Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211832 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 232 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHRA HAVE FLARED BACK UP OVER SE CT ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY. LINE OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PA IS DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS EAST. BASED ON THIS...TRENDED FORECAST TO DRY WEST WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CIRRUS SHIELD HAS BLOWN OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE WAS SOME CLEARING EARLIER...AND HOLES IN CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST HAVE FILLED. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT IDEA OF MUCH...IF ANY...IN THE WAY OF CLEARING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO AT MOST UPPER 70S DUE TO THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60 INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE LOW HAVE MOVED BACK IN AT KISP/KGON...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TONIGHT UNTIL COLD FROPA...THOUGH THEY MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TOWARD EVENING FOR 2-3 HRS BEFORE COLD FROPA. TIMING OF FROPA LOOKS TO BE 05Z KSWF...05Z-06Z NYC METRO...AND 07Z-08Z FARTHER EAST...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. WNW WINDS...WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC...AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND OR JUST OVER 20 KT...SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z MON. GUSTS COULD START A COUPLE HRS SOONER THAN FCST...AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KT IN NYC METRO BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH THU... .MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT INTO EARLY EVENING. .TUE-THU...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THERE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...BC/MALOIT/MET HYDROLOGY...BC

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