able to produce heavy downpours. As for
severe, while we are pretty unstable, shear looks weak through much
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak offshore high pressure drifts east through tonight, and
remains offshore through Monday.

MVFR ceilings remain across much of the area, with VFR east of
the NYC terminals and into coastal Connecticut with a light southeast
to south flow. By around 19Z ceilings are expected to improve to
VFR at the NYC terminals. The improved conditions will be
short-lived as ceilings lower to MVFR during the early evening,
and then to IFR east of the NYC terminals late tonight. IFR
conditions are possible late tonight into early Monday morning
at the NYC metro terminals. Conditions improve to VFR around
midday or into Monday afternoon at all the terminals. There is
a lot of uncertainty with the timing of lowering conditions,
and areal extent of IFR, and possible LIFR. Patchy drizzle and
fog is also possible late tonight into early Monday morning.

Light SE winds up to 10kt this afternoon becoming generally
light and variable tonight. A more southerly flow develops
Monday with speeds to around 10kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected due to changes in flight categories through
the forecast period with uncertainties of flight category
changes and timing.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: MVFR ceilings possible early afternoon, then
becoming VFR. MVFR possible in thunderstorms mid afternoon into
the evening. A chance of thunderstorms overnight. A few storms
could produce brief heavy rainfall late Monday afternoon into
the evening.

Tuesday-Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR in showers or thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient continues with sub-SCA conditions on all
waters through midweek.

A strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold
front Thursday night will allow seas to build to 5 ft,
especially from Fire Island to Montauk Point. Additionally, a
relatively active pattern is expected next week with chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms for several days. Winds and
waves will be higher in any storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Possible nuisance flooding Monday into Monday night. Marginal
risk for flash flooding. PWATS get slightly above 2 inches.
Parallel flow low to mid levels allowing training of cells. HREF
showing potential for hourly rainfall rates getting to around 1
inch per hour Monday evening.

In the long term, localized hydrologic impacts are possible due to
thunderstorms from Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For Atlantic Ocean beaches, the rip current risk today and
Monday is moderate with an onshore flow near 10 kt, a 3 ft swell
from the southeast at a 7 to 8 sec, and added onshore swells,
one of which is a long period swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/DR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP/JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...