Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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953 FXUS61 KOKX 190749 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FOG SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT VSBYS ARE STARTING TO DROP TO 1-2 MILES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE CT AND NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER. WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG FOR THE LAND AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK TROUGH LIES OVER EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PA/NY WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...MAKING TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT. LINE OF SHOWERS BREAKING UP AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY EITHER TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTIES OR SOUTH TOWARDS THE DELMARVA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEHIND THAT INITIAL LINE OVER EASTERN PA CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THAT PRE-FRONTAL MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE SFC INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL ONLY MENTION SCT THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEPARTS. COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS THROUGH TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRY CONDS ON TAP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS COOL OFF ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARM UP ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRY. SOME GUIDANCE BRUSHES THE COASTAL ZONES WITH RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTING A DRY PASSAGE AND INCREASING WIND GUSTS WITH IT. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND A LITTLE WARMER ON FRIDAY. THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT LEADS TO COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS AT MOST. A RETURN SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE THEN PUSHES HIGH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMALS ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH IT. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE TWO FRONTS...HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT FOR A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. IFR AND LIFR CIGS AND VSBY CONT TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM EASTERN PA EAST ACROSS NJ. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR AT WRN TERMINALS BY AFTN...BUT REMAIN IFR TO MVFR AT ERN TERMINALS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECOME SW AROUND 10 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT AFT SUNRISE FROM W TO E. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...COLD FROPA IN THE EVE WITH LOW CHC SHRA/TSRA IN THE EVE. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW G20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. .SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE...
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HARD TO TELL HOW LOW THE VSBYS ARE ON THE WATERS DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AND LOW STRATUS OBSCURING ANY FOG ON THE WATERS...BUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON THE WATERS RATHER THAN CANCEL IT...SO WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM. ONCE THE SUN RISES AND WE CAN GET A BETTER IDEA OF WHAT IS GOING ON...WILL REEVALUATE. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. S WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATER TODAY...AND THEN TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 25 KT ON THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...AND 1-2 FT ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AROUND 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...GC MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...MPS

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