Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 181128 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 728 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA BUILDS IN TODAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...AS MULTIPLE LOWS PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF IT MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY...TO OVER NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL REGION IN LESS OF A HEIGHT GRADIENT AND THEREBY LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAX TEMPS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF 3/4 MET AND 1/4 MAV AND ADDED 1 DEGREE OVERALL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE HIGHER TODAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...YIELDING WESTERLY FLOW TO START. HOWEVER...WITH THE INITIAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING LOOSE...SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY FORM WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE OPPOSING THEM. WINDS WILL VEER FROM A SOUTH- SOUTHWEST DIRECTION NEAR THE SURFACE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT BUFKIT PROFILES...THE ESTIMATES FOR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER VARY FROM APPROXIMATELY 800 TO 750MB...LOWER TOWARDS THE COAST AND HIGHER FOR THE INTERIOR. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...THIS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE PROGRESSION FARTHER AWAY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL FURTHER PROMOTE GREATER SUNSHINE AND OPTIMIZE MAX TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF IT MOVE FARTHER NORTHEAST...TO OVER NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN A SPLIT FLOW JET STRUCTURE...WHERE THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...LEAVING A DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND STILL CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH SMALL SCALE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. USED A BLEND OF 1/2 ECS AND 1/2 MAV GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD...BEGINNING TO BUILD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LESS VEERING WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WHILE INTERIOR SPOTS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME AS THE DAY BEFORE. MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THEREFORE FOR A FEW SMALL AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...WHILE A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CRAVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHICH THE REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A DRIER FORECAST WILL STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH WHICH COULD BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE WEEK...AT LEAST KEEPING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. IF THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WEST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD BE DRY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGH DOES BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDINESS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUE. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LGT NW FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTN. VRB WINDS AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE TAF PERIOD. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY...VFR. .WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND WAVES AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOWS PASS WEST AND SOUTH. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE EAST FLOW...STRENGTHENING A FEW KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY ALLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/MET NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JMC MARINE...JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

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