Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161805 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 105 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure strengthens offshore as it tracks across the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday, while high pressure builds in from the west. A weak cold front moves through Sunday, with another frontal passage likely early next week. High pressure builds in for midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure starts to build in from the west today as low pressure continues to lift into the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient will remain tight for a good part of the day, resulting in another windy day with gusts 30-40 mph. Aloft, a 500 mb shortwave will pivot around the departing low, moving across the region. Expect this wave to produce partly to mostly cloudy skies along with the a slight chance of a snow shower this afternoon. With the gusty northwest flow, temperatures should not rise much today. Expect highs today from the mid 30s to near 40 per earlier MOS guidance, and also supported by OKX 12Z raob and fcst model soundings suggesting temps only rising a few degrees from 12Z readings. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As high pressure continues to build into the region, the pressure gradient will gradually relax. This will allow the winds to gradually diminish. However, with less wind and mostly clear skies, another cold night is on tap, as lows fall into the teens and 20s. The dry weather continues into Friday as high pressure remains just west of the region. Expect sunny skies with seasonable temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. A MAV/MET/ECS blend was used for short term temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A broad upper level ridge will encompass the eastern two thirds of the country through early next. A series of shortwaves will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across eastern Canada, passing to the north Sunday into Monday, sending cold fronts across the region. There are differences amongst the global models with the amplitude of these features and the southern extent of the cold air push. There has though been a trend toward cooler conditions Monday into Wednesday. That being said, we are only talking about temperatures returning to near seasonable levels after an unseasonably warm weekend. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the cold air push behind a backdoor cold front on Monday, but even the GGEM and GFS are at or below normal temperatures by Tuesday. This should only be a brief cool down as heights build by mid week. Additionally, conditions will be dry through the period. An approaching frontal system now looks to weaken Tuesday into Wednesday while moving into the upper ridge. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure continues to build into the area from the west. Gusty NW winds will continue through this evening before beginning to diminish tonight. For this afternoon, gusts to around 30 kt will continue at the city and coastal terminals, with gusts to around 25 kt at outlying terminals. Gusts will start to diminish at all terminals tonight, eventually falling off completely at outlying terminals after midnight. NW flow will continue during the day tomorrow at 10-15 kt, decreasing late. VFR through the period. Scattered clouds around 4000 ft will continue to develop this afternoon. Ceilings may become broken at times this evening, primarily after 20-21Z. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Winds mostly likely remain just south of 310 magnetic through the afternoon. Ceilings may become broken at times at around 4000 ft, primarily after 20-21Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds mostly likely remain just south of 310 magnetic through the afternoon. Ceilings may become broken at times at around 4000 ft, primarily after 20-21Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds mostly likely remain just south of 310 magnetic through the afternoon. Ceilings may become broken at times at around 4000 ft, primarily after 20-21Z. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 30 kt possible this afternoon. Ceilings may become broken at times at around 4000 ft, primarily after 20-21Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Ceilings may become broken at times at around 4000 ft, primarily after 20-21Z. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 30 kt possible this afternoon. Ceilings may become broken at times at around 4000 ft, primarily after 20-21Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 kt. .Saturday...VFR. .Sunday...VFR. NW gusts up to 20 kt. .Monday...VFR. NW gusts up to 20 KT. .Tuesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Gale warning remains in effect today for the ocean waters, and SCA elsewhere. Both were extended into this evening, and the SCA out east through the night. A tight pressure gradient over the waters will produce northwesterly winds today. Expect gusts to 35 kt on the ocean waters and gusts to 25-30 kt on the non-ocean waters. Max ocean seas will up to 7 ft. Conditions improve on Friday as high pressure approaches the waters. Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean as winds gust close to 25 kt and max seas remain close to 4-5 ft. SUB SCA conditions are expected through the weekend with a weak pressure regime and fairly strong inversion over the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days as any snow melt will be gradual. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ335- 338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ330-340. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...BC/Goodman SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...FEB MARINE...BC/DW HYDROLOGY...BC/DW

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