Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 300442
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1242 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
High pressure build in through Tuesday night. A cold front will
move across from the northwest Wednesday night, followed by high
pressure through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast is on track, minor changes made to reflect current
Clear skies overnight as a drier air mass moves in behind the cold
front. N winds will diminish and veer NE late. There will be a
wide range in low temps overnight thanks to radiational cooling in
the outlying areas. Lows will range from the lower 70s in NYC, to
55-60 in the interior valleys and in the Long Island Pine Barrens.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Sunny skies will prevail on Tuesday, with temps about 5-10
degrees cooler than those of today, in the upper 70s and 80s.
Mostly clear skies will also continue into Tue evening, then
expect some clouds to drift in from the north as heights fall
aloft and a weak mid level vort max approaches from the WNW. Lows
Tue night should be a little milder as a light return S-SW flow
develops, with lows 70-75 invof NYC, and in the 60s elsewhere.
A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday, and possibly
longer, at the ocean beaches via 3-4 ft very long period SE swell
(13 seconds) generated by distant Hurricane Gaston.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday through Thursday...An amplifying upper level trough will
move slowly southeast as a cold front also moves slowly southeast.
In the absence of any low lvl waves of low pres along the front or
interaction with moisture plumes from any tropical system, only
scattered showers and TSTMs are in the forecast from 18z Wed N and W
of NYC to 00z Fri across Eastern Long Island and southeast CT.
Generally expecting 1/4-inch rainfall or less.
Thursday Night through Sunday...will feature a slow moving dry and
cool continental polar canadian air mass that will be gradually
modifying as it advects slowly southeast across the area.
Temperatures are forecast mainly in the 70s on Friday and Saturday
with overnight lows mainly in the 50s and 60s. No rain is
The tropics and subtropics are active. Monitor the evolution of all
systems that will or could have at least indirect impacts on local
area conditions, especially across our local Atlantic ocean coastal
waters. Check web site www.nhc.noaa.gov routinely.
The threat for rough surf and high risk for strong rip currents
should continue through at least Wednesday due to persistent SE
swells from Gaston.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will build into the area through Tuesday.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Northerly winds will diminish this evening with speeds dropping to
less than 10 kt. Light NE to E winds develop Tue morning with
seabreezes expected to develop at the coast.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between
KLGA TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between
KEWR TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between
KTEB TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between
KHPN TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield
KISP TAF Comments: Seabreeze expected to impact airfield between
.Outlook for 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday Night-Wednesday Afternoon...VFR.
.Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning...Showers/tstms possible with
Combined seas via 2-3 ft wind waves and 2-3 ft long period swells
generated by Gaston remain around 3-4 ft late this evening, and
will likely remain so through Tue night. NWPS and WaveWatch
continue to over-predict these swells for the most part, but
Hurricane WaveWatch does build swells up to 5 ft for a short time
late tonight into early Tue morning. With all this in mind cannot
totally rule out an occasional set of 5-ft long period swells, but
think combined seas of 3-4 ft should predominate, so no SCA will
be issued attm, but will obviously monitor trends.
Ocean seas will remain elevated into Thursday and possibly Friday
due to swells generated by Gaston.
The non-ocean waters should remain rather tranquil, although it
could get a little rough as some of the ocean swells make it into
the extreme eastern portion of Long Island Sound, western Block
Island Sound, and the entrance to NY Harbor.
Thursday night through Saturday...both winds and seas will approach
SCA conditions across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters with NE
winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas around 5 ft.
Stay tuned to the latest National Hurricane Center forecasts, as
a tropical cyclone may be passing well south of Long Island off
the Mid Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday.
No significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate
to severe drought conditions continue. Stay tuned for the next
local drought statement scheduled for September 1st.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-