Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 101458 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1058 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS THEN DEVELOP NEARBY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 14Z...COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WAS RESTING JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS THE EASTERN END OF LONG ISLAND. THERE ALSO COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM THE RELATIVELY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND THEREBY HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE DAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/GMOS WAS USED FOR HIGHS...YIELDING MOSTLY 80S...HIGHER END ACROSS INTERIOR WHERE THEY WILL HAVE THE AID OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS THROUGH MID DAY AS REFLECTED BY THE LATEST OBS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THIS EVENING WITH INSTABILITY LOWERING AS TEMPERATURES COOL. THE HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD...ALLOWING FOR LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES FURTHER LIMITING INSTABILITY. OUTSIDE OF A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...A DRYING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF GMOS AND MET AND WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHT TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH CONTINUED RIDGING ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...ALBEIT COOLER AT THE COAST WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PREFERRED THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY BASED ON MIXING PROFILES...WINDS...AND SKY COVER. ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SATURDAY`S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY TRACKS NE INTO QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES AT THE SAME TIME...PASSING THROUGH MOST LIKELY DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE FRONT...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SYNOPTIC LIFT DOESN`T LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME WITH THE UPPER JET PROGGED TOO FAR TO THE NW...HOWEVER A FEW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PROBABLY PASS THROUGH AND SUPPLY SOME LIFT. CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS TUES AFTN/EVENING. SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEAR NORMAL...BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS 65-70. A DRIER AIR MASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MORNING FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. VFR INTO THIS EVENING. AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER OR TSTM IS POSSIBLE NEAR KSWF. ALSO...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...WILL KEEP CONDS VFR DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY EXCEPT FOR KGON WHICH SHOULD STILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT. NE-ENE AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFT SE-S THIS AFTERNOON VIA COMBO OF THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...DIRECTION IS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING BUT MAY BECOME N-NE LATE TONIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LATE DAY OCEAN SEA BREEZE COULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FCST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON... .FRI...MAINLY VFR. A LATE DAY TSTM POSSIBLE NORTH/WEST OF THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. .FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS/FOG WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS. && .MARINE... AS OF 15Z SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EXPECTING SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SCA CONDITIONS RETURN MON NIGHT AND TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW BUILDING SEAS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY TSTMS MON AND TUE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HVY RAIN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM/SEARS SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JC/PR HYDROLOGY...JC/JM

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