Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 222052 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 452 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER HERE WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS EVENING AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC...IT APPEARS THAT LOWER-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY DIURNAL CU BUILDUP. IF ANYTHING...SOME CIRRUS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. IN ANY CASE...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MIXING TO AROUND 925 MB...WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE TEMP TO BE ABOUT 11C. CONSIDERING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT MINIMAL HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING...WENT WITH MAV MOS FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NAM MOS. HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TOO...BUT MAINLY AWAY FROM THE CITY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTERACTIONS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEEPEN AND MOVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE LAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OCEAN FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC METRO AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. ONCE THE SHORTWAVES PASS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE INITIALLY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE BEGINS TO MODIFY. BY THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW FLOW BY 00Z. GUSTS DIMINISH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AROUND 5-8 KT...BACKING TO THE W TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CU AT 3500-4500 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT THEREAFTER. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310 MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS JUST OVER 310 MAG...VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE. .WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT. .THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY. .SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS HERE WILL ALSO REMAIN UP TO 5 FT OR HIGHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL LEAVE SCA UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE ZONES. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER THE CURRENT SCA EXPIRES AT 00Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME AREAS IN THIS ZONE WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT. THINKING IS THAT THESE POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH AND ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT EXTEND THE SCA FURTHER IN TIME. FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS....OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN IT LOOKS AS IF A SCA WOULD NOT BE WARRANTED IN THIS CASE. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...AND LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THEREFORE EXPECTING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WIND AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC BAY MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JM/MPS MARINE...JC/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MET

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.