Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 232346 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 746 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND PASS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PA/NY WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AM APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAIN AREA TO WATCH APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN PA...WHICH WORK INTO NE NJ/NYC METRO AROUND 8PM. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS LINE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK SHEAR/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO ANY TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG ANY E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST OF NYC AND SW CT INTO A MORE STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A STRATIFORM RAIN...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND BEACHES ON THURSDAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST AND AT 23Z WAS MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT WAS PRECEDED BY THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS FROM 02Z WEST TO 10Z EAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 00Z TO 02Z AT THE NYC METRO AREA TERMINALS AND 02Z TO 04Z JUST TO THE EAST OF NEW YORK CITY. AFTERWARD MAINLY SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER...ENDING 05Z TO 10Z. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. GUSTS 15 KT TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 13Z THURSDAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 07Z. VFR THURSDAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 07Z. VFR THURSDAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 05Z. VFR THURSDAY. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 05Z. VFR THURSDAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 07Z. VFR THURSDAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 02Z TO 08Z. VFR THURSDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. .SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .HYDROLOGY... THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...ON AVERAGED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO ANY TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG ANY E/W OUTLFOW BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY AN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS...THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MET MARINE...BC/FIG HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG

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