Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 052114 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... BECAUSE HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY... WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE REPLACED BY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20. BECAUSE ONLY FLURRIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ORANGE...PUTNAM...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES WHERE MUCH LESS SNOW FELL...THE ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED. A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW REDUCING VSBY TO 1/2 MILE IS POSSIBLE WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW THRU 7 PM MAINLY ACROSS METRO NJ...NYC AND LONG ISLAND. FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UNTIL 10 PM...LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ADVECTING EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...AS AN ARCTIC HI PRES SYS BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE BACK EDGE OF SNOW GRADUALLY CROSSING NYC TERMINALS ATTM HOWEVER PROGRESS HAS BEEN SLOW. SNOW STARTING TO LIGHTEN UP AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASING DESPITE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDING ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL TAFS. SOME RADAR ENHANCEMENT STILL BACK ACROSS PA AND HRRR GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS THROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL EXPECT VFR TO RETURN AFTER 00Z BUT MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR SO. WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE W-NW AROUND 10 KT. TOTAL RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: KISP...5-7 INCHES. KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES. KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 01Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 01Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDING DOWN IN NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AFT 02Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ007>012. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GC NEAR TERM...GC SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BC/GC HYDROLOGY...BC/GC EQUIPMENT...GC

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