Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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820 FXUS61 KOKX 221453 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 953 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the area from west to east through early afternoon. High pressure builds in Wednesday night through the end of the week. A cold front crosses Saturday night, with high pressure building in from the west for the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rain is quickly coming to an end this morning as the cold front approaches the area, with the back edge of the steady rain just exiting the city. A few stray showers are possible from the city west through late morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the day. Across the rest of the area, rain will continue to come to an end from west to east through this afternoon. Skies will clear in the wake of the front, resulting in a partly to mostly sunny afternoon across much of the area. At the same time, winds will increase and become gusty out of the northwest as cold air advection sets in. After highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s this morning, temperatures will remain nearly steady or slowly fall through the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Clear, with diminishing winds overnight allows for radiational thermal decoupling in the rural areas. A blend of MOS was used with near freezing in the NY Metro for lows forecast. Sunny and chilly, but with a light wind for Thanksgiving. Cooler NAM/ECMWF blend seems best for temps (about 8 degrees below normal). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure at the surface, pushes off the East Coast late Friday into Friday night as a warm front over the Eastern Great Lakes lifts well north of the area. Warm air advection doesn`t seem to kick in until Friday evening, so dry and continued cool for Friday, but slightly warmer than Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 40s. Another cold front approaches the area late Saturday and passes through Saturday night. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will bring temperatures to normal levels to above normal levels, in the upper 40s to upper 50s. 00Z GEFS keeps it dry. A secondary cold front moves through on Sunday with a reinforcing shot of cold air. Some instability with the colder air aloft associated with the upper level trough may produce some light rain showers. High pressure then keeps the area dry through the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A coastal low passes to the east of Long Island this afternoon. High pressure then builds in from the west into tonight. Any sub VFR, mainly MVFR ceilings/vsbys, improve quickly late this morning and afternoon from west to east. Rain eastern terminals ends 17-20Z from west to east. Winds shift NW and increase by late morning/midday with G20-30KT. Winds taper of during the evening, with gusts abated by around midnight. Winds diminish to less than 10KT throughout overnight, with non-city terminals becoming light and variable late. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in winds to the right of 300 True/310 Magnetic this afternoon. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is green...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in winds to the right of 300 True/310 Magnetic this afternoon. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is green...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in winds to the right of 300 True/310 Magnetic this afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed, direction and gusts could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed, direction and gusts could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KISP TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed, direction and gusts could be off +/- 1-2 hours. There is a low chance that IFR, MVFR conditions could linger 1-2 hours longer than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Friday night...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible Thursday morning. SW winds G15-20KT possible Friday night, mainly at eastern terminals. .Saturday-Saturday night...MVFR possible. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Saturday night. .Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds G20-30KT possible. && .MARINE... SCA continues for the ocean waters as seas will be slower to subside. A cold front will be moving east of the forecast waters this afternoon as high pressure builds to the west, with SCA gusts likely all waters in its wake. 5 to 6 ft waves on the ocean waters on Thursday as a northwest flow shifts to the west-southwest. Waves will diminish Friday, generally coming down below 5 ft for most areas on the ocean by Friday afternoon. Waves increase again on the ocean late Friday night as a southwesterly flow sets up ahead of an approaching cold front, diminishing Saturday night. Winds should generally remain below 25 kt until Sunday afternoon as a northwest flow strengthens behind the passage of a cold front. Winds should remain above 25 kt from Sunday evening throughout the rest of the long term. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain this morning 1/4-3/4" with the potential for up to 1.5 inches across Long Island to SE CT. Some urban ponding possible. Otherwise, No hydrologic problems are anticipated the next 7 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tongue NEAR TERM...FEB/Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...Maloit/PW MARINE...FEB/Tongue HYDROLOGY...FEB/Tongue

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