Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271951 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 351 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A MID AND SURFACE LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH OF THE SURFACE AND MIX LAYER CAPE WAS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CLEARING HAD OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY. STORM MOTION WAS TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...SO THE SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH ISOLATED AND LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ENDING THIS EVENING. HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS EAST. SO BY LATE TONIGHT WILL BE DRY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD WITH A SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDING IN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HOT TEMPS THE FOCUS FOR WED AND THU. UPR LOW TRACKING SEWD FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUPPRESSING HEIGHTS A BIT. THE GFS HAS LATCHED ON WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...MADE NO CHANGES ATTM TO TEMPS WED AND THU. HX AT LEAST 95 IN THE CITY BOTH DAYS AND COULD APPROACH 100 NJ ZONES AND SWRN NY ZONES. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE THU NGT AND ENDS FRI PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS SOLN. FAIR WX RETURNS LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF HIPRES SETTLES IN AGAIN. MOST OF THE SHRTWV ENERGY REMAINS ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE ONGOING FCST. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYS AND UPR TROF PROGGED FOR SUN NGT AND MON. ONLY SCHC POPS FOR THIS AS AGAIN MOST OF THE FORCING COULD BE N OF THE CWA.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR THOUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR KSWF IN THE TAF. ELSEWHERE...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHRA/TSRA. S-SE FLOW 5-10 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS THIS AFTN FOR KJFK/KLGA/KEWR. WINDS TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. 5-6SM HAZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL TERMINALS. TSRA POSSIBLE THU AFTN/EVE. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS WED-SAT. EXCEPTION COULD BE THE WRN OCEAN INVOF THE HARBOR ENTRANCE WITH AN ENHANCED SLY FLOW LATE WED AND WED NGT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SLOW MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT-MON.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015... LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH NEWARK....................100/1949.................97 BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................91 CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................95 LA GUARDIA.................97/1949.................97 J F KENNEDY................99/2002.................92 ISLIP......................96/2002.................93 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BC/JE MARINE...JMC/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET CLIMATE...

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