-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 190757 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
357 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east of Long Island this morning, with
another cold front crossing tonight. High pressure will follow
Sunday through Tuesday. A frontal system will pass across the
area Wednesday into Wednesday Night followed by high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Shortwave trough over the Great Lakes this morning will pivot
towards the region late today.

At the surface, the cold front responsible for the heavy
showers and thunderstorms yesterday will push just east early
this morning. Morning fog/stratus and lingering Eastern showers
will dissipate with its passage through the early morning.

In its wake, a weak surface trough will linger over the region
today, with a cold front approaching from the west for tonight.

A much drier airmass in the mid-levels, and noticeably drier
airmass at the low-levels (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints today
versus mid/upper 70s of yesterday) will advect/mix down today.

With shortwave energy still well west and mid- level warming,
forcing and instability will be limited today. Would mainly
expect some diurnal cu along and north of afternoon surface sea
breeze. The mostly sunny conditions and warm temps aloft will
allow temps to quickly rise well into the 80s today, around 90
NYC/NJ metro. Heat indices will run close to air temperatures.

Residual southerly swells of 4 to 5 ft @ 6-7 sec period this
morning favor a moderate risk of rip currents for NYC and W/LI
beaches, with a high risk for E/LI beaches. Swells will slowly
subside later this afternoon into the evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vigorous shortwave trough approaches this evening and crosses the
region tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front crosses the region
this evening. High-res models indicating some organized convection
developing/tracking across central PA/NY late this afternoon along
this front, but expectation is that this activity quickly weakens as
it approaches and crosses into the NW hills this evening due to lack
of instability. Elsewhere, a low chance for an isolated shower
overnight with shortwave/frontal passage.

Zonal upper flow ensues for Sun into Mon. At the surface...high
pressure builds in from the west Sunday into Sunday Night, and then
gradually translates to the south and southeast Sunday night. The
result will be a sunny, comfortably dry, and seasonably warm day on
Sunday.

As the high sinks south and east, heat and humidity will build
build into the region Monday into Tuesday. Highs will generally be
well into the 80s to lower 90s on Monday, and possibly lower to mid
90s for Tuesday.

Models are indicating potential for isolated diurnal convection on
Tuesday as instability increases and convectively induced vort
energy rotates around the upper ridge. Low predictability at this
point.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Decent model agreement with shortwave energy digging into the
Great lakes Tue into Tue Night and then towards the NE US on
Wed. An associated frontal system will bring the next chance for
organized shower and tstm activity late Tue into Wed.

A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week. The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move east of the region this morning and then
another cold front will move across tonight. This will be
followed by high pressure.

MVFR to locally IFR conditions with fog and stratus are
expected for all terminals before 10Z and then after that time,
just for some interior and eastern terminals. VFR expected to
return for all terminals after 13Z and continue through the rest
of the TAF period.

Timing of categorical changes could be off by 1-3 hours.

Winds are light under 10 kt with a general W-NW flow into
early today and then will be near 10 kt as winds back to a more
south to southwest direction with sea breeze development
this afternoon. Winds subside again tonight, becoming variable
in direction but overall exhibiting a west to southwest flow for
city and coastal terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Late tonight-Monday night...VFR.
.Tuesday-Tuesday night...A chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR or lower conditions possible,otherwise VFR. SW gusts
to 15-20 kt late afternoon and at night.
.Wednesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
possible. SW gusts 15-20 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly swells of 5 to 6 ft will gradually subside from west
to east this morning, with sub-sca conditions then expected
through Tuesday afternoon as high pressure traverses southeast
through the waters.

Winds and seas will increase ahead of a cold frontal passage late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas on the ocean may builds to SCA levels
Tuesday Night and continue in southerly swells into Wed ngt.

Winds and seas thereafter are expected to fall below SCA levels for
late week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through Monday.

Impacts from potential showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday are uncertain at this point.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC/NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV