-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 071131
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
631 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES
LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE HAS HELPED CREATE AN INVERSION BELOW
900MB...AND MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE OCEAN IS GETTING TRAPPED
BENEATH IT. ABOVE 900MB...LOTS OF DRY AIR UNTIL THE CIRRUS LEVEL.
NOT SEEING MUCH OF ANY KIND OF LOW LEVEL LIFT...SO DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CHANCES ARE THAT WE
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER FORECAST IS TRICKY. THERE WILL BE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION...RESULTING IN A CLOUDY DAY FOR SOME AREAS...AND MORE
LIKELY OCCURRING FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONGER AND SCOUR OUT SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE. SO MAINLY SOME CIRRUS AND FEW/SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
FOR THESE SPOTS. MAV/NAM MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR...AND BLEND OF THE
TWO WERE USED FOR TODAY`S HIGHS. ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH HEADS NORTHEAST. ON THE OUTER FRINGES
OF THIS SYSTEM ...SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AND DEEP ENOUGH ONLY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND FOR ANY
CHANCE OF PCPN. THERE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...SO ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE
SHOULD HOWEVER BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT FOR ICE NUCLEATION OR SEEDER
FEEDER MECHANISMS. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CLEARING FOLLOWS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE TRI STATE
AREA ON SATURDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT COULD BE
ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LACKING...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD AGAIN FOR
HIGHS...WHICH WILL FINALLY CLIMB BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FAST WEAKLY TROUGHED UPPER FLOW OVER
THE NE US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NE. THE
FIRST OF THESE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THEN ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. WITH POLAR VORTEX REMAINING OVER
HUDSONS BAY...NOT EXPECTING ANY ARCTIC INTRUSIONS DURING THIS
TIME...WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH THE INTERACTION
OF PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET.
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD CONTINUES WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF PHASING AND
RESULTANT TROUGHING...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN PAC ENERGY ENTERING
THE WESTERN US LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING AROUND A SE
SINKING POLAR VORTEX. WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD. A GENERAL
SCENARIO OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY TUE...AND THEN ACROSS TN VALLEY WED...PASSING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
A POLAR FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD SCENARIO IS
PREFERRED...WITH THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW DETERMINING ALL SNOW VS
A WINTRY MIX. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRES PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OF 2500-3000 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO LOW END VFR.

MVFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS.

E-NE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TURN W-NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER TIL 18Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER TIL 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER TIL 18Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER TIL 18Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER TIL 18Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR MAY LINGER TIL 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS PICK UP TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH TRACKS
NE. GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS
SHOULD BUILD UP TO 5 FT BY DAY`S END. THE LOW PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THEN HEADS FARTHER OUT TO SEA DURING SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...A LINGERING ESE SWELL WILL HELP KEEP SEAS UP IN SPITE OF A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. FEEL THAT WAVEWATCH COULD BE AT
LEAST A FOOT TOO HIGH WITH ITS WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST ON SATURDAY...
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT IS A LIKELY
SCENARIO. HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO
INCLUDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A NW FLOW
SUN...OTHERWISE SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE MS
VALLEY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS CONTINUES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
EQUIPMENT...