Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251604 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1104 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO SIG CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM AT THIS TIME. NICE TO SEE THE SUN AGAIN! TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMP SLOWLY FALL OFF BY MID- LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GUSTY WINDS LAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH ITS AXIS BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECM/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH EXCEPTION OF 24/12Z CMC GPDS - MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...ENDS UP STALLING OUT TO FAR TO THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE FRONT HAVE LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACT ON THE AREA. TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS ARE WITH THE INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE N AND RIDGING OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO DETERMINING THE EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW APPEARS STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...OTHERWISE HAVE GONE DRY OVER LAND MONDAY- TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LAYERS TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR NOW THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AS THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING PASSING OVER THE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WITH VFR AND A STRONG SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST POSSIBLE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SUN...MARGINAL VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. .MON...VFR. && .MARINE... GALE WARNING...WINDS NOW GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ON LAND IN THE NYC AREA AND THIS WILL MOVE OUT OVER ALL WATERS BY NOON. THIS EVENING...WINDS LOWER TO SCA LEVEL QUICKLY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF TO BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...BC/GOODMAN MARINE...BC/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...MALOIT CLIMATE...

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