-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 152117
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
517 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will gradually dissipate over the
area through Saturday. High pressure builds to the north into early
next week. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Jose will drift
northward in the Western Atlantic waters this weekend into the
middle of next week, with the potential for it to come close to
the East Coast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products
for more details on Jose. By late week, high pressure builds
across the area once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers are expected to dissipate early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating and instability. Moist air
combined with light to calm winds should allow fog to develop,
at least patchy in nature. Low temperatures will be above
normal.

A moderate risk for rip current development continues into this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure remains over the area Saturday and Saturday night.
At the same time, the flow aloft remains slightly cyclonic and
with only weak shortwave energy. Thinking is that diurnally-
driven iso showers develop, mainly over inland areas where
higher CAPE values will be.

Similar to tonight, any shower activity ends early in the evening
followed by some areas of fog overnight.

Temperatures Saturday and Saturday night will run above normal.

There will be a moderate risk for rip current development along
the Atlantic beaches for Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE MONITOR NHC FORECASTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL
CYCLONE JOSE: WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

BEACH HAZARDS INCREASING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND

Long period swells from tropical cyclone Jose will increase the
threat for dangerous rip currents, high surf and dune erosion this
weekend into the mid week.

A blocking pattern is expected to develop as a long wave trough
intensifies in the west, with the high pressure downstream
amplifying across the east. Although seasonable temperatures will
persist for Sunday, a gradual return to onshore flow as a surface
high builds to the north and the tropical system approaches from the
south will allow temperatures to be well below normal through at
least mid week. Besides the potential for isolated afternoon showers
and thunderstorms mainly north and west of the city on Sunday, all
eyes will turn to the developing tropical system that at the moment
is still well south of the area.

Once again, considerable uncertainty exists with the expected track
of tropical cyclone Jose. The track will largely determine the
intensity of any winds, coastal impacts and rain. As of now, the
official NHC wind speed probabilities now show a 10 to 20 percent
chance of tropical storm force winds (39 to 73 mph) developing on
Tuesday. It`s important to note that typical forecast track errors 4
to 5 days out generally range from around 175 to 225 miles,
respectively. Despite the uncertainty, long period swells ahead of
the system will allow surf to build and increase the risk of
dangerous rip currents. The NWS will continue to monitor the
progression of Jose closely. Please stay tuned for subsequent
updates.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A trough of low pressure will remain across this evening.

Mainly VFR through the evening. S-SE winds will remain 10 kt or
and become light and variable overnight. Isolated shower still
possible NW of the metro terminals.

Patchy stratus and fog should redevelop tonight with the best
chance outside of the NYC terminals. Any MVFR or IFR conditions
should improve between 14-16z Saturday morning.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low chance for MVFR/IFR stratus and fog
overnight.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low chance for MVFR/IFR stratus and fog
overnight.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low chance for MVFR/IFR stratus and fog
overnight.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low chance for MVFR/IFR stratus and fog
overnight.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of IFR conditions overnight could be
off by 1-2 hours.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of IFR conditions overnight could be
off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday-Sunday...Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening showers or thunderstorms, mainly north and west of NYC.
.Monday...MVFR possible in developing showers.
.Tuesday...Mainly MVFR in showers.
.Wednesday...Any MVFR conditions improve to VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds will prevail across all waters into the weekend.
Swells will however increase, and ocean waters are expected to
prevail with seas up to 5 or 6 ft starting Saturday night. Have
therefore issued a SCA for hazardous seas starting Saturday
night, and this will likely need to be extended in time.

Long period swells ahead of tropical cyclone Jose are expected to
maintain seas to SCA-levels through the rest of the weekend.
Depending on the track and intensity of the system, seas may
continue to build further to dangerous levels through at least
mid-week, with winds increasing to SCA or possibly gale-force by
then. Please continue to monitor NHC forecasts for official
information about tropical cyclone Jose.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through at least
this weekend.

Any hydrologic impacts from developing tropical cyclone Jose depend
largely on forecast track and intensity. Please continue to monitor
NHC and WPC forecasts for official information about Jose.
www.nhc.noaa.gov
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will rise this weekend into the middle of next
week with the approach of a new moon. These rising water levels
combined with incoming energetic swells building from Jose, will
increase the threat for high surf, dune collision, and localized
overwashes along the ocean beachfront Sunday through early next
week. Coastal flooding may also become an issue early next week. The
magnitude of these threats will depend on the future strength and
track of Jose.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 PM Saturday to
     6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MD
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...JC/MD
HYDROLOGY...JC/MD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...