Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290530 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 130 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND A JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND OVER THE OCEAN WATERS S OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 2-3 AM AND THEN THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE LIFTING MECHANISM ALOFT AS DIAGNOSED WITH THE FRONT LEFT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING GOING INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH THE CHC FOR SHOWERS RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST... WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY. UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY. DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE FROM W TO E. E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI NIGHT...VFR. .SAT...VFR. .SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. .TUE...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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CONTINUED QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA FRI. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS AS FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JC MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/PW HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW

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