Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 252141 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 541 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will approach tonight. The front will then move across the area on Friday, followed by high pressure this weekend. A cold front will approach early next week, and may then linger nearby until another cold front moves through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Initial weak shortwave could result in isolated showers/thunderstorms this evening, moving west to east. Weak instability remains in place through the night. A second shortwave tracks east, and a few showers/thunderstorms could move in again after midnight. However, most places will remain dry. Otherwise, surface high pressure remains to the south as a weak surface trough moves through. Southerly winds diminish as the night progresses, and expect warm temperatures overnight due to persistent southerly winds and broken to a times overcast cloud cover. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to the middle 70s. There is a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches into this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge builds this time frame, with high pressure remaining well to the south, and a weak cold front passing across the area during the day Friday. 12Z model suite seems to be in good agreement on a slightly faster cold frontal passage for western zones. What this means is lower humidity levels during the afternoon hours as winds shift to the west/northwest. In spite of hot temperatures in vicinity of NYC metro/urban NJ, slightly lower dew points will preclude 100 degree heat indices that are needed for issuance of a heat advisory. As such, no heat advisory is planned at this time. Higher humidity will occur ahead of the front, over portions of southern CT and Long Island. However, temperatures will be a tad cooler there due to southerly winds ahead of the front. As for rain, still would expect isolated to possibly scattered coverage just along the front, per high resolution models. Best chance during max heating and highest surfaced based instability would be from southern CT southwestward across NYC metro and Long Island for a time, with lowering chances as the afternoon progresses. Dry Wx Friday night as much drier air moves in and the front passes east. High temperatures Friday will range from the mid 80s along the coasts of eastern Long Island and SE CT, to the lower 90s in and around NYC metro. At night, temps should fall into the 60s and 70s across the area, still quite warm for this time of year, late summer. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models continue to be in good agreement for the the long term period. This period begins with weak surface high pressure over the region, which pushes off the New England coast Sunday. Aloft, a ridge will build in while a closed high is centered over the Mid- Atlantic states. A surface cold front approaches from the west late Sunday into Monday, slowly crossing the region late Monday into early Tuesday morning. This frontal boundary should then stall and meander over/near the area into Tuesday night before the next cold front pushes through on Wednesday. As far as temperatures are concerned, with the lack of any real strong cold air advection, it will be above normal through the period, with normal highs now in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s, with near 90 in the New York City metro area possible on Monday. Humidity levels will be on the high side, but nothing too extreme as the cold front does not make it completely through the region. Heat index values should remain below 95 through the long term. One thing to watch is the tropical disturbance currently just north of Hispaniola. If this system develops, it could get drawn up into the frontal boundary that moves through our area Wednesday, after potentially impacting the Gulf states. The operational models have this system traveling the cold front and passing south of our region late in the period. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty, and if further model runs show this cold front to be slower to move through, the area could be impacted with some rain from the system. However, it is near the end of this time frame, so for now, it is something to be watched. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front over the Ohio Valley will slowly track towards the region tonight, and through the area on Friday. A few showers are possible across the NYC metro terminals and to the north and west. No impacts expected. Although a few additional storms are possible with the frontal passage on Friday, coverage is expected to be too low at this time to include in the TAFs. There is the potential for some stratus development off of the ocean late tonight and Friday morning. If this does develop, ceilings around 1000 ft can be expected. The best chance for occurrence is east of Islip. Southerly flow through this evening, veering to the west after the passage of a pre-frontal trough on Friday, then northwest behind the front. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to around 20 kt are likely through 00Z. KEWR TAF Comments: A wind shift to the west and northwest with the passage of showers occurred, and winds are expected to go back to southerly around 22Z. Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible through 00Z. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible through 00Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible through 00Z. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are likely through 00Z. .Outlook for 18Z Friday through Tuesday... .Rest of Friday...VFR outside of scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. Winds becoming northwest by evening. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR with sea breezes. .Monday...Southwest flow. Potential cold frontal passage with a few showers and thunderstorms. .Tuesday...VFR with northwest flow.
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&& .MARINE... Gusty southerly winds diminish this evening. SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters, and added south shore bays due to the gusty winds that are anticipated initially. Winds do diminish ahead of a weak cold front late tonight and through Friday. A shift to the west will occur behind the front late Friday and Friday night from west to east. Rough ocean seas will subside late tonight and through Friday night. Sub-advy conds generally prevail otherwise through the day Monday. However, potential remains for long period (generally periods of 10- 18 seconds) SE tropical swell on the ocean from Sunday through at least Wednesday. Seas could build to 5-6 ft mainly Monday night through Tuesday night. Wind gusts should remain below 25 kt. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected into and through the long term period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ345-350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MET MARINE...JP/PW HYDROLOGY...JP/PW

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