-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 101203
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
803 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. A COLD FRONT
THEN PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED SLIGHT CHC POPS TO MID-DAY FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS...AS A WEAK WAVE/JET APPROACHES
THE AREA. TREND LIGHT SNOW OVER TO LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WITH TEMPS WARMING SLOWLY. OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS
TO GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE DIVING SE ACROSS NE ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING
PATTERN ALOFT. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF PCPN. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW FOR
THE MOST PART...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON
MIXING TO 925MB AND ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER...A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD. HIGHS AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
ONE WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE MOVING BY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THIS
TIME...AND MOISTURE WON`T BE AS DEEP EITHER. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AND SHORT
LIVED. SO ON TUESDAY...925MB TEMPS ACTUALLY WARM UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THIS WILL BRING US A WARMER DAY UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
AGAIN...A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED...WHICH PUSHES OUR HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...AS
AN AMPLIFYING WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. AS WAS MENTIONED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT NAILING DOWN THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THERMAL
PROFILES...AND SUBSEQUENT P-TYPES...WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE.

THE H5 WAVE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PAC NW COASTLINE WILL BE PASSING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SHORTWAVE IN THE POLAR JET WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
MANITOBA. THE INTERACTION AND PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO PASS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN POSITIONING AND TIMING...BUT 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GGEM ARE SHOWING
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FEATURES...AS OPPOSED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS. BASED ON TRENDS WITH THE 00Z SUITE...DID NOT MAKE DRAMATIC
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT WITH A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AREAS AND RAIN EVERYWHERE
ELSE...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE LOW DEPARTS
AND COLD AIR RAPIDLY FILTERS INTO THE AREA. REGARDLESS...AT PRESENT
THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. STILL...THIS SYSTEM IS
PREDICATED OFF A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF WAVES ALOFT AND SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN
NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY FOR NW AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON THURSDAY. STRONG
CAA WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE...AROUND 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDITIONALLY...THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...HELPING WARM TEMPS BACK UP THROUGH
SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON SATURDAY WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT...BUT LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER CLIPPER TRACKING TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDS WORK THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND
THROUGH 14Z...ACROSS METRO NYC TERMINALS. THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS AND POINTS
EAST WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS LIKELY BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT.

SW WINDS TODAY...BECOMING W BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA
BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA
BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA
BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA
BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 13Z.
LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
14Z. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR. WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE
DAY.
.WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SN AND/OR RA.
.THU...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW G25-30KT.
.FRI...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
WSW FLOW TODAY OF 10-15KT ON THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY ON
TUESDAY AND HELP WINDS VEER W TO WNW. WINDS COULD BE JUST STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE MORNING SUCH THAT SEAS COULD BUILD UP
TO 5 FT ALONG WITH A GUST OR TWO NEAR 25KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN SCA HERE SINCE IF THE CRITERIA
IS MET...IT WILL BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GALES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS FALL
BELOW CRITERIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING SW WINDS COULD BRING
SCA CONDITIONS BACK BY LATE FRIDAY ON THE OCEAN THOUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE REGION.
CURRENTLY...AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS CONTINUES AT THIS TIME AND THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/PICCA
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...JC/PICCA
EQUIPMENT...