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000
FXUS61 KOKX 160555
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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ON THE HEELS OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS ON FRIDAY...USHERING
IN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE COMPLICATED AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST. FOR NOW...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IN EXPECTED FOR THE TRI-
STATE AREA.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED TO THE SOUTH AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE DRY. HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AT THE COAST AND
THE NYC METRO BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND...THE LOWER 50S AT THE
COAST...AND THE LOWER 60S NYC METRO.

WITH LIGHT SW FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALREADY
LOW TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG..ESPECIALLY FOR LI
AND COASTAL CT. SOME DRIER AIR DOES WORK IN JUST ABOVE THE SFC
LATE TONIGHT AND THIS MAY PREVENT FOG FROM BEING TOO
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE FROM THE NORTH. WE SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND
FOR HIGHS LOOKED GOOD CONSIDERING FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.

EXPECTING A DRY PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SFC TROF WILL PASS OFFSHORE FRI MRNG. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS
AND MIXING SUFFICIENT TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LWR 70S ACROSS WRN
ZONES. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPS ACROSS CSTL CT AND LI.

HIGH PRES RIDGES SWD THRU THE CWA ON SAT. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN FRI WITH LESS MECHANICAL MIXING. OTHERWISE THE FCST
IS FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
AT THE COASTS.

MODEL CONSENSUS THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND CONTINUES TO DO SO
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT.

THE FCST FOLLOWS ROUGHLY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE FOR
TWO REASONS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE GFS HAS A LOT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHICH FEEDS INTO THE MID LVL FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR SUN.
WITH A LARGE 1030 HI STRETCHING FROM LABRADOR TO ME...THE CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCE ON THE PATTERN SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. SECOND...AN EVOLVING
UPR LOW OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD RESULT IN A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING. AS A
RESULT...THE FCST INDICATES DRY WX ON SUN...AND MAINLY FAIR WX WITH
LOW CHCS FOR SHRA AND TSTM ACTIVITY THEREAFTER. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT HOWEVER...A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED
SUN-WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN
ITS WAKE ON THU.

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON COASTAL
TERMINALS WHERE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO AND
JUST AFTER COLD FROPA...WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM WEST-EAST
THROUGH ABOUT 8Z.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS TONIGHT. LOW-MED CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION TODAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE AREA.
THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFTS MAY BE OFF AN HR OR TWO AND GUSTS
MAY LINGER AN HR OR TWO LONGER THAN FORECAST. THIS WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE...EXPECT IT TO BE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDS.
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&&

.MARINE...
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WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN RIGHT
AROUND 5 FT. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE LATEST GUIDANCE AS SCA ON OCEAN
WATERS MAY BE LOWERED SOONER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING 5FT SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA
LVLS FRI-SAT. THE FCST INDICATES CONDITIONS BLW SCA LVLS SUN-TUE.
THERE IS HOWEVER REDUCED CONSENSUS WITHIN THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A MORE ACTIVE WX PATTERN COULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST A 5 FT OR GREATER SWELL ON THE OCEAN AND ELY FLOW ALL WATERS
THAT COULD REACH 25 KT DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.
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&&

$$