Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 192100 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 400 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure passes to the south through Saturday, while deepening low pressure tracks across Eastern Canada. A weak cold front will pass through the area Saturday night. High pressure will build to the south Sunday. A back door cold front will pass through Sunday night, then return north as a warm front on Monday ahead of a strong frontal system for Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will return for mid week and remain through the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Outside of some cirrus clouds this evening, it will be quiet as deepening low pressure tracks across eastern Canada and high pressure passes off the Southeast coast. This will keep the area under a southwest flow and a milder night, about 10 degrees warmer. Lows will range from mid 20s well inland, to the lower and mid 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Southwest winds ramp up quickly on Saturday with gusts 20 to 30 mph, highest near the coast. A downslope W-SW flow combined with strong warm advection will allow highs to get into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Preferred to stay a few degrees above guidance. Trailing cold front works across the area Saturday with diminishing winds as high pressure builds in from the west. Lows will still be above normal by about 7 degrees.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry and unseasonably mild conditions expected on Sunday with temperatures in the mid 40s. A cold front approaches from the west Monday before tracking across the area Monday night into Tuesday. Showers are expected Monday morning ahead of the boundary with the potential of some wintry mix mainly across interior locations. Moderate to heavy rain will then overspread across the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds in behind the frontal system on Tuesday. Dry and more seasonable temperatures expected for the middle of the week through Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered to the southwest of the region through tonight. VFR through the TAF period. West-Southwest winds around 10kt with an occasional gust to 18 kt. Winds become SW everywhere this evening. Winds aloft (around 2kft) increase tonight, resulting in some low level wind shear. Have included a period overnight into Saturday morning for this. Surface wind gusts should develop Saturday morning, with gusts to around 25kt. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to 18 kt possible early this evening. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to 18 kt possible early this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to 18 kt possible early this evening. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to 18 kt possible early this evening. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to 18 kt possible early this evening. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to 18 kt possible early this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday...VFR. WSW winds G20-25KT. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday...Chance of MVFR or lower in -SHRA. S winds G20KT late day. .Tuesday...IFR in rain. LLWS. S winds G25KT morning, W winds G30- 35KT aftn. .Wednesday...VFR. Gusty west winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
With deepening low pressure passing to the north through Saturday and high pressure tracking off to the south, WSW winds will gradually ramp up through Saturday morning with SCA conditions developing on the ocean waters tonight and the remaining waters on Saturday. Occasional gale force gusts will be possible on the ocean waters through early afternoon. SCA conditions will likely subside quickly by saturday evening as high pressure builds in from the west and low pressure passes east of the Canadian Maritimes. Seas above 5 ft are likely to linger into the first half of the night. Below small craft advisory conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Winds and ocean seas expected to increase to small craft advisory levels Monday Night into Tuesday ahead of approaching cold front. Small craft advisory conditions likely continue Tuesday Night through Wednesday, with potential for a period of Gale conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... A frontal system passing through late Monday night into Tuesday has the potential to bring around inch of rain. No significant hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST Saturday night for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.