Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260540 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front moving across this morning will be followed by another one later today. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday afternoon with high pressure building to the south of the region for Wednesday. A warm front crosses the region late Thursday followed by warm, humid and unsettled weather on Friday though the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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A weak cold front has shifted winds to the NW and dropped temperatures several degrees with its passage. There have been some gusty winds to accompany the passage as well but expect these to be relatively brief. Showers in vicinity of frontal boundary and relatively higher dewpoints, mainly across Eastern Long Island and into adjacent waters, with otherwise a dry overnight expected. The forcing for these showers can be attributed to the shortwave and associated positive vorticity advection aloft which will have the most intense portion pass to the east of the region by early this morning. The cold front moves across by this morning with all locations at that point expected to have NW flow and lower dewpoints. Lows were kept nearly the same as previous forecast, with a range from the lower 50s to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Another weak surface trough develops over the area Monday. Aloft, heights fall to the west of the area as next shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. Plenty of sunshine Monday morning, gives way to a some afternoon clouds especially north and west of NYC. A few isolated showers will again be possible across the interior. Dry conditions are expected Monday night. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the 70s and lower 80s. Monday night, lows fall into the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal temperatures through mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday as low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold front sags south into NY State on Friday. The front becomes stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will be "unsettled." Upper trough axis approaches Tuesday, passing Tuesday night. Perhaps a tad more instability Tuesday and trof/pseudo cold FROPA triggers a showers and perhaps a TS (instability is limited with dry mid levels). Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday. Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have POPs in for TSRA. Looks to remain unsettled through the holiday weekend at this time. LI`s as low as -5 C with long narrow CAPE`s and PWAT`s over 2 inches in a unidirectional flow supports potential for Flash Flooding - mainly in urban areas. Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above Friday into the weekend. No heat issues foreseen though. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period with high pressure south of the region. Winds will continue to become WNW-NW overnight. A brief period of winds 10-15 kt with a few gusts around 20 kt remain possible, but these should quickly diminish in the next hour or so with winds becoming 10 kt or less thereafter. Winds gradually back to the SW on Monday. Afternoon sea breeze development backs winds to the south at coastal terminals, 10 to 15 kt. There is a lower probability of a sea breeze at KEWR and KTEB with winds more likely staying SW-SSW. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday night...VFR. Slight chance of an eve shower NW of NYC metros. .Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm mainly north of the NYC metros and Long Island. .Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels through Monday night. Ocean seas will likely build to SCA criteria late Thursday and continue as such into Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through Thursday. There is potential for localized flash flooding associated with summer convection Friday through the weekend - mainly in urban areas. River flooding is not anticipated. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides are still running high with potentially another round of isolated minor coastal flooding for the south shore back bays, which could be seen with the high tides tonight (approximately between 10pm and 12am). The water levels would only be expected to touch the minor benchmarks, again for just a few gages in the south shore bays.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains NY) and KHVN (New Haven CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Tongue NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...DS MARINE...BC/Tongue HYDROLOGY...BC/Tongue TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM EQUIPMENT...

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