-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 301755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CU FIELD...AIDED BY A WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CONDS TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL CWA.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825
MB.

DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY
SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE
ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30.
MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND.

SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS
INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY...
WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM.
WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE
RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT.

COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE...
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON
ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS TUE AFTN.

TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE
PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD
THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FT
DEVELOP BY MIDLATE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
AREAS N/W OF NYC COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHRA THURSDAY PRIOR TO
18Z...BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SEABREEZE ALREADY THROUGH KJFK/KBDR/KGON. SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
KISP/KLGA/KHON THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECT TO APPROACH BUT NOT
MOVE THROUGH KTEB AND KEWR...SO ONLY BACK WINDS TO SW AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW AGAIN TONIGHT.
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP A TAD EARLY THURSDAY THAN IT DID TODAY.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHNAGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHNAGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEABREEZE FORECAST...BUT CHNAGES IN WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR...EXCPEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THESE OCCUR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN