Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221048 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 648 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through most of the week...with only a weak cold frontal approach late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure over the Ohio river valley will slowly build east today. Seasonably warm and dry today with a gusty nw flow of 20 to 25 mph...locally 30 mph. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... High pressure builds overhead tonight into Tuesday. Light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s to lower 60s tonight with high temperatures on Tuesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Northern extent of southern upper ridging gradually builds into the region through midweek...flattening a bit late week into weekend. At the surface...sprawling high pressure builds in from the west through midweek...and then gradually centers itself south and east late week. In terms of sensible weather...mostly sunny and mainly dry with temps a few degrees above seasonable norms and gradually rising humidity mid to late week. Models signal a northern stream shortwave approaching and moving through northern New England Fri/Sat. An associated weak cold front approaches Thu Night/Fri and then crosses by Friday night. With forcing remaining well to the north...and limited instability...coverage of any associated shra/tsra will likely be limited...diurnal...and mainly across interior. For the weekend...high pressure builds in from the west with a return of sunny...dry and above seasonable temps. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will start to build in today. Front has yet to clear KGON, so expect tempo thunder with IFR vsby and gusty winds there before 08Z. Brief MVFR cigs at KBDR right at 06Z should scatter quickly. Otherwise high confidence VFR forecast through the rest of the TAF period. Fairly high confidence in wind forecast. Post-frontal NW winds are gusting close to 20 kt mainly in NYC metro. These gusts should abate at most sites by 07Z-08Z, then come right back with daytime heating by about 12Z-13Z. NW winds around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt expected through much of the day Monday, diminishing and veering more northerly toward evening. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts this morning could start an hour sooner than forecast. KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts this morning could start an hour sooner than forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts this morning could start an hour sooner than forecast. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts this morning could start an hour sooner than forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts this morning could start an hour sooner than forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Gusts this morning could start an hour sooner than forecast. .Outlook for 06Z Tuesday through Friday... .Late tonight-Thursday night...VFR. .Friday...Chance of afternoon showers/tstms NW of the NYC metro terminals, with brief MVFR conditions possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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Occasional gusts to 25 kt across nearshore waters today. Otherwise...below small craft advisory conditions through mid to late week as high pressure dominates the waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather is expected through the week and into weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV NEAR TERM...FIG SHORT TERM...FIG LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...FIG/NV HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV

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