Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 300150 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 950 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday. Low pressure will impact the area Thursday night through Saturday. High pressure builds in for Sunday through Monday night. Another area of low pressure affects the region Tuesday. High pressure builds back on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High pressure continues to build to the north overnight. Scattered clouds, and continued winds late this evening and possibly into the overnight will have an impact on overnight lows. Assuming north winds of at least 5 kt continue, ideal radiational cooling may not occur. Raised lows slightly in spots. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s to the upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure drifts across the forecast area on Thursday, resulting in fair weather and light winds. Expect mid and high clouds to move in from the west during the afternoon and evening. A blend of the guidance, which was in good agreement, was used for temperatures. Clouds continue to thicken and lower Thursday night as low pressure approaches the region. POPs gradually increase overnight. Will cap POPs at high chance for now. Precipitation will generally be plain rain, however a wintry mix may be possible across the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut. Temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. Lows Thursday night will fall into the 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure system will track east on Friday. As this storm approaches, precipitation will spread across the area from west to east. Rain may come down moderate to heavy at times Friday into Friday night as a secondary low develops off the Mid Atlantic coast. This storm may produce anywhere between 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall from Friday into Saturday morning. While there could be some urban and poor drainage nuisance flooding, impacts on rivers and streams is not expected. After some lingering showers Saturday morning, surface high pressure builds in thereafter, keeping the area dry through the rest of the weekend into Monday. High pressure moves offshore Monday night, allowing for another low to affect the area Tuesday. Temperatures during the long term will be seasonable, with the exception of Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure builds in through Thursday with low pressure approaching Thursday night. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The gusts to near 18-22 kt with the N flow will be slow to subside this evening but most gusts are expected to be before 05Z. Some locations could see gusts drop off for one hour and then redevelop the next hour. Winds drop to 10 kt or less overnight with sea breezes developing Thursday afternoon with wind speeds remaining below 10 kt. Some interior terminals will have winds become light and variable in direction Thursday. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gust end time could be off by 1-2 hours. Sea breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours. KLGA TAF Comments: Gust end time could be off by 1-2 hours. Sea breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours. KEWR TAF Comments: Gust end time could be off by 1-2 hours. Sea breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours. KTEB TAF Comments: Gust end time could be off by 1-2 hours. Sea breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Gust end time could be off by 1-2 hours. Sea breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours. KISP TAF Comments: Gust end time could be off by 1-2 hours. Sea breeze timing Thursday could be off by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 02Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday Night...Mainly VFR, chance of rain/snow mix inland and rain near coast, highest chances overnight. .Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions developing in rain for for metro terminals, with IFR in wintry mix possible for northern terminals in the morning. MVFR/IFR conditions in rain in the afternoon. SE winds G20-25 KT at the coast. .Friday night and Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain with gradual improvement by Saturday afternoon/evening. E/NE winds G20-30KT at coastal terminals. .Sunday-Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Northerly winds continue overnight as low pressure tracks out to sea and high pressure builds into the region. Winds overnight are expected to generally remain below SCA levels, however a few isolated gusts to 25 kt may be possible, especially on the eastern waters. Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Conditions through Thursday night. Winds should remain below 25 kt through Friday morning. An approaching frontal system will increase the pressure gradient across the waters and bring wind gusts along the ocean waters to 25 kt to 30 kt Friday afternoon into Saturday. Peconic and Gardiner`s Bays may see gusts 25 kt to 30 kt late Friday night into Saturday, while the back bays may see 25 kt gusts Friday night. Winds diminish Saturday night, and remain below SCA criteria for the rest of the long term. Waves build to 5 to 8 ft on the ocean Friday night into Saturday morning, then diminish Saturday night, but should remain above 5 ft through Sunday morning. Thereafter, waves remain below 5 ft through the rest of the long term. && .HYDROLOGY... Between 1 and 1.5 inches of QPF is possible from Thursday night through Saturday morning. While there could be some urban and poor drainage nuisance flooding, impacts on rivers and streams is not expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... An approaching low pressure system will likely bring some minor coastal flood impacts to vulnerable coastal communities during the Friday Night high tide. Tidal departures of 1 to 1 1/2 ft are needed to reach minor flood levels and 2 to 2 1/2 ft for moderate flood levels during that time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Fig NEAR TERM...BC/PW SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/Fig/PW HYDROLOGY...BC/Fig TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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