Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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769 FXUS61 KOKX 051232 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 732 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY. LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT 11Z...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DEEPENS FARTHER THIS MORNING. SNOW WAS ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE TWIN FORKS WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING SHORTLY. BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY EAST OF NYC. AND...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE REPORTED IN HUDSON AND BERGEN COUNTIES. THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES NEAR THE 40/70 AROUND MIDDAY AT AROUND 1002MB AND DEEPENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY. TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL. OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS AS EXPECTED. INTENSITY WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AT THE CITY TERMINALS AND KBDR AND 14Z TO 18Z AT KISP/KGON. EXPECT 1-2" RATES PER HOUR...THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE MOST LIKELY AT KGON. IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO MVFR BRIEFLY AND BACK TO VFR AS SNOW TAPERS OFF W-E DURING THE AFTN. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: NYC METRO TERMINALS AND KBDR...3-5 INCHES KISP/KGON...5-7 INCHES. KSWF...2-3 INCHES. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR/LIFR THROUGH 18Z OR SO. RETURN TO VFR MAY BE +/-1-2 HOURS. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. .TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
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&& .MARINE... FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. MINOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT. SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY THAT TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... TODAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF A TENTH NORTH AND WEST TO JUST UNDER AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND FALLS AS RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ALL SNOW INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ007- 008-011-012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005-006- 009-010. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075- 176>179. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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