Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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308 FXUS61 KOKX 300442 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1242 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure build in through Tuesday night. A cold front will move across from the northwest Wednesday night, followed by high pressure through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Forecast is on track, minor changes made to reflect current observations. Clear skies overnight as a drier air mass moves in behind the cold front. N winds will diminish and veer NE late. There will be a wide range in low temps overnight thanks to radiational cooling in the outlying areas. Lows will range from the lower 70s in NYC, to 55-60 in the interior valleys and in the Long Island Pine Barrens. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Sunny skies will prevail on Tuesday, with temps about 5-10 degrees cooler than those of today, in the upper 70s and 80s. Mostly clear skies will also continue into Tue evening, then expect some clouds to drift in from the north as heights fall aloft and a weak mid level vort max approaches from the WNW. Lows Tue night should be a little milder as a light return S-SW flow develops, with lows 70-75 invof NYC, and in the 60s elsewhere. A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday, and possibly longer, at the ocean beaches via 3-4 ft very long period SE swell (13 seconds) generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday through Thursday...An amplifying upper level trough will move slowly southeast as a cold front also moves slowly southeast. In the absence of any low lvl waves of low pres along the front or interaction with moisture plumes from any tropical system, only scattered showers and TSTMs are in the forecast from 18z Wed N and W of NYC to 00z Fri across Eastern Long Island and southeast CT. Generally expecting 1/4-inch rainfall or less. Thursday Night through Sunday...will feature a slow moving dry and cool continental polar canadian air mass that will be gradually modifying as it advects slowly southeast across the area. Temperatures are forecast mainly in the 70s on Friday and Saturday with overnight lows mainly in the 50s and 60s. No rain is forecast. The tropics and subtropics are active. Monitor the evolution of all systems that will or could have at least indirect impacts on local area conditions, especially across our local Atlantic ocean coastal waters. Check web site www.nhc.noaa.gov routinely. The threat for rough surf and high risk for strong rip currents should continue through at least Wednesday due to persistent SE swells from Gaston. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build into the area through Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Northerly winds will diminish this evening with speeds dropping to less than 10 kt. Light NE to E winds develop Tue morning with seabreezes expected to develop at the coast. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between 17-19z. KLGA TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between 18-20z. KEWR TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between 18-20z. KTEB TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between 18-20z. KHPN TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between 18-20z. KISP TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between 18-20z. .Outlook for 00Z Wednesday through Saturday... .Tuesday Night-Wednesday Afternoon...VFR. .Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning...Showers/tstms possible with MVFR conditions. .Thursday Afternoon-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Combined seas via 2-3 ft wind waves and 2-3 ft long period swells generated by Gaston remain around 3-4 ft late this evening, and will likely remain so through Tue night. NWPS and WaveWatch continue to over-predict these swells for the most part, but Hurricane WaveWatch does build swells up to 5 ft for a short time late tonight into early Tue morning. With all this in mind cannot totally rule out an occasional set of 5-ft long period swells, but think combined seas of 3-4 ft should predominate, so no SCA will be issued attm, but will obviously monitor trends. Ocean seas will remain elevated into Thursday and possibly Friday due to swells generated by Gaston. The non-ocean waters should remain rather tranquil, although it could get a little rough as some of the ocean swells make it into the extreme eastern portion of Long Island Sound, western Block Island Sound, and the entrance to NY Harbor. Thursday night through Saturday...both winds and seas will approach SCA conditions across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters with NE winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas around 5 ft. Stay tuned to the latest National Hurricane Center forecasts, as a tropical cyclone may be passing well south of Long Island off the Mid Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate to severe drought conditions continue. Stay tuned for the next local drought statement scheduled for September 1st. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman/JP/PW SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...GC AVIATION... MARINE...GC/Goodman/PW HYDROLOGY...GC/Goodman

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