Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 262124 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 524 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES SE OF THE REGION INTO EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS EAST AND COLD FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE PUSH SE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS. STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO ERODE OVERNIGHT DUE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DESPITE WEAKENING WINDS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS. IF SKIES CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS. IF STRATUS HANGS TOUGH THOUGH...THE FROST THREAT WILL DIMINISH. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR FROST ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY LIFTING WED NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW DURING THE PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT ANY MORNING LINGERING STRATUS TO CLEAR OUT WED MORNING...WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. AFTERNOON COASTAL SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY WED NIGHT OUTSIDE OF URBAN CENTERS UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FROST FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WARRANTS A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER THE SW TO S 1/2-3/4 OF THE CWA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVER HOW FAR TO THE S THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...MAKING FOR DIFFERENCE IN AREAS IMPACTED. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SHORTWAVE COULD PASS FAR ENOUGH S...THAT THE AREA STAYS DRY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA WAS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE REGION IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE SLOWER CMC/ECMWF...SO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY AREAS N/W OF NYC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SLOW MOVING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH SLOWER ECMWF...AS THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE MERIDIONAL...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION IN SYSTEMS. AS A RESULT HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY CWA WIDE. FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. TEMPERATURES START OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS MONDAY-TUESDAY. NOTE...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PLAY A LARGE BEARING ON HOW WARM/COLD IT ACTUALLY ENDS UP BEING MONDAY/TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE OF BIT OF CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL THIS IS RESOLVED. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE SWD AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES ALONG IT TONIGHT. CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS LONG ISLAND THE NEXT HOUR OR 2. N-NE WINDS EXPECTED INTO WED DECREASING BELOW 10 KT THIS EVENING. SLY WINDS DEVELOP WED AFTN WITH TRUE SEABREEZES POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF NYC...WHICH ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THROUGH 00Z AS WELL. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER S OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CONDS TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH VFR MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE...09Z TO 12Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS DETERIORATING TO IFR THROUGH 00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDS DETERIORATING TO IFR THROUGH 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE EVE PUSH. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR OR LOWER THROUGH THIS EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. .SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE LATE IN PRECIPITATION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THRU TONIGHT...WITH SCA WINDS GUSTS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 25KT POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND INTO THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY- SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW COULD BUILD SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... 1/4 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND THROUGH EARLY EVE. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV NEAR TERM...MALOIT/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...24 MARINE...MALOIT/NV HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/NV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.