Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 071538 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1038 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves well to the east this afternoon as high pressure builds tonight into Thursday. A couple of cold fronts will move across the region Thursday night through early Saturday. High pressure briefly builds into the region. Low pressure then approaches Sunday and moves across the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low clouds will linger most if not all the day. Latest radar trends suggest lingering light precipitation coming to an end from W to E by around midday. Based on latest temperature trends have lowered highs today a few degrees at most locations. Otherwise, ridging builds in from the west. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Upper trough begins to approach from the west. At the surface, ridge builds, but gives way to approaching cold front late Thursday as low pressure moves well to the north. Patchy clouds tonight, then an increase in clouds is expected Thursday ahead of the trough, and associated PVA. The weather will remain dry though along with near normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A series of weak shortwaves will rotate around a closed low over Canada, bringing a cold front and surface trough moving through the Mid Atlantic on Friday. This may result in isolated to scattered rain/snow showers, along with a cold air mass. Temperatures will be a good 5 degrees below normal on Friday. The upper low moves east Friday night with weak upper ridging building in for Saturday. The upper flow become nearly zonal across the continental United States through the weekend. Expect highs on Saturday to be a good 7-10 degrees below normal. With high pressure moving off the northeast coast Sunday a return flow develops and warm advection sets up into Monday. The next shortwave to affect the area will move on shore of the Pacific northwest Friday night and quickly move across the country. Cyclogenesis occurs across the central plains Sunday into Sunday night with the low tracking through the Great Lakes. Precipitation Sunday night may start as snow inland and transition to rain Monday and will be dependent on how quickly the warmer air moves into the area. If a warmer layer moves in aloft before the low level cold air is scoured out there will be a chance for some freezing rain Sunday night. With the uncertainty did not include in the forecast at this time and leaned toward a warmer solution. Drier weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday, although some scattered rain or snow showers are possible on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure continues moving out to sea today. High pressure will build in from the west tonight. IFR conditions should begin to improve to MVFR through 18z. Slow improvement to VFR is then expected late this afternoon into the early evening. A few pockets of -dz may reduce visibilities to around 4 miles through 18Z. Winds will continue to back to the NW into the afternoon, under 10 kt. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of improving flight categories this afternoon and evening may be off by 1-2 hours. Wind direction may average around 310 magnetic this evening. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of improving flight categories this afternoon and evening may be off by 1-2 hours. Wind direction may average around 310 magnetic this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of improving flight categories this afternoon and evening may be off by 1-2 hours. Wind direction may average around 310 magnetic this evening. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of improving flight categories this afternoon and evening may be off by 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Ceilings may fluctuate between IFR and MVFR through 18z. KISP TAF Comments: Timing of improving flight categories this afternoon and evening may be off by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Friday...Isolated rain/snow showers NW of the city could result in brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Gusty W-NW flow 10-20KT with G25-30KT, highest Thursday night and Friday. .Friday night...VFR. NW winds 15-20KT. G25KT in the evening. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Winds have fallen below 25 kt and should remain so into tonight, but seas remain 1-2 ft above wavewatch guidance. As a result, have converted the SCA on the coastal ocean waters to an SCA for hazardous seas. There is some doubt as to whether the seas will be below 5 ft completely by 6pm, but will weight for entire 12z model suite to come in before deciding on whether or not to extend the headline into the evening hours. Winds diminish further tonight as the pressure gradient remains relaxed. Westerly winds increase later Thursday as low pressure passes well to the north and the pressure gradient tightens across the waters. Small Craft conditions are expected Thursday night on the ocean waters, and increase to near gale force during the day Friday. For the non-ocean waters, SCA gusts can be expected on Friday. SCA gusts continue on the ocean waters into Friday night, then subside late as high pressure begins to build to the west. Saturday morning winds and seas are expected to be below SCA levels on all the waters as high pressure continues to build. Winds and seas increase once again early next week as another low pressure system moves across the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Generally dry weather is expected over the next few days. There is a chance of a widespread 1/2 inch or more of precipitation from Sunday night through Monday. && .EQUIPMENT... The New York City transmitter, KWO35, is off the air. Time for a return to service is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/PW NEAR TERM...Maloit/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...DS MARINE...BC/Maloit/PW HYDROLOGY...BC EQUIPMENT...

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