Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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358 FXUS61 KOKX 251559 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1159 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak low pressure troughs forming over land each day will move offshore each night through Tuesday night, while strong high pressure remains well to the southwest. The high will eventually build in on Wednesday. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move through at night. A cold front approaching from the north on Friday will stall nearby into the weekend, with unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A shortwave passes north of the region today. At the surface, weak trough develops this afternoon, with SW or S flow ahead of it, and westerly flow behind it. Plenty sunshine this morning will give way to a few afternoon clouds, with generally dry conditions. Higher resolution models continue to indicate isolated shower activity this afternoon. Some isolated showers have started to develop across eastern PA, so will include some isolated showers in the forecast for the afternoon, mainly across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Temperatures look quite seasonable, and a few degrees lower than yesterday. Readings in the 80s expected across the region, with locations east of the trough slightly cooler due to onshore winds this afternoon. There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Suffolk ocean beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sfc trough moves east tonight, with winds veering to the west/NW. Yet another weak sfc trough develops over the area Monday. Aloft, heights fall to the west of the area as next shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. Any shower weakens this evening, with dry conditions anticipated tonight. On Monday, more of the same, with morning sunshine giving way to a few afternoon clouds. Cannot rule out an isolated shower interior Monday. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast tonight and Monday, with lower humidity levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal temperatures through mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday as low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold front sags south into NY State on Friday. The front becomes stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will be "unsettled." Upper trough axis approaches Tuesday, passing Tuesday night. Perhaps a tad more instability Tuesday and pseudo cold FROPA could trigger a shower. Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday. Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have POPs in for TSRA. Looks to remain unsettled through the holiday weekend at this time. Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above Friday into the weekend. No heat issues foreseen though. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure well to our south and west will be in control for the most part through the TAF period. A weak disturbance well to the NW will approach the region late today, that could bring slight chance of a late day or evening shower or thunderstorm to KSWF/KHPN. Given isolated coverage, it is still too early to mention terminal specifics, which would be handled later if necessary via tactical amendments. Sea breezes have already developed at KJFK/KBDR/KGON, and should also develop at KISP and strengthen at JFK into the afternoon. Confidence in sea breeze making it to KLGA inly medium, and if it does, direction could be more southerly and speeds higher after 20Z. Elsewhere, light/variable winds this AM should become SW by afternoon, and may do so an hour earlier than fcst. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Monday...Mainly VFR. Coastal sea breezes expected, Slight chance of a late day shower/tstm NW of NYC metro. .Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm. .Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Quiet through Thursday morning. Ocean seas will likely build to SCA criteria late Thursday and continue as such into Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through at least the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the nighttime high tide cycles. Will need to watch high tide cycle tonight for localized minor coastal flooding. Main area to watch would be across the Nassau south shore bays, where water levels should briefly touch or barely exceed minor thresholds. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains NY) and KHVN (New Haven CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...Tongue/PW AVIATION...JE/Goodman MARINE...BC/PW HYDROLOGY...PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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