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318
FXUS61 KOKX 090419
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1219 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls near the forecast area through Thursday night,
then either remains stalled to the south Friday into Saturday or
washes out altogether. Another frontal system may pass to the north
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Convection has shifted out of our CWA and have cancelled the
rest of the flood watch. The slow moving frontal boundary will
linger overnight so cannot completely rule out additional
showers. It will remain muggy with patchy fog possible,
especially towards day break.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Somewhat cooler temperatures on Wednesday and lower dew points may
preclude the need for a Heat Advisory. Highs are expected to be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, with index values approaching the mid
90s. So, it is marginal, but Heat Advisories may need to be issued
once again for Wednesday. Temperatures cool slightly more by
Thursday.

With the cold front in the vicinity, shower and thunderstorms are in
the forecast for both days, though just a slight chance for
Wednesday and better chances for Thursday, as weak areas of low
pressure ride along the boundary and aid in any weak lift that might
be present with the front. SPC has a small portion of the area in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, which includes southern
portions of NE NJ and SW portions of SW portions of NYC. Flooding
will also continue to be a concern as the air mass really does not
change much and very humid conditions remain in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stalling front eventually pushes south of the area Thursday night
as a midlevel shortwave and upper low exits northeast in Canada.
This front will then either remain stalled nearby or washout
altogether into the weekend. At the same time, most guidance show a
weak ridge building Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately, global
guidance really varies on solutions Sunday into Monday. Some bring
another frontal system Sunday into Monday night to our north while
others keep this system too far north to impact us, opting for
building high pressure at the surface instead.

Generally southerly flow is expected for most of the long-term
period. This should keep dewpoints and atmospheric moisture high and
continue chances for daily showers and thunderstorms Friday through
Monday. Mainly slight chance POPs east with low-end chance POPs west
where daily instability from daytime heating could be stronger.

Temperatures through the long-term period will generally be close to
just above climatological norms. Highs each day will be in the mid
80s to low 90s. Lows each night will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
However, the difference between NBM`s 25th and 75th percentiles for
max temperatures is about 15 degrees Saturday through Monday,
further highlighting the uncertainty and disagreement among the
guidance in the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak cold front stalls over or near the terminals through the
TAF period.

Showers and thunderstorms done for all terminals for the night,
with some showers lingering for KGON. Showers and thunderstorms
return Wednesday afternoon. Brief MVFR possible for some
terminals tonight, otherwise VFR.

High variability in wind direction through the TAF period due
to proximity of the front and showers/thunderstorms. In
general, a NW flow by Wednesday morning, then shifting back to
the S/SW after 18Z Wed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty with wind direction through the TAF period with
nearby front and showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Uncertainty with coverage and timing of showers/thunderstorms
Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wed night-Fri: Periods of shwrs and tstms possible. Mainly VFR
outside of shwrs and tstms.

Sat-Sun: Mainly VFR. A chance for aftn/eve shwrs and tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A diminishing SE swell will allow seas to diminish this evening.
SCAs continue form Fire Island Inlet through Montauk. The SCA from
Fire Island inlet to Moriches inlet may be need to be cancelled
within the next few hours. Otherwise, the SCAs are in effect until 2
am. Thereafter, with a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves stay
below SCA criteria through Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains in place for much
of the area on Wednesday and Thursday with a continued
localized flash flooding threat.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate rip current risk has been forecast for Wed for all
the ocean beaches due to incoming 3-4 ft/7-sec swell. It is
possible that a short fused high risk may be needed for Wed
afternoon at the Suffolk beaches if AM beach reports there come
in on the high side.

The moderate risk continues for all but the NYC beaches for Thu.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...JP/DS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DBR/JT
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...