Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 232147 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 547 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The remnant low of Jose will dissipate well to the southeast over the next couple of days, while high pressure to the northwest will be in control through the first half of next week. High pressure over the region weakens Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west, and Hurricane Maria is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move to off the Carolina coast. A cold front will pass through Wednesday night into Thursday as Maria tracks to the northeast. High pressure builds in from the west Friday. A weak trough of low pressure may affect the area next Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Temperatures in the NYC metro area were running a little higher than forecast, and updated to increase temperatures into this evening. Also, dew points across northeastern New Jersey have mixed out into the mid and upper 40s, so updated for those. Clear tonight with diminishing winds. Could see some river valley fog late. Lows will range from the lower 70s in NYC, to the 60s most elsewhere, to the upper 50s in the valleys well N/W of NYC and in the Long Island Pine Barrens, per the cooler of the GFS/NAM MOS numbers in consideration of radiational cooling. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Expect a continuation of unseasonably warm and dry conditions as heights aloft continue to rise, with sunny skies. Both MOS guidance and GFS/NAM mixing up to 857 mb in the afternoon, plus a 2-3 more degrees, support high temps from the mid 80s to lower 90s, except for the immediate coast where highs will be in the lower 80s. See CLIMATE section for potential records. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will produce a moderate rip current risk. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The longwave pattern will continue to be highly amplified Monday with a strong upper ridge over the eastern states, with a trough across the western states. Dry weather and warm conditions will remain in place Monday and Tuesday. The eastern ridge begins to weaken Tuesday into Tuesday night as a shortwave digs into the northern plains and western Great Lakes, and Maria moves to east of the Carolina coast. This shortwave is not as amplified as previous forecasts have indicated, however, the shortwave does move quickly through the northern stream. Another shortwave does rotate into the long wave trough toward the end of the week. The upper trough and surface cold front will lift Maria to the northeast and out to sea for the end of the week. The area will return to more seasonal levels, and possibly to below normal by next weekend. There is considerable uncertainty with the second shortwave and a weak surface trough moving into the ridge. At this time will have slight chance probabilities for Saturday. Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast information on Maria. Due to long period swells from Maria, there will be a prolonged period of rough surf at the ocean beaches, with the likelihood of a high risk of rip currents. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west through the day on Sunday as Post Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to weaken as it drifts south and east away from the area. VFR through the TAF period. A few gusts to around 15 kt are possible over the next hour or so, primarily at KGON. otherwise, northerly winds will continue to decrease late this afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds then return out of the NNE Sunday morning at 10 kt or less. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday-Monday...VFR. .Monday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible in scattered showers. && .MARINE... Seas west of Fire Island Inlet have fallen below 5 ft and will likely remain below 5 feet until late Sunday or into Sunday night. The hazardous seas advisory has been cancelled. A SCA for hazardous ocean seas still continues until 11 PM from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria are unlikely to exceed 5 ft in these areas until Sunday night. Kept SCAHS in effect E of Moriches Inlet, as the time window seas less than 5 ft appears smaller, and extended into Monday as these swells build. Long period swells are expected to remain on the ocean waters Monday and through the upcoming week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed through the period. Winds on the ocean waters remain below small craft advisory levels until Thursday night when gusts may approach 25 kt on a northwest flow behind a cold front. Across the remainder of the waters winds and gusts are expected to remain below advisory levels Monday through Thursday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next week. && .CLIMATE... The following are record high temperatures for Sunday September 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature. Record High Temperature Forecast High Temperature ----------------------------- ------------------------- Central Park........89 (1959) 91 LaGuardia...........89 (1959) 90 Kennedy.............88 (1970) 88 Islip...............83 (2009) 85 Newark..............92 (1959) 93 Bridgeport..........87 (1959) 86 The following are record high minimum temperatures for Sunday September 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature. Record High Minimum Temperature Forecast Minimum Temperature ------------------------------- ---------------------------- Central Park........74 (1970) 71 LaGuardia...........73 (1970) 71 Kennedy.............71 (1970) 69 Islip...............69 (1970) 65 Newark..............74 (1970) 68 Bridgeport..........71 (2011) 67 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET NEAR TERM...Goodman/MET SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...FEB MARINE...Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY...MET CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.