Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281443 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1043 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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999 HPA SFC LOW NEAR CORTLAND NY AS OF 10 AM. COLD FRONT IS ENTERING OUR WESTERN FCST AREA IN JERSEY. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER SEEN IN LOWER LEVELS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH DRY MID AND HIGH LEVELS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LOW NEAR ROCHESTER WITH CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN. CAP AROUND 800 HPA SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM POPPING BEFORE AFTERNOON AND THUS REMOVED POPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. ONCE CAP WEAKENS...CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE ALLOW MODELS SUGGESTING SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED (AT BEST) IN NATURE THIS AFTN -HAVE LOWERED POPS. FOCUS STILL TO THE NORTH WITH GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS CLOSER THE THE UPPER LOW PASSING TOT HE NORTH. WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, THINK THE THREAT FOR SEVERE IS LOW. WILL REMOVE WORDING FROM ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. MAIN WX STORY IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS WE MIX UP TO 800-850 HPA. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NW TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS DUE TOT HE HEATING OF THE DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM THAT COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS TO AREAS NW OF NYC METRO. S WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT...THEN VEER W THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS COULD LAST UNTIL 16Z-17Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .TUE-THU...VFR. .FRI...AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME. THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...TONGUE/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM... AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...

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