Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271747 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE STRONG NOREASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING. LINGERING WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SRN CT AND ERN LI. MAINLY FOR PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINTER WX ADV CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DISORGANIZED BANDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES. THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRES SE OF NANTUCKET WILL TRACK NWD INTO THE GULF OF ME TNGT AND INTO THE MARITIMES ON WED. POCKETS OF SNOW...MAINLY LGT...CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR...HOWEVER SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW. VSBY IN THE SNOW GENERALLY IFR OR LOWER...HOWEVER BREAKS TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED. NW WINDS AROUND 330 TRUE THRU THE TAF PERIOD. STRONGEST FLOW THRU THIS EVE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MDT SNOW TEMPO MAY ONLY BE OCNL. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW TEMPO MAY ONLY BE OCNL. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW TEMPO MAY ONLY BE OCNL. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW TEMPO MAY ONLY BE OCNL. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW POCKETS REDEVELOPING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MDT SNOW TEMPO MAY ONLY BE OCNL. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED...VFR. NW WINDS 15-25KT. .THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW. .FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE MRNG WITH SNOW. NW WINDS 20-30KT. .SAT...VFR. .SUN...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE. GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO WED. CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR EASTERN LOCALES...AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST. ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176>179. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345- 353-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM... AVIATION...JMC MARINE...GOODMAN/PW HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

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