Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221026 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 626 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE AND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH JUST SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...20-25MPH AT THE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A GENERAL MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND USED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A COOL NW FLOW...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS. EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW. MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WNW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST LEFT OF 310 MAG EARLY THIS MORNING...VEER TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY MID MORNING...THEN BACK TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH THU... .TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS. .WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT. .THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW. && .MARINE... WAVEWATCH IS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND SWELL...WITH THE SWELL PEAKING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TODAY. SEAS WILL STILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH OCEAN SEAS REACHING 6-8FT BY 18Z AS AN OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WIND ALSO INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE A SCA. SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/LN NEAR TERM...LN SHORT TERM...LN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...NV MARINE...BC/LN HYDROLOGY...LN

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