Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251503 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1103 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WORKING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THINNING OUT AND DISSIPATING AS THEY WORK FARTHER EAST. THUS...LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF NYC...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE WEST. PARTS OF ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY GO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY WITH W/SW WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING GUSTY BY AFT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING. SOME 5000 FT CIGS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE SOME LOCATION SEE A PERIOD OF BKN OR EVEN OVC CONDITIONS. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .SUN-TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON SUN-SUN EVE...HIGHEST NYC METRO. .WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHRA.
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&& .MARINE... CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ NEAR TERM...DW AVIATION...BC

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