Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261441 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 941 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHIFTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVELS HAVING TROUBLE MOISTENING UP AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS THAT MOST OF WHAT REACHES THE SURFACE REMAINS OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SLIGHT CHC NW TO CHC SE. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING. TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL QUITE COLD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. REMOVED TEMPO FOR -SN FROM ALL BUT KISP AND KJFK...AND RAISED THOSE TO VFR. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...COULD REMOVE THOSE IN FUTURE TAFS. CEILINGS GENERALLY 5-9 THOUSAND FEET THROUGH TAF PERIOD. N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE (020-050 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE (030-060 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON... .FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS AND 15 KT WINDS. BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON MONDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW/BC NEAR TERM...JC/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MALOIT/DS MARINE...PW/BC HYDROLOGY...PW/BC

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