-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 050003
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
703 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSIT THE AREA
TONIGHT...AS IT DEPARTS...SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL USHER IN MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE APPROX 10 DEG F WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A STEADY
SLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME UPWARD MOTION...NOT TOO STRONG...SO WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR THE DAY.

FOR THU NIGHT...POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S SO ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE LONG TERM FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT IS PASSED A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN PUSH INTO TO CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW
OR SLEET. THIS CHANGE-OVER WILL LIKELY PROGRESS FROM INTERIOR NY
AND NW CT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. PRECIP SHOULD
MOSTLY END BY SATURDAY MORNING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS MADE BEYOND SATURDAY. JUST
SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. AFTER MOSTLY FAIR WX ON SAT AND
SUNDAY... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND UP INTO ERN
CANADA BY MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE START TO RESULT IN SOME
FROZEN OR MIXED PRECIP.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TAF PERIOD FEATURES GRADUALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND ISOLATED
IFR...BECOMING MORE IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SOME
SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A PERSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS DURATION SO AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO BETTER REFINE THE
TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF MVFR COULD START AS EARLY AS
02Z OR LATE AS 05Z. CONDITIONS COULD FLUCTUATE ONE CATEGORY FROM
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF MVFR COULD START AS EARLY AS
02Z OR LATE AS 05Z. CONDITIONS COULD FLUCTUATE ONE CATEGORY FROM
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF MVFR COULD START AS EARLY AS
01Z OR LATE AS 04Z. CONDITIONS COULD FLUCTUATE ONE CATEGORY FROM
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF MVFR COULD START AS EARLY AS
01Z OR LATE AS 04Z. CONDITIONS COULD FLUCTUATE ONE CATEGORY FROM
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF MVFR COULD START AS EARLY AS
01Z OR LATE AS 04Z. CONDITIONS COULD FLUCTUATE ONE CATEGORY FROM
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF MVFR COULD START AS EARLY AS
02Z OR LATE AS 06Z. CONDITIONS COULD FLUCTUATE ONE CATEGORY FROM
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR. -SHRA LATE WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT.
LIGHT SW FLOW.
.FRI...IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN PERIODS OF RAIN. WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER LATE. CHC -SN/PL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS CONTINUE RATHER LIGHT AS OF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SE
LATE AT NIGHT. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL. WINDS AND
SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY.

THESE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SEAS WILL BUILD AND REMAIN RATHER ROUGH ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING YET AGAIN AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS.

WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH
WIND/SEA BUOY CLIMATOLOGY FOLLOWED FOR THE SHELTERED WATERS
SURROUNDING LI.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EACH EVENT COULD BRING POSSIBLY AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
-- Changed Discussion --
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/99
HYDROLOGY...99
EQUIPMENT...