Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 151646 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1146 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS SLOW TO DEVELOP. THE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOSED LOW THEN TRACKS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH STATES BY FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES ARISE ON STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE BY NEXT WEEKEND PER LATEST GLOBAL MODELS. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEARBY AND MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. SFC TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE HIGH MOVES EAST...THEN REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC LOW OVER TEXAS MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES...TRACKING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. DID RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY PER MODELS/ENSEMBLES. MAINLY DRY THURSDAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. THEN RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STAY TUNED. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THEN AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND. THEREAFTER...BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST WPC NUMBERS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY. VFR WITH ONLY FEW-SCT025-030. THESE CLOUDS MAY LOWER TO SCT015 THIS EVENING...AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS TODAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS TODAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS TODAY. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS TODAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS TODAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS TODAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .TUE-WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TUE MORNING...THEN POSSIBLE IN RAIN FROM AFTN THROUGH WED. .WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT. .FRI...VFR. && .MARINE... BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...THEN COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NW WINDS PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SEAS BUILD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND SLOWLY LIGHTEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED WAVE WATCH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO FORECAST DATABASE ANYWAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUARTER TO PERHAPS A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... HYDROLOGY...

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