Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270147 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 847 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THEN STALL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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FORECAST ON TRACK. JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT TREND. CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN PA AND THE OH VALLEY SHOULD START TO STREAM IN LATER TONIGHT. RATHER LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE ENABLED BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THEREFORE RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN MORE EFFECTIVE THUS FAR. ADJUSTED LOWS DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES AS RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME HIGHER WINDS ALOFT BUT GENERALLY ABOVE 3KFT AND ON THE LAND THINK THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT. LOWS FORECAST RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE RURAL AND INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE UPPER 30S FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND NYC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DESERT SW FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN WILL SHEAR OUT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEARBY SE CANADA BY SAT NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT. A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPING ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S...AND UPPER 50S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER URBAN NE NJ. THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT... WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS LATE ESPECIALLY WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER/MID 40S IN NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING FLATTENS LATE THIS WEEKEND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. ONE BIG FEATURE TO NOTE NEXT WEEK IS THE VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S WITH MAGNITUDE OF AT LEAST 1050 MB. LIKEWISE...A VERY COLD SOURCE OF AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. THIS AIR MASS GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. WE START OUT STILL WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE TREND TOWARDS COLDER AIR BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS IS FROM THE REALLY STRONG HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTH AND EAST. THE REGION STAYS IN A GENERAL NORTH FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH...HELPING TO ADVECT IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BUT SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP AS THE WAVES MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...THESE SAME MODELS HAVE THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION...A LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SETTING UP THAT COULD WET BULB AND COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BECOMING MORE OF A SNOW MIX...MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE AMOUNTS ARE VERY LIGHT THOUGH AND GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH ANY POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BEING MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...PRECIP REALLY TRENDS DOWN LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL A COLDER TREND. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT WSW SFC FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SAT NIGHT...VFR. .SUNDAY...VFR...LOCALIZED MVFR INLAND. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN. .MON-WED...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... INCREASING W FLOW COULD BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD ALSO BRING OCEAN SEAS E OF MORICHES INLET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING MID WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ATTM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/JM NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JP SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...PW MARINE...GOODMAN/JM HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JM

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