Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 180159 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 959 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE LATER TUESDAY...IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE EAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF MAIN 700-500 HPA TROUGH...WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE AND THICKENING OF CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY SPRINKLES...SO HAVE REMOVED FROM FORECAST. UPDATED LOWS WITH BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURE/LAV GUIDANCE. STILL SHOULD RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES IF NOT SLIGHTLY MORE ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FRONT AXIS OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL ALSO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS BASE OF UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASING W-SW FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. CAA IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS WILL BE 8-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...TRIGGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AND WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. VFR. SW WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH NO IMPACT TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. W-NW WIND WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ENDING IN THE EVENING. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. .MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. && .MARINE...
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MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL EXTEND SCA ON THOSE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10 FT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY. WILL HOIST A SCA FOR LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI BAYS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CARRY IT THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE THERE POSSIBLY BEING A LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THOSE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. WANT TO AVOID CONFUSION CAUSED BY MULTIPLE HEADLINES DURING THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY. SEAS DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/FIG NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MET MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/FIG HYDROLOGY...MPS/FIG

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