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000
FXUS61 KOKX 301135
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
735 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over southern Quebec will maintain a moist northeast
flow off the Atlantic Ocean into the weekend as low pressure
spins over the Ohio Valley. The unsettled weather may continue
into early next week before high pressure begins to exert its
influence from the north for mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor changes were made with this update as the forecast is
mainly on track.

Unsettled weather will continue through today as a cut off low
meanders over the Mid-West while at the same time, a frontal
boundary slowly moves north toward the area. Models continue to
differ significantly with rainfall amounts. Given that much of
what has been on the radar for the past few hours remains either
west or east of the area, decided to lower QPF amounts quite a bit
from last night`s forecast package. Only expecting about half an
inch or slightly more through this afternoon for Long Island and
the New York City metro area with lesser amounts for the Lower
Hudson Valley and inland Southern Connecticut.

It will be breezy today as a tight pressure gradient between the
high pressure to our north over Southern Quebec and the low over
the Mid-West continues. Winds could gust to 35-40 mph, mainly
along the coast.

With the blocking pattern in place, persistence will be the
forecast. Continued cloudy today. Highs will be a few degrees
lower than yesterday, with portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and
inland Southern Connecticut not even reaching 60. Generally, upper
50s to lower 60s for high temperatures for the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Chances for rain continue into the short term with the cut off
low remaining to the west and the frontal boundary to our south.
Again, models differ on exact placement of the heaviest rain.
Expecting anywhere from 3/4 to 1 1/3 inches of rain, with the
heaviest falling across Eastern Long Island from this morning
through the day Saturday.

Winds diminish tonight as the high pressure retreats farther
north into Canada. Temperatures will be a bit warmer on Saturday,
but still a bit below normal for this time of year, generally
lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term period as a stagnant
and unsettled weather pattern continues for the weekend and into
early next week as a stacked cutoff low remains over the Ohio
Valley as a ridge over the Western Atlantic remains in place. Models
continue to show the upper ridge gradually weakening and shifting
south enough early next week to allow the upper low to finally start
moving northeast early next week.

At the surface, stacked low pressure sits over the Ohio
Valley, with a stationary front running northeast from the Mid
Atlantic and southeast of Long Island through the weekend. A
series of weak waves running along this front will produce periods
of rain this weekend. Then as the stacked low finally begins to
lift northeast early next week, expect the the main moisture/lift
axis to also weaken and lift NE. Lingering scattered showers could
continue through early next week via cold pool instability
interacting with the maritime air mass.

Thereafter, potential for deep layered ridging developing for mid
week as the region lies under ridging of an omega blocked pattern.
The dry ridged pattern may continue into late week, but will have
to monitor the evolution of Hurricane Matthew. Please refer to
the National Hurricane Center forecasts for further information.

Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday,
then return to near seasonable for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Terminal area will be in between high pressure to the northeast
and low pressure to the southwest today.

MVFR this morning, bcmg IFR south to north late this morning into
early afternoon.

NE winds gusting to 25-35 KT at city/coastal terminals and 20-25
KT at inland terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of IFR may be off by a couple of hours.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of IFR may be off by a couple of hours.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR may be off by a couple of hours.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of IFR may be off by a couple of hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of IFR may be off by a couple of hours.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of IFR may be off by a couple of hours.

.Outlook for 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...
.Saturday...IFR/MVFR in rain.
.Saturday Night-Sunday Night...MVFR or lower possible with showers.
.Monday-Tuesday...VFR with isolated to scattered showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale winds are expected to continue today as the tight pressure
gradient with the high over Southern Canada and low over the Mid-
West continues. The Gale Warnings were extended into early
tonight, but the winds should gradually diminish tonight as the
high retreats farther north into Canada. Winds should come down
below Gale Warning criteria after 8 pm tonight, with SCA winds
expected through the remainder of the night. Seas on the ocean
will range from 8-13 ft, while 5-7 ft are expected on the Sound.

SCA criteria should continue into mid Saturday morning for the
ocean waters, while everywhere else, winds will come down below 25
kt around sun rise. Waves over the Sound will also come down below
5 ft by around sun rise on Saturday. Waves will diminish on the
ocean waters as well, but they will remain at or above 5 ft
through the day Saturday.

Conditions fall below SCA levels Sat night into early Sunday as
easterly flow weakens and seas subside. These sub-SCA conditions
will remain likely for early next week under a weak pressure
gradient.

Seas on the ocean waters start to increase mid week with small craft
conditions returning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a high degree of uncertainty on the amount of rainfall
through Saturday. 1-1 1/2 inches of QPF possible through Saturday
night. The prolonged nature of the rain event should preclude any
hydrologic issues.

No significant rainfall for early to mid next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With slight strengthening of ENE gales this morning`s high tide
cycle, would expect surge to at least match or even slightly
exceed that of last night`s. With a slightly higher astronomical
high tide, this should result in widespread minor coastal flooding
for the above mentioned areas.

Along western Long Island sound and the eastern bays of Long
Island, can`t rule out localized minor coastal flooding or wave
splashover in the most vulnerable northeast and east facing spots
during high tide.

Although wind fields weaken for this evening`s high tide,
widespread minor flooding continues to be a concern for the south
shore of Long Island and thus a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect for this time frame for Southern Nassau County.

Additionally, a persistent easterly sweep of 6 to 10 ft surf
today will likely result in minor to moderate beach erosion
issues at the the ocean beachfront.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ074-
     075-080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-335-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...