Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 200548 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 148 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFFSHORE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AT 10-15 WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS MAY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS AS PRES RISES RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S NORTH AND WEST. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S AREA WIDE AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH BEST FORCING WITH A PASSING N STREAM SHORT WAVE STAYING WELL TO THE N...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REDUCE DOWN TO 15-20KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COUPLED WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED...TWEAKED DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THURSDAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE MAIN INFLUENCE. AT THE LEAST...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP. SO PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THIS PART OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN RESTORED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT SW. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING...WILL FAVOR THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH...OR AT MOST PASSES THROUGH PART OF THE CWA BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH. IN ANY CASE...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOTH FRONTS NEARBY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME CAPE PRESENT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT INTO DAYBREAK BUT WILL BE MORE CONTINUOUS DURING THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT...HIGHEST DURING THE DAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING. .THU-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. .FRI-FRI NIGHT...VFR. NW GUSTS 15-20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. .SAT-SUN...VFR. && .MARINE... WIND AND SEA FORECAST ON TRACK. WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR SHORE IN THE NY BIGHT REGION...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS...HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR SHORE AROUND NYC/WESTERN LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE HOWEVER BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO FALL TO 30-40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON YESTERDAYS GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1/2 INCH...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC NEAR TERM...GC SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JM MARINE...GC FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...GC

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