-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 072335
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
635 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THAT LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST...AND SHOULD BE
NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT...AND EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN/AROUND NYC WILL
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. OTHERWISE...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH
IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND THE HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE AVERAGE LOWS FOR SUNDAY.

LOW PRES OVER THE GULF COAST MOVES INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATE IN
THE DAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS QUITE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATING
PRECIP MAY NOT MAKE IT TO NYC AREA UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY...AND ANY INITIAL
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY EVENING.

INITIALLY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING
SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 0C. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH...ENOUGH WARM
AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING
TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN...AND SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. TEMPS WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY MORNING...AND
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRES PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...FOR THE MOST PART...SNOWFALL WILL BE 1" OR
LESS FOR NYC/NEARBY NE NJ/LONG ISLAND/S CT BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2"...BUT UP TO
3" IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. IF MORE WARMER AIR CAN
NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE MORE
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
HIGHER.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LITTLE OR NO ICE FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL
CT/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ. FOR THE INTERIOR...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.05" ICE ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT
SNOW/ICE POTENTIAL IN HWO.

RAIN THEN CONTINUES MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NEAR THE COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY MON EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH. WILL THEN
BE A CLOSE SHAVE AS FAR AS LIGHT SNOWFALL ON TUE IS CONCERNED...AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG THIS FRONT. WHILE
THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION OF A LIGHT SNOWFALL IS PLAUSIBLE...THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS CENTER OF THE POLAR VORTEX
DROPS TO HUDSON BAY...AND IN HANGING BACK SRN STREAM ENERGY BACK
IN THE SW/BAJA CALIFORNIA. SO...HAVE FCST A MORE SUPPRESSED
SOLUTION VIA A 2-TO-1 ECMWF/GFS BLEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND CHANCE POP JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND SKIRTING EASTERN LONG ISLAND TUE EVENING.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS WAVE AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN AND MAINTAINS A W-NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR.
AS H5-10 THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 516 DM BY THU MORNING...LOWS
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S...WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING FREEZING IN NYC ON WED...AND ALL
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 20S DAYTIME THU. ONE LAST REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL GLANCE THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SO ANY
MODERATION DURING LATE WEEK WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HIGHS ON FRI
STILL BELOW AVG BUT TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 30S IN NYC.

HIGHS ON SAT WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THOSE OF FRI
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...AND AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING EAST SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING CIRRUS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS.

VFR SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TOWARD EVENING.
SNOW SHOULD COMMENCE AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE 00Z ACROSS NYC METRO AND
KISP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR. SNOW...THEN SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE COAST
AND SNOW/SLEET/FZRA ACROSS INTERIOR. E-ESE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ALONG COAST. RUNWAY ACCUMS ONE TO TWO
INCHES AT KSWF...AND UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR EARLY...THEN RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FOR THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR.
.TUE...MVFR OR BELOW WITH -SN.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR BELOW WITH -SN FOR EVENING. THEN VFR.
.WED-WED NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WIND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING
DAY...DECREASING AT NIGHT.
.THU...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 7 PM FOR
MARGINAL CONDS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 KT...AND SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5 FT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND
EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDS STARTING THIS EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...AND WINDS/SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY.

SCA CONDS LIKELY MAINLY ON THE OCEAN MON NIGHT AFTER A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE SO TUE NIGHT INTO WED ON ALL WATERS AS
ARCTIC AIR FLOWS IN. LINGERING SCA CONDS THEN EXPECTED ON THE
OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS WED NIGHT. A BRIEF PD OF QUIET CONDS
EXPECTED ON THU...BUT THEN SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
THU NIGHT AS ONE LAST REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR GLANCES THE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRES PASSING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL
RESULT IN 1/2-3/4" LIQUID QPF. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS
EQUIPMENT...