Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
809 FXUS61 KOKX 252228 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 628 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through the region tonight. High pressure builds to the west Tuesday and moves off the southeast coast Wednesday into Thursday. A weak cold front approaches the region Friday and will linger into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for most of the area. Convection impacting the area, with gusty winds and flooding. Drier air slowly advects in late tonight with weak cold frontal passage. Areas of fog possible across outlying areas in warm and muggy airmass. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quasizonal flow prevails as cold front settles just east and high pressure builds. With 850 hpa temps still running in the high teens...deep mixing...downslope flow and full sunshine...expect temps to quickly rise into the lower to mid 90s. Noticeably lower dewpoints should keep heat indices close to air temps...but close enough for heat advisory for NYC metro. Sea breezes should be limited to late day and immediate south coasts...if at all. High pressure builds Tuesday night. Lows range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s in and around NYC metro. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds, and zonal flow aloft remains. Sfc front approaches Thursday ahead of mid/upper level weak trough, and it appears that the upper trough amplifies just a bit. The front may settle nearby through the weekend. This sets the stage for unsettled weather with chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Temperatures will average above normal Wednesday and Thursday, then temperatures settle back closer to normal thereafter. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening. Until 00Z, most thunderstorms will be across NYC terminals and terminals to the north and west. By 23-00Z, thunderstorms will be approaching KBDR/KISP/KGON. Mostly MVFR/IFR visibilities and perhaps some MVFR ceilings as well within showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mainly VFR for the TAF period. S-SW flow 10-15 KT through this evening, with winds shifting to the west or west-northwest overnight after cold front passage. Winds within convection could gust at times up to 35-40 kt and even some possible localized gusts up to 50 kt before 00Z. MVFR or lower visibility in fog possible for KHPN, KSWF, and KGON overnight into early Tuesday. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in wind forecast. Amendments likely to refine timing of thunderstorms and associated MVFR/IFR conditions which could vary 1-2 hours from forecast. KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in wind forecast. Amendments likely to refine timing of thunderstorms and associated MVFR/IFR conditions which could vary 1-2 hours from forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in wind forecast. Amendments likely to refine timing of thunderstorms and associated MVFR/IFR conditions which could vary 1-2 hours from forecast. KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in wind forecast. Amendments likely to refine timing of thunderstorms and associated MVFR/IFR conditions which could vary 1-2 hours from forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in wind forecast. Amendments likely to refine timing of thunderstorms and associated MVFR/IFR conditions which could vary 1-2 hours from forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in wind forecast. Amendments likely to refine timing of thunderstorms and associated MVFR/IFR conditions which could vary 1-2 hours from forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Afternoon-Thursday...VFR. .Thursday Night-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible in a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A cold front approaches the waters, then slowly moves through the waters tonight. High pressure builds behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday. A Frontal boundary then approaches and remains nearby through the remainder of the week. Sub SCA conditions are expected through the remainder of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Flash flooding likely for urban areas due heavy rain from a large complex of thunderstorms through midnight. There is the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the area Thursday through next weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ072>075-176- 178. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JM/DS MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...PW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.