Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261104 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 704 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FEW UPDATES WERE MADE THIS MORNING FOR TEMPS/SKY COVER. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF NYC ALONG WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. WITHOUT THE EARLY SUN...MANY AREAS ARE RUNNING QUITE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLOUD LAYER AND UPDATED THE TEMPERATURES TO A COOLER TREND. EXPECT THIS FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF BY 13Z AT THE LATEST. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE START OUT WITH A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT THE COAST RELATIVELY COOLER AS USUAL...BUT STILL AT LEAST IN THE 80S FOR THE MOST PART. FOR INLAND AREAS...850MB TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SURFACE TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S AS WELL...SO EXPECTING WARMEST SPOTS TOP OUT AT AROUND 90. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AWAY FROM THE CITY AND ADJACENT SUBURBAN AREAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ISN`T VERY DEEP...BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. SBCAPE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO TOP 1000 J/KG...UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL. THERE COULD NEVERTHELESS BE SOME DECENT GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT FORM. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 17-18C...AND SEA BREEZE INITIATION AND PROGRESSION WILL BE LIMITED THE BY APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATE WEST TO SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MUCH THE CITY AND SOME INLAND SPOTS. THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO IN NE NJ REACHING 95. EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS EXPOSED TO SOME FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID 80S. SURFACE DEW POINTS MIGHT HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT SHOULD STILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES NO MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOWS SETS UP FRIDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN DISCREPANCIES START. 25/12Z ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKER AND ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS THE OUTLIER. GFS/CMS KEEPS IT DRY UNTIL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SAT AFT/EVENING. HARD TO SAY IF IT IS A WARM FRONT COMING FROM THE SOUTH...OR JUST ENOUGH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON TROUGH THAT IS POPPING SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE AS TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT IS PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES. GENERAL MOSG25/MEN/MEX BLEND WAS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH TEMPS SUN WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THU AND FRI NIGHT AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT AND SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUSEARLY THIS MORNING AT COASTAL TERMINALS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN AT COASTAL AND INTERIOR TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING S/SE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE AFTN. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT S/SW WINDS TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 19Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED...PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS EARLY WED MONRING OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR. .WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA. .THU-SAT...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVELS AS EARLY AS LATE-DAY WEDS ON THE OCEAN DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THIS SWELL...BUT WITH THIS BEING A LATE THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. OCEAN SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO 25 KT ON THURSDAY BUT SEAS LOOK TO BE THE REAL FACTOR FOR SCA CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROBABLY DO NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THEREAFTER...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/LN NEAR TERM...JC/LN SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...LN AVIATION...NV MARINE...JC/LN HYDROLOGY...JC/LN

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